THE NEW MEDITERRANEAN STRATEGY OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE BALKANS

"I believe that in the Mediterranean lies one of the main keys to the success of the unification of the European Continent." (Susanna Agnelli)

The main topic of this article are both the new elements in the European Union's approach to the Mediterranean region and the expectations in this regard that were opened by the 1995 Barcelona Conference on the new Euro-Mediterranean partnership. Of course, when analyzing this question one cannot avoid considerations with regard to the current transformation of the European Union that is being dealt with by the 1996 Intergovernmental Conference. Both members and non-members of this leading European grouping are expecting this Conference to introduce significant changes that should make the European Union a more efficient and more homogenous factor of European and world politics, and one with a strengthened identity. The selection of facts that are the foundation of the analysis was based upon a firm conviction that, despite all difficulties and oscillations, the process of European integration - with the European Union as its driving force - is an irreversible and "historically inevitable" trend that will probably be of decisive influence upon developments at the end of this century and that in the middle and long run will conceptualize the future of the entire European area.

1. The Barcelona Conference of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the European Union and the Mediterranean countries from the southern shore inaugurated the new Mediterranean strategy of united Europe. This strategy was a subject of lively discussions at the end of the '80s and the beginning of the '90s, but for quite a long time there were no concrete breakthroughs or achievements. This strategy was for the first time conceptualized on a basis of global partnership and multilateralism - which in the Cold War era was not only impossible to accomplish, but also hard to imagine - and contains a coherently drawn and ambitiously set plan of action for a new Euro-Mediterranean strategy. Making, in a way, certain corrections in its "obsession" with the European East, Western Europe was united - to a degree higher than is typical of its Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) - and has explicitly expressed concern that dangers which could obstruct the new European balance are not necessarily coming only from a post-communist terrain, but also from areas south of our continent, i.e. from the Mediterranean which is heavily burdened with numerous political, economic and social tensions. The Barcelona Conference has induced constructive cooperation among partners on the southern coast, that carry the burden of mutual conflicts and animosities.In the forefront of the new Euro-Mediterranean partnership is the European Union's attempt to contribute - in cooperation with states from the south coast - the establishment of an environment that would eventually make the Mediterranean area a region of lasting peace and stability. Europe's approach toward the Mediterranean (based upon recommendations of the European Parliament, October 1994, and the decisions of the heads of state of the European Union, June 1995 in Cannes has proven to be more integral and profound than was the case with Euro- Mediterranean relations ever before, including also the "Euro-Arab dialogue" led in the mid-seventies. Namely, partners from the two Mediterranean coasts have not limited themselves to partial and technical measures in different fields of political and economic cooperation as was mostly the case in the past, but rather have tried to cope with the very roots of instability in the Mediterranean in a relatively integral way. In Barcelona a more or less complete consent was achieved that underdevelopment, poverty and a lack of democracy were the main reasons for a chronic political instability in the Mediterranean.

2. In the new EU’s strategy towards the Mediterranean one of the most prominent places was given to the establishment of civic societies and democratic institutions based upon a scrupulous respect for human rights in the entire area. All those values that are the basis of the OSCE, the Council of Europe and the European Union and that are no more debatable in Europe, were accepted in Barcelona Conference as standards of a future Euro-Mediterranean cooperation and of internal systems of all of its participants. The adaptation to conditions of Mediterranean cooperation - as proposed by the European Union to its Mediterranean neighborhood - was connected in the first place with profound internal democratic transformations in all states from the south coast, concerning attitudes toward human rights and democracy in general. Multi-culturalism, tolerance for differences and pluralism as values of the Mediterranean area par excellence, with abandoning xenophobia and fascist-like concepts saying that for different ethnic and religious groups it is "impossible to live together" (concepts that are so spread and so irritant, but unfortunately also frequent in the practice of Mediterranean, and especially Balkan, political conflicts), in Barcelona were raised to the pedestal of supreme principles that in the future should much more determine relations in the Euro-Mediterranean community of nations. Also, it is being expected that the Mediterranean countries do what Western Europe and its Trans-Atlantic partners have harmonized with East and Central Europe in the Paris Charter of the CSCE in 1990: to accept the attitude that general and regional security and prosperity are not only inseparable from internal political processes in individual countries, but also that all members of the international community have the concrete obligation to promote democracy and tolerance through the UN and regional institutions.

