Northern Division Organization Reports
2005 Prospect Report
2005 Pennant Chase Preview – HA!
Why would you even bother to read this part? I mean, last year this writer
predicted 3 teams would compete in the north and that the rest would be also-
rans. The final finishes for those three: 2nd, 5th, and 7th. The “also-rans”
finished a combined 58 games over .500. Baltimore neglected my advice to fire
the field manager and won 100 games and the division. I practically guaranteed
that Newark would decline – they improved by seven games and challenged for a
playoff spot. I predicted that the Hobgoblins would finally finish out of last
place, dooming them to yet another year of cellar dwelling. So don’t even
bother to read the rest of this part. You must have something better to do.
Work on your knuckleball, scout the local little league for deep sleepers, darn
your stirrup socks, just don’t read the next two paragraphs, they’ve got the
same predictive value as exit polls.
On with the futility: The news keeps getting better in Baltimore as I’m picking
them to go first to worst. They’ll spend too many games without a major league
battery and the machine just won’t go without one, Hon. I was right about the
Rippers last year as I predicted they wouldn’t be the first expansion team to
top .500; they only matched it. They again have a great outfield and bullpen
but aren’t at all impressive anywhere else. The newly minted Robber Barons have
a nice rotation, bullpen and starting lineup (except for catcher – this seems
to be a league theme). If everyone stays healthy they could compete for a
playoff spot. When is the last time an entire team stayed healthy? There’s
absolutely no depth here and Duchess County appears primed for a mid-season
talent exodus as new GM Mike Gusmano sells off a crucial part or two in the
prequel to rebuilding. Hope for very competitive races Mike-seller’s market and
all that economics mumbo-jumbo. The Hobgoblins have plenty of firepower
offensively, but the pitching probably isn’t championship caliber just yet,
but, unlike the Orioles, help is on the way. (Actually Bedard and Cabrera have
me sort of excited these days.) Treating the Florida Panthers as a Northern
Division team just for fun, I predict a median 5th place finish. They picked up
some much needed pitching in the supplemental draft, and should compete in the
historically much weaker South.
Moline figures once again to contend, and still looks like the best bet in the
division to build a dynasty as they easily have the best minor league system
going. But like last year they are missing a modern bullpen ( #6 thru #9
starters don’t count since the 70s) and it will probably once again prevent
them from achieving a playoff birth, especially since there are no studs on the
Green offense (for now). The Five Spot look ready to repeat as bridesmaids with
truly spotty pitching coming from the bottom of the rotation, and, at the end
of the day, or night, there’s no closer to protect the leads that Abreu,
Beltran, Rolen, et. al. provide. Chicago should yo-yo back towards the top of
the division on the strength of their pitching staff, led by my pre-season
Damon Rutherford pick – Josh Beckett. Harrisburg was so loaded with talent last
year that they proved too powerful for the Rebuck curse, as they actually made
the playoffs even after I predicted they would do exactly that. The curse
surely did damage however, as Andy Pettitte, Kerry Wood, Wade Miller, Billy
Wagner, Mike Piazza, Marcus Giles, and Trot Nixon all missed significant to
seriously significant time due to injury. Since I’m bound to be wrong anyway I
might as well go out on a thin limb and pick Giles and Piazza to lead the
rebounders and win a co-MVP award, in Piazza’s case a last hurrah for an inner
circle HOFer.
Clearly the best minor league system here belongs to Moline, and just as
clearly staked out is #2 Harrisburg. After that it really depends on what you
like, though if 05 draft picks were included London would slip out the bottom
of the pack. Note that in the individual player ratings that follow 2005 draft
picks are not included; and that grade inflation has occurred since last year.
Also please note that all predictions are made with an ever more committed
belief in the view best expressed by that rhetorical luminary Joaquin Andujar,
who said that life and baseball could be summed up in one word: youneverknow.
Harrisburg Heroes
First the bad news: Last year’s two blue-chippers crashed hard. Jeff Mathis
figuratively as his average dropped 96 points in the jump to AA. Cole Hamels
figuratively as he suffered somewhat mysterious arm ailments before literally
crashing and breaking his non-throwing hand in a bar fight. The Mathis slide is
the more alarming from the Heroes point-of-view as Piazza and Barrett are both
gone after 2006 and their other good catching prospect from 04, Rob Bowen, lost
99 points off his average, dropping below the Mendoza line in a REPEAT of AA.
