Will the Electricity Go Out On New Years Eve 1999?
The Millenium BUG
On June12, 1998, the Senate Committee on the Year 2000 announced the
results of its survey of the nation's 10 largest utility corporations. The purpose of this survey was to assess the preparedness of the utilities to handle the millennial date change. Based on the survey, the committee concluded that remedial efforts were too slow and there was a "significant cause for concern." Critical phases of year 2000 (Y2K) compliance such as testing and remediation had not yet begun. The Y2K compliance of critical suppliers, vendors, and servicers was still unknown. Significant numbers of automated systems and uncertainty of a complete and accurate picture of the problem, "make optimistic assurances by the utilities of timely Y2K compliance little more than a hope." So, what has happened in the last ten months? Will the electricity go out on new years eve 1999? As many have said, what good is a Y2K compliant computer system if there's no electricity to keep them running?At this moment electric utility companies are trying to identify, assess, test, and repair, as well as, make contingency plans for their power systems, transmission systems, distribution systems, business systems, communications systems, and customer service systems. Seems like a lot doesn't it? It is! According to
The President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion web site (on April 21/1999):"Industry surveys reveal that it is highly unlikely that there will be national disruptions in electric power service on January 1, 2000. More than two-thirds of critical systems within the industry are now Y2K ready before the industry-wide target date of June 30, 1999, and with continued progress and properly coordinated contingency planning the Nation's electric power supply and delivery systems will be able to operate reliably into the Year 2000."
However, while this sounds great, even The President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion admits, "As with any sector, local companies that have not made the Y2K problem a top priority will most likely encounter difficulties in making the Year 2000 transition." Even regional electric utilities like Central and South West Corporation (CSW) have disclaimers like, "While we cannot guarantee there will be no service interruptions, we are making every reasonable effort to provide a smooth transition into the year 2000 and beyond."
It seems that the first thing they are doing is changing from the Y2K compliance standard to a Y2K readiness standard. "To coordinate the industry's efforts to assure a smooth transition to the Year 2000, the Department of Energy has turned to the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC)" advises The President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. (NERC was formed after a massive blackout in the Northeast in 1965 to help prevent such disasters from happening again). On August 17, 1998 NERC submitted a report to the U.S. Department of Energy which stated
:"Y2K Ready means a system or component has been determined to be suitable for continued use into the Year 2000. Note that this is not necessarily the same as Y2K Compliant, which implies fully correct date manipulations. Consistent with practices across other industries, the NERC assessment process has adopted the term Y2K Ready and does not use the term Y2K Compliant."
This shows that complete compliance is too high a standard. The complexity of the problem with millions of individual computer chips within critical equipment (embedded systems) and millions of lines of computer code makes this a large scale project of such magnitude that the likely effects of the date roll over on December 31, 1999 a very big unknown. The goal has been changed to use a combination of occasional manual workarounds, acceptance of occasional erroneous data outputs, and heavy reliance on contingency plans.
The gloom and doom people are sure that that the nation's power grid will go into gridlock. Even if the electric utilities can find and fix their problems before the year 2000, the utility will still go down because of unforeseen and unexpected problems. These problems will not be fixed in a timely manner because of the utility's dependence on other sectors of the economy. Critical parts needed for an upgrade are ordered but can not be delivered and put in place until months after the power has gone out. Fuel may not be available because the railroads are not running (for coal burning power plants). If a power company does not go down on January 1st, then it will go down later, when the fuel runs out. Etc., etc., etc.
What the gloom and doom naysayers forget is that business managers spend most of their time watching the bottom line and planning for the future. They call one another and ask were they are on Y2K compliance. When their customers start asking if they are ready, they begin to find out and start making preparations. This is happening all over the country. Businesses are putting time, money and people into getting ready (CSW has 90 people involved in their Y2K project). People are thinking about it and doing something. "Even if things go wrong and the bug bit local service, power companies vow to handle outages swiftly," says engineer Mike Hyghland of the American Public Power Association (APPA). While the lights may go out in some areas, we can overcome the problems by continuing to pull together and work on the problem. The possibilities of the grid going down decrease as we get closer and closer to the year 2000.
The Millenium BUG
