The Prithvi threat from India has spurred Pakistani efforts to acquire ballistic missiles, the Hatf series, which it claims to have done without assistance; however, Chinese aid is suspected,(1) as well as French sounding rocket design.(2) A 1993 assessment of the Hatf missiles ascribed the following range capabilties with a 500 kg payload: Hatf-1 - 60 km; Hatf-2 - 280 km; Hatf-3 - 800 km. Both the Hatf-1 and -2 may now (1996) be deployed. The -3 is still considered to be in development. The assessment also provided range vs. payload curves, which show the following ranges for smaller payloads: Hatf-1 - 350 km/100 kg; Hatf-2 - 450 km/300 kg; Hatf-3 - 950 km/400 kg.(3)
Evidence has accumulated that China delivered unassembled M-11 missiles (300 km/500 kg) to Pakistan in 1993.(4) More than 30 M-11s may be in storage at Pakistan's Sargodha air force base west of Lahore.(5) On August 25, 1996, R. Jeffey Smith of The Washington Post reported that U.S. intelligence officials are concerned that a partially completed factory in the suburbs of Rawalpindi will be ready in a year or two to produce "precise duplicates" of the M-11. The National Intelligence Estimate, said to the basis for the report, also states that Pakistan may have developed nuclear warheads for the M-11, according to Smith.(6)
Pakistan's SUPARCO (Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission) developed a space launch vehicle to place a future Pakistani satellite into low earth orbit. In January 1989, Delhi domestic radio reported that a Pakistani newspaper, Dawn, had announced a successful launch of an "indigenous multistage rocket into deep space." The rocket was said to have reached an altitude of more than 640 km.(7) Two months later, Agence France Press reported that Pakistan had manufactured a rocket booster with a range of 640 km that was to be tested in Autumn of 1989; however, no such test is believed to have occurred.(8) According to a detailed report in a trade weekly publication, State Department officials said that the January 1989 test was the test of the Hatf-1 and Hatf-2, which were announced in February 1989. The report said that the Hatf-2 is the first stage of a planned multistage rocket to have a maximum range of 600 km.(9) In a possible reference to the same rockets, in May 1990, SUPARCO announced that the "test firing of two versions of scientific rockets ha[d] been successfully carried out."(10)
Although no Pakistani nuclear weapons tests have been detected, Pakistan, like India, is believed to have a capability to rapidly assemble and deliver a number of such weapons. If a nuclear warhead weighs around 500 kg, then the Hatf-1 and -2 and the M-11 do not have the range to reach beyond the Indian Desert to threaten New Delhi or other large population centers. The Hatf-2 would barely have the range from the Pakistan-Indian border, if the warhead weighed no more than about 300 kg. If its ascribed range/payload curve proves out, the Hatf-3 would have sufficient range from relatively more secure positions west of the border. For the time being, however, it appears that the credibility of Pakistan's imputed nuclear deterrent depends not on its limited-range missiles, but on the survivability of its strike aircraft.
1. Sino-Pakistani defense cooperation has been longstanding and in January 1990 a 10-year memorandum of understanding on bilateral defense cooperation was signed. It calls for cooperation in procurement, R&D, co-production, and technology transfer. ("Sino-Pakistan accord," Jane's Defence Weekly, 13 Jan 90, p. 54).
2. S. Chandrashekar, "An Assessment of Pakistan's Missile Capability," Missile Monitor, No. 3, Spring 93, p. 5-6.
3. Ibid.
4. Douglas Jehl, "China Breaking Missile Pledge," U.S. Aides Say," The New York Times International, 6 May 93.
5. "Proliferation Missile Story Old Hat," Intelligence Newsletter, No. 268, 13 July 95.
6. R. Jeffrey Smith, "China Linked to Pakistani Missile Plant," The Washington Post, 25 Aug 96, p. 1.
7. Delhi domestic service, 29 Jan 89, FBIS-NES 30 Jan 89, p. 77.
8. AFP, 21 Mar 89, FBIS-NES 22 Mar 89, p. 69; JANG, 21 Mar 89, JPRS-TAC 12 Apr 89, p. 21.
9. "A lot of bravado: Pakistan asks U.S. help in developing communications satellite," Satellite Week, Vol. 11, No. 44, 6 Nov 89, p. 2.
10. Islamabad domestic service, 21 May 90, FBIS-NES 23 May 90, p. 50.