The Tennessee Oilers have found themselves in a unique situation. Practicing in Nashville, playing in Memphis, their home games may as well be road games. In addition to the travel, the Memphis fans have shown little support to their temporay team. In that regard, things haven't changed for the Oilers; in the last several years, the Houston fans abandoned the team as the team abandoned the city. What kind of impact can fan support -- or lack thereof -- have on a game?
To answer that question, I thought I'd take a look at the point differentials of each team's home and away games from last year (1996). To determine point differential at home, I started with points scored at home. I then subtracted points allowed at home, and divided by number of home games. (In the NFL, that number is always 8, unless a strike or something happens.) The process is then repeated for road games. Home field advantage is found by subtracting point differential on the road from point differential at home. Were the Oiler's fans really that bad?
Team HomeDiff. Road Diff. Home Adv. Pittsburgh 15.0 -4.1 19.1 St. Louis 1.0 -14.3 15.3 Carolina 16.5 2.1 14.4 Denver 14.4 0.1 14.3 Chicago 5.0 -7.8 12.8 Baltimore 1.9 -10.6 12.5 Dallas 8.3 -3.8 12.0 Buffalo 9.3 -2.6 11.9 Cincinnati 6.1 -5.8 11.9 Jacksonville 4.6 -5.9 10.5 Washington 8.1 -1.6 9.8 Minnesota 3.6 -5.8 9.4 Indianapolis 3.3 -5.4 8.6 Philadelphia 5.4 -2.6 8.0 Green Bay 18.9 11.9 7.0 San Diego -0.6 -7.6 7.0 San Francisco 12.3 5.4 6.9 Seattle -0.3 -7.1 6.9 Tampa Bay -1.6 -7.4 5.8 Arizona -3.4 -8.8 5.4 Kansas City 2.4 -2.8 5.1 Oakland 5.3 0.6 4.6 New York Giants -1.4 -5.5 4.1 Atlanta -7.5 -11.5 4.0 New England 7.9 5.3 2.6 Detroit -2.9 -5.4 2.5 New York Jets -9.8 -12.1 2.4 Miami 0.8 1.0 -0.3 New Orleans -8.1 -5.6 -2.5 Houston -2.3 5.5 -7.8 AVERAGE 3.7 -3.7 7.5
I'll say the fans can have a huge impact! The Oiler's fans actually cost the team more than a touchdown per game. Little wonder the Oilers finished '96 with a 2-6 home record. A closer look reveals that the Oilers lost four home games by seven points or less; if it weren't for the lack of fan support, the Oilers would have finished 12-4, division champions and a favorite to go to the Super Bowl.
Only two other teams were hurt by playing at home: the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints. The Saints, of course, have driven their fans away with years of horrid football. As for the Dolphins, I suspect that fan expectations were unreasonably high when Jimmy Johnson was hired as coach, and thus they became unreasonably disappointed when the Dolphins didn't instantly become the best team in the league.
The top six teams in the least are a study of opposites. Pittsburgh, Chicago, and especially Denver have always been regarded as tough places to play. On the other hand, St. Louis, Carolina, and Baltimore each have new teams, and have helped their team to a huge home-field advantage.
Does a good home crowd help a team make the playoffs? Not surprisingly, the answer is yes. Playoff teams had an average home-field advantage of 10.4 points per game. The rest of the league had an average home-field advantage of 5.5 points per game.
How do domed stadiums affect a crowd? Surprisingly, dome-teams had a smaller advantage than outsiders. The eight dome-teams had an average advantage of 4.6 points per game, while outside teams gained 8.5 points per game from their fans. Even if we throw out the unappreciated Oilers, the remaining domers advantage is a subpar 6.3 points per game.
I suspect that the Oilers' current troubles will continue, at least until they finally move to Nashville. But until they get consistent, strong fan support, I believe they'll continue to struggle.
One disclaimer: these numbers were compiled over the course of one season. I believe that is too small a sample to accurately reflect fan bases; maybe one of these days I'll get around to doing just that.