The stray bullet TL
                                                                                                parts 16 to  20


Part 16

Since the Japanese occupation of Manchuria in 1931 Japan and China are in a de facto state of war with nearly constant clashes between the Japanese army of Manchuria and Chinese forces. In the meantime Tokyo is in the midst of a clash that isn't demonstrating itself through violence, at least often enough, as politicians and militarists are battling for power. The militarists aren't a solid block by far as well as the continuing alliance with Britain has kept more moderate elements strong especially among the navy. Still the growing power of the Chinese nationalists gives the militarists a reasonable pretext to claim that something has to be done over it. After creating a sufficiently large border incident in December 1937 Japan finds itself at war with China by the start of March 1938.

The second Sino Japanese war quickly proves a much different affair from the first one 4 decades earlier. And perhaps from the Japanese point of view is already coming too late. The KMT is in more or less firm control of China at the time the war starts. The communists that might had become an opponent were crushed between the KMT and nearly open Russian intervention in the early 1930s. Surviving warlords are either getting more integrated into the KMT structure by the day or ceasing to be in the list of surviving ones. And while the bulk of the Chinese armies is poorly trained and equipped the KMTs "new army" built by German and Russian military advisors is already perhaps as much as 60 divisions worth [1] and relatively well trained and armed.

Thus the war turns into a rather frustrating experience for the Japanese. The Japanese army can drive back  the Chinese and inflict far heavier casualties on them than it suffers but fails to destroy them. The Moscow finds the time expedient to bloody the Japanese and the US is hardly in favour of the war against China. It is relatively easy for the KMT to raise loans in the US market. Then the loans find their way to Moscow and Russian arms, supplies and "volunteers" find their way to the KMT in turn. By the start of August China has lost ground, Shanghai has fallen to Japanese amphibious assault and the forces of the "new army" involved in the fighting have taken rather steep casualties. Things don't look so rosy for the Japanese though. Japanese casualties keep mounting and no matter the casualties the "new army" got out of Shanghai as a fighting force. [2] Worse yet with supplies flowing from Russia by August the Chinese are in fact stronger than they were when the fighting started.

The Japanese quite correctly identify the Russian supplies as one of the reasons of their troubles. The solution taken by the army in Manchuria in reaction isn't exactly the best as Japanese forces raid inside Russian territory and things quickly escalate to the horror of Tokyo. The Russian forces in the far east don't have much trouble crushing the Japanese probes. Maklakov and Mikhail back in Moscow don't find this sufficient. Russia has been humiliated by the Japanese in 1904, Japan had the bad taste to develop close ties with Ukraine post 1931, and now to attack into Russian territory. Whether Tokyo ordered or not the incursions is largely beyond the point. Russia is relatively secure in the west as Germany isn't considered particularly willing to attack into Russia neither has a land border with it any more. Ukraine itself isn't deemed enough of a threat and anyway the civil war is going to restart sooner or later.

Till winter 1938 the Japanese are given a rather unwelcome lesson of a superiority of an mechanized force built with European fighting in mind over a light infantry force however motivated the later is. The Japanese hold on into Manchuria despite casualties, largely on account of the Russians still building up their forces in the far east while trying to build up a heavy force to meet the Russians and get Ukraine and possibly Poland in the war against Russia.

Japan is only partially successful in her efforts. Britain and France are willing to sell tanks, as long as Japan can pay for them which Japan is able of doing on a relatively limited scale and which doesn't change doctrinal deficiencies on the Japanese side. In the air Japanese planes may be manoeuvrable but compared to Russian fighters are inferior in about everything else. [3] Poland isn't particularly willing to get involved in the war. Ukraine is more willing to do so as the Russian economy has gone into a war mobilization and the threat of the Russians turning uppon it after the war with Japan is over is becoming evident. Still the republicans can't be expected to be ready for war before June. Come April the Russians go to the offensive this time in force. Since the war started Russia has been moving an average of 10 divisions a month. General Koniev once communist turned fascist in the 1920s like many others has been the rising star among Russian armies both during the war with Germany and  afterwards in the fight against the republicans and the Poles. Now in command of Russia's far eastern armies he storms  into Manchuria overwhelming the Japanese defences. By the end of May the Japanese Kwantung army is a thing of the past and the Russian army on the Yalu. With the bulk of the Japanese army turned to fight the Russians and then cut off unleash able to draw supplies by sea things in China aren't much better. Japan is only holding a bridgehead around Shanghai and even that isn't liable to survive for long.