Still the news is mostly good in the Capital city as GM Dave Hess has collected
three new grade As while watching last year’s B++ guy put up drool-worthy
numbers between AAA and the majors. Watch for David Wright to start showing up
in big league all-star games any day now.
The 05 draft brought 1st rounder Jason Kubel, who will be a coup if he
recovers fully from a very serious knee operation, which won’t happen until 06
at the very earliest.
Prince Fielder 1B A- The reportedly nimble 280-pounder handled the
jump from low A to AA as well as personal
problems with big daddy in 04. (Apparently pops
has gambled away the millions earned in Japan
and Detroit.) He’s certainly got a big future.
sorry
Eric Duncan 3B A- A possible move to the right on the defensive
spectrum would drop him a half grade, but with
David Wright manning the hot-corner in
Harrisburg that’s not really a problem.
Chad Billingsley RHP A- Struck out 158 in 134 IP between high A and AA
as a teenager!
Joaquin Arias SS B Speed/defense guy young enough to develop
offensive skills.
Jeff Mathis C B
Cole Hamels RHP B
Blake Hawksworth P B Top of the rotation potential but shoulder
circulation problems might have been caused
by bad mechanics. Could always go back to
South Fork.
Andy LaRoche 3B B Dave’s kid, Adam’s bro, moved from short but
should be a slick fielder at third.
Fernando Cabrera RP B- Should be bringing his big time heat in the
majors this year.
Jerry Gil SS B- Good glove with pop but NO plate discipline.
Perhaps 33K/0BB in 86 big league ABs in 04
embarrassed him into patience.
Taylor Buchholz RHP C++ Shoulder trouble made 04 ugly but he’s still
got good stuff.
Delwynn Young 2B C++ middle infielder led FSL in extra base hits.
Bronson Sardinha ? C+ failed as SS and OF, was going to try 3B in AFL
but broke finger.
Brad Cresse C D he’s just here cause he’s got a relative high
in the organization.
Chicago Cockroaches
In 04 the young middle infield combo of Alex Cintron and Angel Berroa regressed
significantly, Cintron to the point of getting traded for Alex Sanchez (ee-uch)
at seasons end. At least it opens up a spot for BJ Upton in 05. GM Mike Issacs
needs him performing in the majors NOW. (Relax Mike: the D-Rays inability to
score runs and Alex Gonzalez’s inability to hit will Drive Lou Lou Lou to put
on a tantrum until the Rays bring him up in late April) 2004 first round pick
David DeJesus jumped right to the big club and teams with the still youthful
Vernon Wells and Kevin Mench to provide an outfield that will make it tough for
Grady Sizemore to break in, at least as long as Mench plays half his games in a
power hitters park. That leaves catcher as the only weak spot in the Roach
offence, and Chris Snyder has a chance to step in, though it might be another
year before he’s really ready. None of the nice handful of starting pitching
prospects is close to being big-league ready, which is just fine as the big
league pitching rotation is also young, deep, and talented.
05 first rounder Jessie Crain should step into an already strong bullpen to
make it the division’s best.
Adam Miller RHP A- will debut in AA as 20 year old.
Grady Sizemore OF B+
Matt Albers RHP B
Anthony Lerew RHP B- lively fastball gets to upper 90s
Chris Snyder C B-
J. Saltamacchia C C++ long way to go, lots of time
Choo Freeman OF C+ could play home games in Coors one day
Ronny Cedeno SS C+ defensive wiz being pushed despite lagging bat
Cha Baek RHP C+
Ryan Church OF C 346/430/622 in almost 400 PA in Edmonton in 04
Newark Five Spot
The cream of Newark’s system is on the verge of the majors and could play
important roles in the big club’s fortunes this year. Ryan Howard led the
minors in HRs with 46 last year, and was second in RBIs. Barring a trade he
could see a trial at a corner OF spot in AAA this year. In Newark he’s blocked
by the Sweeny/Pickering combo, not Thome but not Jay Gibbons either. If he can
make a D- as an outfielder he’d probably outhit Stairs/Conine/DuBoise as the
Five Spot LFer. Just behind Howard in prospect status is 2B Chris Burke, who is
a ROY candidate in Houston. In Newark he could be battling Brian Roberts for
his job by May, and should at minimum give the club it’s only infield depth.
