Philip Morris Institute for Public
Policy ResearchPhilip Morris Institute for Public
Policy ResearchMorton I. Abramowitz, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations and then Acting President of the International Crisis Group, claimed that Western governments used diplomacy and humanitarian aid to avoid facing the difficult problems posed in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Bruce Bach, Special Assistant, U.S. Military Delegation to NATO, argued that Bosnia painfully reminded European states that they still need to rely on U.S. political will and "expensive toys". For its part, the United States discovered that Europe lacks the political will to forge a common policy. Furthermore, he said that Europe chooses to remain dependent on the U.S.: European nations continue to cut research and development budgets. The widening technology gap across the Atlantic means that European soldiers may one day be unable to operate effectively alongside American troops.
Richard Lewis, External Relations, Europe and the New Independent States, Common Foreign and Security Policy, European Commission, said the rich abundance of institutions dealing with security is counter-productive when they all try to address all security aspects rather than specialising. Lack of co-ordination is particularly bad at the micro level where non-governmental organisations try to outbid one another. He recommended drawing up plans detailing which organisation should be responsible under various circumstances.
Plamen Pantev, Director of the Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS) in Sofia, felt that European leaders should understand that a failure to promote a new vision of European integration is a failure of Europe in general. The Balkan war showed that outside intervention - including Russia - is necessary to help the Balkan region join the rest of Europe. But, he stressed that local citizens must also contribute to overall European security. He returned to the importance of humanitarian and diplomatic actions backed up by military support, and added that countries suffering due to sanctions imposed on a neighbour should be compensated. Russia must participate in European security, he stressed.
According to Simic, the Dayton Accord was a huge military success but was disappointing in terms of political and civilian issues. He noted that almost all structures considered pillars of Europe's security architecture failed in Bosnia. In the end, he said, the success of the Contact Group represents a success for 19th Century security relations.
Mladen Stanicic, Director of the Institute for International Relations (]MO) in Zagreb, focused on the importance of Serbia for south-east Europe’s stability. Events in former Yugoslavia have reflected a basic assumption that both Bosnia and Serbia cannot be kept whole and peaceful, he said. This was addressed at Dayton by giving Serbia a slice of Bosnia-Herzegovina and consolidating Milosevic's position. Milosevic is, Stanicic said, today's Tito in the eyes of the West. With this status quo, he cautioned, it is imperative that international forces including American troops remain in Bosnia.
Predicting that international forces would remain in the fragile country, Abramowitz said that no one believed that SFOR would really have accomplished its mission in one year. He mentioned positive signs of political evolution in Bosnia, but noted that none of the common institutions are working and the pro-Western president Plavsic is precariously positioned. But a renewed mandate is not just a question of "if", according to Abramowitz. The international community needs to decide why NATO forces are staying.
Abramowitz warned that the situation in Kosovo is deteriorating. If this province were to fall into open conflict, it could drag neighbouring FYROM down with it. The West cannot afford to repeat the mistakes made in Bosnia during the 1991-93 diplomacy period. Stanicic suggested expanding NATO forces to cover Kosovo.
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