The Japanese defeats are putting Ukraine in a rather unkward position. Russia's war production is large enough for the forces on the Ukrainian border to actually increase by the month while Ukraine has been forced to mobilize in response to the Russian mobilization. If the fascists are to attack anyway then the republicans best option is to go to war while the fight with Japan is still ongoing. Finally Ukraine opts for war. and is unable to deliver before mid June between the weather and war preparations.

By mid June it is too late for the Japanese position in mainland Asia though. The Japanese have massed about every unit they could on the Yalu from surviving forces from their late armies in China and Manchuria to units still training in Japan. Nevertheless Koniev's army has more than twice as many divisions and an overwhelming superiority in tanks and artillery. The Russians cross the Yalu early in June beat back Japanese counterattacks and race south. By early July the only Japanese soldiers still in Korea are prisoners of war and a Korean republic has been hastily declared in Seoul just a couple of days before the Russians entering the city.

The war in east Asia is effectively over. The Japanese army has been largely destroyed and with it the bulk of the militarists. Even with war in the west the prospects of a Japanese counterattack in continental Asia aren't good. The prospects of either Russia or its Chinese ally continuing the war overseas are non existent given the overwhelming superiority of the Japanese navy. Air battles may continue over the Korean and Taiwan straits but apart from attrition fail to have any measurable effect.

The United States have viewed the war in east Asia with mixed feelings. Japanese aggression wasn't popular. The size of the Japanese defeat, Russian armies in Korea and increased Russian influence in China isn't particularly welcome. The United States offer to mediate between Russia, China and Japan. All three parties are quite willing to go along and a peace treaty is signed in Washington. Korean independence is recognized by all parties and guaranteed by the United States.  Japan agrees on evaquating anything it holds on the mainland, in effect recognizing the existing situation. Manchuria is divided between Russia and China. [4] The words interest turns on the restated Russian civil war...


[1] About twice as much as OTL
[2] OTL it took 90% casualties. Here its larger starting size ends in much lower casualties.
[3] By this point technology has pulled somewhat ahead between larger economies and populations and the 1929-1931 wars. Call it roughly equivalent to early 1942 by the start of 1939.
[4] China gets the modern Liaoning province. Russia Heilongjang and Jilin.


Part 17

The second Russian civil war starts with an all out republican attack north. From the start of the war and despite the fighting in the far east the fascists have a not inconsiderable numerical superiority. On the other hand the republicans have a qualitative edge both in training and early on in leadership as the Russian western commanders aren't as good as their counterparts in the far east. The opening republican attacks capture Smolensk, Orel and Voronez by the start of August. Then in the face of stiffening fascist resistance they drive towards Moscow both from the west and the south before the rasputitsa brings a temporary  end to operations.

Despite their successes the republicans are actually in trouble. The fascists have started with an economy about twice the size of the republicans and with most of the war industries concentrated in regions out of the reach of the republicans. While the republicans are able to inflict heavier casualties that they take they are not inflicting enough casualties to overcome the fascists production edge. By November the Russian  army is nearly as strong as it was when the war started. The republican army is weaker.

The fascists counterattack in November to drive the republicans back from Moscow. Two months of fighting fail to drive the republicans back despite nearly 700,000 fascist casualties. They don't fail to bleed them and force them to concentrate most of their reserves in the fighting around Moscow. In the meantime with peace signed and winter coming most of Koniev's army has been moved back to Europe. It isn't used in the fighting for Moscow. Instead in December it attacks against the weakened republican forces in Tsarytsin.

It is a disaster for the republicans. With the fascists attacking on the whole front the republican army is forced to retreat from Moscow as forces sift south to hold back Koniev. They fail to sift south fast enough to check Koniev's advance before it reaches the sea of Azov by the end of February 1940. Republican forces in the Caucasus as well as the republican oil supply has been largely cut off from the rest of republican Russia. The tide of the civil war has turned on the fascist side and with the numerical superiority of the fascists increasing by the day stays this way. The remainder of the year just sees the fascists grinding their way into republican Russia with the republicans able to inflict heavy casualties but unable to stop the fascists advance. Kharkov falls to Russian hands after two months of fighting early in July 1940 about a year after the war's start. Kiev the republican capital follows in the start of September. The next month Russian forces reach the Polish border having retaken Byelorussia. What remains of the republican state falls by the start of 1941.