The Five Spot lack of any good closer candidates means rookie Chin-Hui Tsao
could be their man – even though he figures to pitch half his home games in
Coors – yikes. Newark had no 1st round pick in the 05 draft but second rounder
Jason DuBoise could battle for the left field job this year.
Ryan Howard 1B A-
Chris Burke 2B B+
Chin-Hui Tsao RHP B+
Michael Aviles SS B- Hit .500 with 22 HR with a metal bat in 03
(Concordia College). Was best hitter on
Wilmington team in 04.
Josh Banks RHP B- Dominant in high A but AA hitters took him deep 15
times in just 91 IP.
Kameron Loe RHP B- soft tosser just keeps getting people out.
Kelly Johnson OF C+ moved from SS but could still hit enough to be
a good corner OFer in Newark
Brad Baker RHP C+ minor league closer gets comparisons to Foulke and
Hoffman with his devastating changeup.
Dan Ortmeier OF C+
Ryan Anderson LHP C+ Poster boy for Baseball Prospectus’s TINSTAAPP
(there is no such thing as a pitching prospect)
Moline Greens
Topping the Greens prospect list last year was Guillermo Quiroz, who had an
injury mar a second straight season. Top pitching prospect Brandon Claussen was
treated very harshly by major league hitters, and is no longer young. Said to
be pushing Claussen was Mike Jones, who’s torn labrum shelves him for 05 and
makes another argument for TINSTAAPP. 2003s blue chip pitching prospects were
Colby Lewis and Jessie Foppert, for more arguments you’ll have to pay another
five pounds. Moline GM Rolf Samuels remains determined, however, to load up on
draft picks and once again has the strongest minor league system in the
division, and most likely, the league.
The new golden child is Andy Marte, the best power prospect in baseball, and
the BB Prospectus’s top overall prospect. The third baseman continues to show
an ability to adapt well to the challenges of an aggressive promotion schedule,
improving in every phase of the game as he moves up. He slugged 525 in AA at
age 20 last year. The Prospectus folks had a very tough time picking Marte over
Golden child number two - Delmon Young. He tore up the Sally league last year
as an 18 year old and will be the youngest player in the bigs sometime this
year. Daric Barton is another great hitter who gives Moline a third entry in
the Prospectus’s overall top ten. Will his owners have patience for his slower
development as a catcher? Some scouts prefer ahead of all those guys true five
tool stud Jeff Francoeur. He comes with the typical tools-guy batting eye
concerns but his other baseball skills are for real, for real! The 05 draft
brought FOUR new first round picks to Moline, including their third solid A
prospect in 3B Ian Stewart. Read this list and weep.
Andy Marte 3B A
Delmon Young OF A
Daric Barton C A-
Jeff Francour OF B++
Guillermo Quiroz C B+
Franklin Gutierrez OF B+ missed 2nd half with elbow trouble in 04.
Brad Snyder OF B+ lingering eye infection was a problem in 04.
J.D. Closser C B- How can this guy be your 3rd best catching
prospect? He could slug .500 in the majors this
year!
J.J. Hardy SS B- Blocked by Furcal and Jose Reyes – surely Rolf
could use more draft picks – make him an offer.
David Aardsma RHP B- will team with Ryan Wagner, Byung-Hyun Kim, and
David Riske in the pen.
Ching-Lung Hu SS B- should stick at short and is projectable at the
plate.
Willy Aybar inf B-
Adrian Gonzalez 1B B- blocked in Texas
Chris Snelling OF C++ wrist, hand, thumb, ankle, knee…
Ryan Harvey OF C+ 4 HR in three games led short season team to
title.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers went into the offseason looking like a team ready to rebuild,
having dropped below .500 for the first time in five years, going 74-88 with an
old team. But GM Ron Cox saw the opportunity to retool instead, picking up Carl
Pavano, Glendon Rusch, and Antonio Alfonseca with 3 of his first four picks in
the supplemental draft. It certainly could pay off in 05 as there’s still
plenty of offence to go with the reloaded staff, fronted by Damon Rutherford
candidate Roy Oswalt. The minor leagues look much bleaker for it, however. 04’s
top prospects Edwin Jackson and Josh Barfield both regressed, leaving the
Panthers without any A prospects. There remain, however, a good number of
decent prospects that could blossom into something special.
