The New York Times, April 5, 2006
Quake Adds to Fear That Indonesian Volcano Will Erupt
By PETER GELLING
KALIURANG, Indonesia, Monday, June 5 — Mount Merapi has long been considered
one of Indonesia's most unpredictable volcanoes. Its last major eruption in 1994
caught everyone by surprise when superheated clouds of sulfuric gas killed 66 people
in this village on the mountain's high southern slopes.
Today, scientists, who have been sleeping in their offices since activity first increased
on April 12, have much better equipment to monitor the towering cone of 9,800 feet.
Yet Merapi's fickle nature is evident from the graphs marking its activity. In sharp
peaks and troughs, red lines rise and fall daily across a period of more than a month.
Fears of an eruption increased significantly after a powerful earthquake struck the
nearby Yogyakarta area on May 27, killing more than 6,200 and setting off a major
rescue effort. The red lines shot off the chart as the earthquake's shockwaves
slammed into the side of the mountain, disturbing the magma bubbling inside. Then
the activity quickly dwindled.
But over the last month, increasingly frequent tremors, lava flows and clouds of gas
have suggested a significant eruption is about to occur.
Subandriyo, head of the Merapi division for the Volcanology Center in Yogyakarta,
who has been watching the mountain now for 10 years, said that given the current
activity, it was unlikely Merapi would settle down without some sort of eruption.
The lava dome, formed as magma seeps from the crater and cools, is now about four
million cubic yards, growing by a few hundred thousand cubic yards a day, he said.
"The bigger the lava dome gets, the more unstable it becomes," said Mr. Subandriyo,
who like many Indonesians uses only one name. When it collapses, he said, it will
send a cascade of volcanic rocks tumbling down the mountain, accompanied by
clouds of sulfuric gas, which can reach a temperature of over 550 degrees Fahrenheit.
He said the lava dome was still fairly secure, though it was somewhat weakened after
the earthquake.
Most volcanoes have vertical eruptions, firing lava and debris high into the air.
Eruptions at Mount Merapi, however, flow down its sides, affecting only the
surrounding areas. Yogyakarta, an ancient city 20 miles south with a population of
about a million, was badly damaged in the quake but will almost certainly be spared
an eruption, Mr. Subandriyo said.
One of Merapi's most serious threats are the hot gases, which escape the mountain's
vents several times a day. So far they have reached villages closest to the crater,
about two miles away. Once the gas clouds start extending more than three miles,
Mr. Subandriyo said, it is time to worry.
About 200,000 villagers live within about four miles of the volcano, and more than
30,000 of them live in the most vulnerable areas. A number of relief agencies who
came to Yogyakarta more than a month ago to prepare for the eruption quickly
diverted their aid to Bantul, the district hardest hit by the quake, more than 40 miles
south of Merapi's southern slopes.
The possibility of another disaster so soon after the earthquake has many aid
agencies on edge.
"It would be a horrendous distraction to have two disasters, one from the north and
one from the south," said Craig Owen, a spokesman for Oxfam, which was one of the
first relief agencies to attend to victims of the earthquake, primarily because it already
had a team monitoring Merapi.
Villagers living on the mountain's slopes know Merapi's temperamental behavior all too
well. They have evacuated and returned home and evacuated again countless times
since the volcano first started showing increased activity more than a month ago.
Thousands of villagers, mostly men, have long defied government orders to leave and
continue to tend to their farms.
Many, after numerous scares, have mastered the art of fleeing. Villagers often sleep in
groups on the slopes, small fires keeping them warm, with someone keeping watch.
Motorbikes and flatbed trucks are kept close by and communities have developed
signals, like banging on lamp posts with hammers.
Merapi first unleashed in grand form on May 15, when several large clouds of sulfuric
gas poured out of its crater, sending villagers running for their lives and blanketing the
volcano's southern and western slopes with ash.
The local people and scientists prepared for a big eruption, but the lava dome did not
collapse. It was stopped short by an unusual volcanic phenomenon, Mr. Subandriyo
said.
Usually, when the pressure of the gases magma rising inside the volcano's belly is
released, they dislodge the lava dome, setting off a full eruption. But the new lava
dome that has formed over the last month did so behind the remains of old lava
domes, making it more difficult to dislodge.
Mbah Marijan, a 79-year-old mystic who lives in Kaliurang, directly below the lava
dome, has been appointed by the sultan of Yogyakarta to make annual offerings to
the volcano. He receives a constant parade of villagers seeking advice on how to
appease Merapi's rollicking spirits, which according to Javanese legend are now
having a feast.
Late one night last week, Mr. Marijan and a large entourage walked barefoot through
villages in the shadow of Merapi's smoldering cauldron. In perfect silence they walked,
adorned in ornate Javanese dress, praying for God to protect them.
Traditional offerings of rice and other bits of food hang from doorways of the small
houses, surrounded by green rice paddies, along Merapi's ascent. Many people here,
in a population that is mostly Muslim but also includes those who harbor ancient
animist beliefs, said Merapi was angry because its land has been pillaged. Volcanic
sand is considered excellent building material and is used in construction throughout
central Java.
Despite the offerings and prayers by those who live on the mountain, Marijan said,
their ultimate fate rests with God.
"I am not a scientist, and I am not psychic," he said. "We can only pray for Merapi
not to harm us."
Copyright © 2006 The New York Times Company.
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