3 Respect of the mentioned principles is a very significant for prospects of the Mediterranean cooperation, especially as seen from the perspective of the Mediterranean members of the European Union. It must be said that some countries from the south Mediterranean coast have seen numerous dangers in this because they thought of their societies as not yet ready to accept such a type of obligations. In spite of that, and with concession given to these countries by emphasizing in the Declaration the "respect of sovereignty" of all participants in Euro-Mediterranean cooperation, there is no doubt that the documents of the Barcelona Conference see that also in the Mediterranean the attitude toward human rights and basic freedoms of individuals and groups should no more be within the realm of untouchable jurisdiction of sovereign states, but should rather become a legitimate concern of all actors of cooperation. The responsibility of governments for their behavior with regard to their own population and the transparency of measures undertaken in the field of human rights represent a specific "entrance fee" for using the arrangements that are offered by the Barcelona Conference in favor of the Mediterranean non-members of the European Union. The participants saw the promotion of the described processes as the precondition of accelerated democratization of the entire Mediterranean area and a limitation of violence and all kinds of extremism, especially of the type that was, unfortunately, so persistently demonstrated in the first half of the 90s in Algeria, the Middle East and on the territory of the former Yugoslavia. 3. The European Union adopted far-reaching decisions in the field of security, arms control, struggle against drug traffic and terrorism, and it indicated - upon initiative of France - also the conclusion of a Mediterranean pact on confidence building measures in the region. The Barcelona Declaration has slightly opened the door to new political and security partnership of the two coasts. The adopted solutions in this field were a result of a common assessment by the participants that after the break-up of bipolarism and the end of bloc confrontation there was established a specific "security vacuum" that in some aspects was seriously increasing the security risks. The Euro-Mediterranean partnership in the field of security, inaugurated in Barcelona, was actually based upon a philosophy identical to the one which is the foundation of the partnership offered to Eastern Europe, formulated within the "Partnership for Peace" concept: a gradual joining of the Euro-Atlantic system of security with NATO as a pillar, that in the non-bloc world should represent an embryo of a general system of collective security. The idea of a Mediterranean pact on confidence building measures in the region is based upon a few aims: to promote cooperation and cooperative attitudes - with all necessary realism - in the field of security that will eventually lead to a deepening of mutual understanding and confidence among the partners on both coasts and will gradually attract the Mediterranean area, namely the individual Mediterranean countries, to the European sphere of stability. In the realization of this concept the European Union is counting in the first phase on countries that already now do not have too many reservations regarding this idea (like Israel, Morocco and, maybe, Egypt), expecting that in the perspective the majority of the countries on the south coast will join. In this context one should look upon the promotion of forces known as EUROFORCE, or EUROMARFOR - two multinational European formations with a French, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese staff, that by its nature and function, but also by its geographic location, should play an important role in the entire region. These forces do not have a defense function in the narrowest sense of the word, because this is within NATO's functions. They are primarily envisaged for control of humanitarian crises and possible peaceful operations.4 These forces should - as France, Italy and Spain are expecting - to merge in the future with other European multinational groups of the kind, thus creating a nucleus for the development of the concept of Common Defense Policy (CDF), initiated in Maastricht. Realization of the principles adopted in the Barcelona Declaration could significantly alleviate the existing security risks in the Mediterranean. It is generally felt that reasons for such expectations could be found in the already mentioned new and modern approach to the concept of international security that was demonstrated in the Conference documents. This concept is based upon the standpoint that in the modern international community interdependence of phenomena that create security of a country, a sub-region or a broader area, and also the planet in general, has reached such a degree that it becomes inappropriate to reduce the key factors of security only to military-political parameters. There is growing evidence that the modern concept of security implies a certain reduction of the role of military power to a realistic proportion and the inclusion of a number of factors of a political, economic, technological, ecological and cultural character. Such an approach is especially relevant for the consideration of political and security issues of the Mediterranean area, that always has been a crossroads and meeting point of different civilizations, cultural and political concepts.

