The current events unfolding in the Balkans should be of no surprise to those who are familiar with the region and the relentless struggle between ethnicity and despotic leaders. For Americans and their allies it is difficult to muster the courage to try and explain to their domestic constituents (again) the problems facing this, small, poor, desolate part of Europe. Remember, it was only a few years ago when NATO forces had to bomb Slobodan Milosevic into submission over Bosnia. Once again the issue of stability in the Balkans and the international security structure has come to the forefront of global news.

The problems of the break up of Yugoslavia and the current crisis in Kosovo boil down to history. Serbian history from the Ottoman Empire, the prospects of a Greater Albania, chronic Albanian poverty coupled with Serb economic superiority have all placed a part in the current debates about the future of Kosovo. But the future of this region will not rely on its history. The creation of an international political structure similar to the one in place in Bosnia-Herzegovnia will dominate the region in the future whether the Serbs like it or not. Because Milosevic has not settled for peace, he will again see a portion of his country siphoned off to another "minority/majority" group under the auspices of the Western powers he truly hates. Yugoslavia's territory has become smaller and smaller under the watch of a Serbian nationalist - a particularly hard pill to swallow given a peace agreement was within reach in Rambouillet, France. Under the agreement, Yugoslavia would still have authority over Kosovo, but with the current escalation of ethnic cleansing the Rambouillet Accords are no longer relevant. How can Milosevic be given authority over Kosovo following current events?

NATO still stands behind the peace accords, but this is foolish. About as foolish as the denial of the need for ground troops as a peace-building force. NATO has been reluctant to implement a coherent strategy in the region, which does not vive confidence to Kosovars who will be relying on a long-term military, political and economic commitment. The current international military offensive will take longer than expected because of the reluctance of the allies to use a strong and sweeping strike. Domestic political pressure in the United States as well as the miscalculation of the Serbian resistance will unfortunately prolong this crisis. If NATO expects Milosevic to even contemplate bowing to pressure, contingency plans for NATO ground forces must be made in the coming weeks.

It was clear to many military officials that air power alone would not provide the wherewithal to accomplish NATO's objectives. Instead of admitting this, US President Bill Clinton has told the public that ground troops would not be needed. This was just the first of many blunders by NATO members during the year they were supposed to be celebrating their 50th anniversary. They forgot to invite Milosevic to the party - literally. Did the International community really think that he was going to sign a peace agreement that he did not even have a part in negotiating? In a year that the U.S. and Europe would be patting themselves on the back, they are actually shooting themselves in the foot. The longer the crisis goes on, the more NATO will have to entrench itself in a policy that makes not sense. The embarrassment has gone on too long; an intelligent policy backed by a strong military campaign is needed to end this quagmire.

NATO would not have to look far for a successful example. The similarities with Bosnia are wide-ranging, and even though there have been set backs in Bosnia, the plan is on schedule militarily, politically and economically. The need for an international group to exercise authority over portions of a sovereign nation in an effort to build democratic and liberal economic institutions is becoming a frequent occurrence in the Balkans. Keeping this in mind, the peoples of Kosovo will become the direct beneficiaries of an "aid and trade" policy with the European Union and the United States. With the leaders behind this current slaughter and injustice pushed back into their sovereign box with crippling economic sanctions, Kosovo may have a chance to become prosperous, something that has evaded them under Serbian rule. But this is not a project that is accomplished with short-lived bombing campaigns or finger pointing propaganda. The turnaround from crisis to peace and prosperity will take generations. And the question Kosovars should be asking is whether NATO is willing to make that kind commitment.

 

Al R Schleicher is a Masters student at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs. Previously he worked for the Committee on Foreign Relations at the journal Foreign Affairs.