Josh Barfield 2B B+ Scouts love him but his numbers were
unimpressive in AA last year.
Merkin Valdez RHP B+ elbow trouble delayed his 04 start. Lack of a
third pitch may make him a closer in time.
Edwin Jackson RHP B still could rebound from having been rushed
through the system. Hope is his career
highlight won’t always be beating Randy Johnson
on his 20th birthday.
Manny Parra LHP B shoulder trouble limited his 04 season
Melky Cabrera OF B-
Shane Costa OF B-
Roberto Valido SS C++ mixed reviews so far for the teenager
Chris Young CF C++ power, speed, and …, wait for it… patience!
Ryan Raburn 2B/3B C+ 301/390/533 in Erie in 04
Blaine Boyer RHP C+ 95 fastball, hammer curve, closer potential
Fausto Carmona RHP C+ listed at 6’4”/170, windy parks could give him
trouble.
Hagerstown Hobgoblins
One of the more interesting story lines in baseball this year will play out in
Colorado as the best pitcher ever to come out of Colorado Springs will try his
luck in Coors field. The guess here is that what equates to success for the
Rockies won’t be success in Hagerstown, and that Jeff Francis won’t lead the
Gobs to the upper division promised land in 05. He will combine with Dontrelle
Willis and Odalis Perez (who know where to pitch!) to provide a young
rotational core that should give the Hagerstown faithful hope for the future,
especially with the likes of Kyle Davies, John Danks, and Ian Snell on the way.
The offence already includes MVP candidates in 3rd year men Mark Teixeira and
Hideki Matsui, 4th year pronk Travis Hafner, and veteran Miguel Tejada; so if
and when the pitching develops there could be much joy in Hagerstown.
The 05 supplemental draft brought immediate help in 2B Clint Barmes and RP
extraordinaire Mike Gonzales, but no new prospects until the 3rd round. GM Doug
Krippendorf’s addiction to the waiver wire means guys like Dave Burba make the
roster while C+ prospects don’t.
Jeff Francis SP A-
Eric Aybar SS A- outstanding defense with a live bat, not enough
patience.
Kyle Davies SP B+ 173/57 K/BB ratio in 142 1/3 IP at all three
minor league levels as 20 year old.
Organizations matter.
John Danks SP B got the stuff but a long ways to go
Brendan Harris inf. B he’s as good as Vinnie Castilla
Ian Snell SP B- great athlete, gave up lots of homers
Josh Wilson SS C+ good glove man was sub .200 in AFL. He could
grow into the new Mario Mendoza
Jason Repko OF C+ OK, he actually came via the waiver wire.
Duchess County Robber Barons
The ownership transfer resulted in the team taking the undisputed league lead
in words in official moniker. The Great Hyphen Controversy is now history. New
GM Mike Guzmano inherits a mostly veteran team whose only weakness is at
catcher and its near complete lack of depth. The top prospects from 04 all hit
the majors last year, with Khalil Greene legitimately vying for ROY honors,
Alex Rios showing he’s not got the power to be a valuable RF, and Casey
Kotchman missing significant time for the third year in a row due to injury,
keeping him on the prospect list for 05. There remains a good deal of talent in
the minors and should Guzmano so decide it certainly could be dealt for the
spare parts needed to keep the team in contention.
For the 2005 supplemental draft the team was league owned, and the league did
better by the club than other leagues in similar situations have done to other
teams in that situation. The first round brought Brian Dopriak, whose 39 homers
in 04 is 16 more than Kotchman has hit in his pro career. The next several
picks brought solid B prospects, Jason Vargas, and a decent sixth round finish
with B- John Bowker, who slugged 606 in his first year with wooden bats.
Casey Kotchman 1B A- The Robber Barons need him to step into a full
-time role immediately and stay healthy,
neither of which is likely. But he sure can hit
line drives.
Nate Schierholtz ? B He can hit but his OF defense reminded some
scouts of a slow Lonnie “Skates” Smith, and
he’d already been moved from 3B.