4. The philosophy of the new Mediterranean strategy of the European Union is to a high degree determined by the respect for the new position of Europe in international relations which, understandably, requires a new security optics and political cooperation with regard to the Mediterranean countries. Namely, the Mediterranean countries are nowadays facing the fact that, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Europe - together with the North-American partners - is finding itself on the path toward finding a new balance and a new identity that is based not on fear and rivalry, but rather upon interests and a "community of values". The Barcelona Conference was the first and very significant step in getting the south Mediterranean coast closer to the mentioned "community of values". Namely, the new Euro-Mediterranean partnership is being established in parallel to major re-considerations going on within the European Union. The majority of European Union's members share the view that the time has come to open a new phase in the development of the Union, a phase that will make this grouping more able to cope with modern changes and challenges. It is generally estimated that the successful future of the European Union will depend to the highest possible degree on the success in the search of compatibility between the need for a further deepening of integration of the members and a necessity of horizontal broadening of the Union. Equally, this future will very much depend upon such transformation of Community institutions that will enable bigger efficiency of common action in the field of foreign policy and defense. In other words, the Union is facing a task to harmonize its ability for its own internal advancement (first of all by becoming closer to each citizen of the Union), by strengthening its ability to act united beyond its borders, an ability that is necessary for facing modern problems in Europe and the Mediterranean. The European strategy with regard to responses to the mentioned challenges includes, inter alia, the following steps: The Intergovernmental Conference that should harmonize and make universally acceptable all the agreed changes, the transition to a single currency, the complete implementation of the Schengen Agreements within the European Union, new inter-European financial arrangements, the revision of the Brussels Agreement on the establishment of the West European Union (WEU) etc. Maybe the biggest challenge for the European Union is the task to continue with horizontal broadening, namely that new states join "as they go" the new European standards as states with an associate status, candidates for full membership from Central and East Europe, including the Baltic countries, as well as Malta and Cyprus. The Reflection Group, composed of prominent European politicians and intellectuals by decision of the Council of Europe and with the task to offer strategic consideration with regard to further evolution of the European Union, stressed - not without reason - that the indicated innovative approach should be necessary if one has in mind the spreading of crises and the widening of the gap between the North and the South that is provoking dramatic structural instabilities in international political and economic relations. The Group has also come to the conclusion that members of the Union must fully develop their own feeling of common responsibility and demonstrate their ability to work on concepts of a new global scenario in international relations that is adapted to the political and economic weight of Europe. Judging by all facts, the Intergovernmental Conference initiated in Torino this year is a first step in this direction.

5. In the economic field the new Mediterranean strategy of the European Union has also set very ambitious aims. This strategy is based upon the promotion of the development of the Mediterranean South, so as to decrease the social and migration pressures upon Europe, especially in the view of prospects of changes in demographic relations between the south and north coast. If the existing tendencies were to be continued, up to the year 2015 the European population of the Mediterranean would expand for only 13 million, and the non-European one (that is nowadays producing only 6% of the entire Mediterranean gross national product!) for even 170 million people. It is not difficult to imagine what are the migration pressures that the European Union will be facing, especially its Mediterranean members France, Italy and Spain. The Barcelona Declaration has put foundations for the introduction of a Free Trade Area in the entire Mediterranean region that should remove all customs and non-customs barriers in the exchange of goods and services, with a respect for obligations set by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The establishment of such an area should be completed till 2010, with a gradual, and for agricultural products and services a slower, dynamics of liberalization than the one planned for industrial products. The package of economic and social measures adopted in Barcelona envisages also strong support for the development and modernization of the private sector, a strengthening of direct investments and technology transfers, as well as significant Trans-Mediterranean infrastructural programs in the field of telecommunication, information, media and transportation. Behind all this there should be a specific "Marshall Plan" for the Mediterranean - a huge financial support by the European Union. The Declaration is particularly insisting upon structural economic and social reforms in the Mediterranean countries, so as to create an environment as favorable as possible for an employment growth, an increase of the quality of life and a decrease in the motivation for emigration.