Kelly Shoppach C C++ He’s very close to being big league ready and
the Barons need him, but he’s snowed-in in
Boston.
Robinson Cano 2B C++ Reported to be absolutely horrible defensively,
though the stats folks say he’s adequate. Worse
is he’s an aggressive contact hitter.
Phil Dumatrait LHP C+ former 1st rounder missed 04 after TJ surgery
Vince Perkins RHP C+ he was already old for his level and was slowed
by injuries in 04, he did hit the mid-90s in
the AFL and could be a sleeper.
Brad Nelson LF C+ marginally successful in move from 1B, but his
offense isn’t developing
William Bergolla 2B C+ scouts dig his speed
Ben Johnson RF C+ didn’t this guy fail a drug test?
Val Pascucci OF C+ spending 05 in Japan
London Rippers
The Rippers achieved .500 ball in 04 led by a couple of idiots in Johnny Damon
and Manny Ramirez, and a pitching staff that compiled a 4.10 ERA. Rejuvenated
staff ace Jeff Weaver won 15 games, Barry Zito provided solid #2 work, and the
pen was excellent. But how the rest of the rotation didn’t push that ERA closer
to 5.00 is baffling. Perhaps there’s some conversion rate that I’m unaware of.
There’s certainly no hope for the staff from the farm system. There isn’t a
pitching prospect in the organization, unless you still insist on counting Sean
Burnett, whose elbow was scragged beyond even the typical after 71 innings in
Pittsburgh.
Of course Rippers GM Bill Young has always shown a certain disdain for
prospects anyway, regularly trading away draft picks for more proven talent,
and it’s hard to argue with the expansion league champs of 2001, 2002, 2003,
and 2004. The 05 draft brought Neil Walker, catcher #9 with the 1st pick in
round two, and only one other pick in the first five rounds.
Joel Guzman SS A 67 extra-base hits between A + AA last year as
a teenager. Scouts think he’s too tall to be a
shortstop – perhaps they’ll rename the position
after he wins anMVP there. Comparisons to A-Rod
looking less silly.
Don Murphy 2B B nifty glove
Fred Lewis CF B 424 OBPct in high A tempered by his age – 23.
Garrett Atkins 3B B- ROY candidate in any league he’s in.
Sergio Santos B- he doesn’t figure to be a SS much longer, he
hits more like a corner OF anyway.
Jake Blalock OF C+ listed with London’s infielders, unfortunately
for Bill he’s not Hank the 3B, but he did hit
40 2Bs in the Sally League
Koyie Hill C C+ at least he’s better than Brandon Inge… maybe
Dane Sardinha C C+ catch and throw guy, i.e. he can’t hit.
Baltimore Hons
The Hons mega-prospect from 04, Bobby Crosby, had a solid rookie season and was
sent packing at season’s end to pick up the 05 top gun, Scott Kazmir, and Alex
Gonzalez, 3B? Someone had to play there since All-Star Scott Rolen and his
salary were sent to Jersey for Clint Nageotte and Chase Utley; welcome to
Moneyball SJL style. Continuing in his yearly quest to fill out a pitching
rotation, Hon GM Al Melchior then used his first pick in the supplemental draft
to pick up Noah Lowry, and it was Mission Accomplished, at least until the
insur… injuries begin. Reverse curse believers are now thinking Harden, Kazmir,
Lowry, John Thomson, and Chris Capuano have a decent chance to stay healthy all
year AND realize their full potential, and Gabe Gross could hit 30 homers and
lead Balmer back to the playoffs. Stranger things have happened, just ask
Joaquin Andujar about the 6th and 7th games of the 85 World Series. After
getting Lowry the Hons continued to pick up pitching in this year’s
supplemental draft in an effort to avoid the rotation quest in the future.
Scott Kazmir LHP A-
Brian Anderson OF B struggled in 04 with wrist problems, he’s a
scout favorite
Scott Olsen LHP B pro ERAs: 2.81 and 2.97 as youngster in A levels
Corey Hart OF B- power, speed, and cannon
Francisco Cruceta P C+ put up 5.28 ERA in half year at AA, promoted to
AAA and got to 3.25, new splitter reported to
be the difference.
Chris Lubanski OF C+ another tall speedy scout favorite
Miguel Perez C C+ catch and throw guys do log innings