6. The Barcelona Conference was an important turn in Europe's treatment of the Mediterranean. Regardless of the degree of realism with regard to the feasibility of the highly placed aims in the near future, the new and strengthened Euro-Mediterranean cooperation was developed on a stronger power of those values and global influence that are the foundations of the European idea and the European integration. It is turning the Mediterranean countries that are not members of the European Union closer to Europe that is attracting them but is also asking them to have more perfect standards of behavior in exchange of a lasting and abundant support for their development and democratization. For all these reasons Barcelona can be considered as a highly positive symbol of getting closer of the two coasts of the Mediterranean, as well as a step that could lead to a more lasting stabilization of the Mediterranean in the best sense of the word - in the sense that excludes even the least element of any discrediting neo-colonial attitude.

7. The newly created states in the territory of former Yugoslavia were not present at the Barcelona Conference. Although they meet the geographic criteria, they were not invited because they did not have previous institutionalized arrangements with the European Union, which was the formal condition for participation. Besides, the European Union has a parallel action and negotiations with post-communist countries, directing toward them demands with regard to internal political and economic transformation, that are even more demanding than is the case with Mediterranean countries. In this context the Pact on Stability in Europe has a special place, as a specific form of European Union's preventive diplomacy with regard to the European East. However, it is difficult to escape the impression that within the present state of unorganized relations among the newly created Balkan countries the states of the European Union, as well as some on the South Mediterranean coast, are still not ready to see them as partners that would be capable of accepting all obligations within a new Euro-Mediterranean cooperation. It seems that developments in the territory of former Yugoslavia, like a "carcinogenic process" in the heart of Europe, in the view of the Euro-Mediterranean community of nations acquired the image of a most dangerous hotbed and as a development contrary not only to aims of the Euro-Mediterranean cooperation in the spirit of the new european approach towards the, but also as contrary to general trends on the old continent in the first half of the nineties. The absence of Yugoslavia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania from the Barcelona conference - countries with a undoubtedly geographic and cultural Mediterranean vocation - is partly illustrating also the fear of the Euro-Mediterranean community from the local anti-civilization appearances and it demonstrates its desire to make a distance from all that. In order to get rid of the "reputation" of the biggest European problem the Balkan countries from the former Yugoslav territory should, one would say first of all, give strong proofs of definitely accepting the peace compromise and of rejecting unrealistic nationalist "mega-projects" that could not be accomplished otherwise but by "ethnic cleansing", this neo-barbarian method that grabbed Europe at the end of the XX century. Keeping a united Bosnia and Herzegovina in its internationally recognized borders, and not its partition, however it may sound strangely, is the precondition and a test of the ability of ex-Yugoslav societies to qualify for standards of cooperation that Europe is, rightfully, asking from and offering to its Mediterranean neighborhood. A successful outcome of the peace process in Bosnia and the normalization of mutual relations are set as preconditions to the newly created Balkan states if they want to formally qualify for the type of cooperation that in Barcelona Europe did offer to the Mediterranean. The essential conditions will, however, be much more difficult. In order to have the Balkan region, especially the territory of the former Yugoslavia, join the perspectives opened by the Barcelona Conference, it is necessary to make radical democratic cuts into the tissue of societies of all the newly created South-Slavic states. They are linked to fundamental democratic changes within the mentioned states up to the level that corresponds with the criteria for membership in the Council of Europe, as well as for the transformation of their economies into market economies, which can be accomplished only through a rapid and authentic privatization. In other words, it is expected that the participants in Euro-Mediterranean cooperation develop from "quasi-market ‘democratures’ into market democracies".9 This asks for an overcoming of still existing and deeply rooted totalitarian inheritance in many spheres of political and public life in these countries. For many reasons the prospects for this are today not strong enough to give ground to over-optimistic expectations, although after the Dayton agreements and the Paris peace conference they have risen significantly. Pacifying Bosnia, mutual recognition of all states in the ex-Yugoslav territory, a turn with regard to national minorities and, which is particularly important, a just punishment of all war criminals convicted by the International Tribunal for War Criminals in ex-Yugoslavia so that the burden of collective guilt would not be placed upon entire peoples - these are some of the preconditions for strengthening prospects in this regard. The Balkan members of the Euro-Mediterranean community of states have good reason to take lessons from the concept of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation that was promoted by the Barcelona Conference. These are solutions that would accelerate the normalization of life in these countries, promote their inclusion into democratic trends in the post-Cold War Europe and make them equal members of the Euro-Mediterranean community.
CSS Survey, No.10, October 1996