With the Russian armies massing on the borders with the Baltic states, Poland and Romania the shadow of the war spreading over the continent looms over Europe. The eastern European states, Germany and France have mobilized their armies. German and French troops are deploying in the Baltic, Poland and Romania to meet the coming Russian attack. And the Russian attack never comes. 

There is actually a short furious clash between Russian forces that cross into Lithuania in pursuit of the republicans and German panzer forces that rush to meet them. It turns out to a clear victory for the German and Lithuanian defenders. A German attempt to chase the retreating Russian beyond the border doesn't go so well in the face of Russian reinforcements and a cease fire is quickly agreed uppon before the clash gets out of hand. For the coming decades historians will keep arguing whether what is named, not particularly accurately, the Russo-German border war was an accident or a probe to test German resolve on the Russian part.

The battle for Constantinople potentially could turn more serious. After the fall of Ukraine the garrison of the state of Constantinople is the last organized republican force still in existence. From the western point of view it would be better if that garrison wasn't replaced by what has become Russia proper. Obviously Moscow has a different opinion on the matter, but in the view of Italy's recent troubles [1] and as the only Russian naval forces in the Black sea are whatever former republican units changed sides it is thought that nothing much can be done by the Russians over it.

The Russians prove otherwise in a rather spectacular fashion. Russia had been a leading power when it comes to long range aircraft since Sikorski's introduced the world's first strategic bomber back during the Great war. In February 1941 2 Russian airborne divisions are parachuted into the European side of the Constantinople state in history's first large scale airborne assault while fighters and bombers operating  out of Crimea and from Bulgarian air bases overwhelm the remains of the republican air force gathered in Constantinople. When the Russians capture the San Stefano airport thus being able to land heavy transports the intra Russian fight is decided.

The potential fighting with the other treaty powers inside Constantinople is a different matter as the RN Mediterranean squadron masses in the Aegean while British reinforcements are brought in the city. For several weeks British and Russians face each other over barricades in the city and sometimes exchange fire while London and Moscow try to arrange a solution. The war that hasn't started in Lithuania threatens to start in Constantinople.

Finally Maklakov decides otherwise. Two years of war have cost nearly 4 million casualties to the now reunited Russia. Taking on the rest of Europe would be unwise. Russia needs a breathing space. Still not quite fully co-operating among each other and not particularly willing to take on a Russia with an economy already fully mobilized for war. The results of the second civil war are accepted while Russia recognizes existing borders with her east European neighbours. In Constantinople Russian troops officially take the place the treaty of Geneva gave imperial Russia in 1917, in practice the free state is cut off in sectors  as far as the various militaries present are concerned with each force controlling her own sector. Russia starts negotiating to enter the League of nations. 

[1] Something for part 18


Part 18

 The rest of Europe hasn't been quiet while the second civil war is raging. Italy, Bulgaria, Turkey and Hungary are either allied or friendly to Moscow but the republican attack fails to bring any of them in the war at least directly. it doesn't mean they keep quiet either. The three western powers Germany, France and Britain have their own rivalries and often conflicting goals. Neither of the three is very willing to get involved in the war in the east and are in disagreement over what action to take even when the tide turns on the fascist side. Britain is primarily interested over Constantinople. France and Germany unable or unwilling to agree to intervene to the republican side and with their own rivalries only a decade in the past do agree in a military convention in case the Eastern European states are attacked but nothing beyond that.

For Bennito Mussolini the second civil war and the apparent concentration of France and Germany on it seems like a considerable opportunity and in view of Italy's humiliation in Spain not one to be left unused. Greece and Serbia had been steadfist French allies since the great war and both have troubles with Italy. It is time for something to be done over this. In August 15 1940 an Italian submarine operating out of the Italian naval base in Leros attacks the Greek battleship Lemnos in the port of Tenos present there for the annual orthodox festivities. The old US made battleship [1]  is hit by 3 torpedoes and sinks in the harbour while a fourth torpedo hits the wharf. Two hours later the attacker is sunk in turn by Greek destroyers. Mussolini rages in public over what he calls an unprovoked attack on an Italian ship by the Greeks claiming Italy had nothing to do with the attack against Lemnos. In August 18th after Greece refuses an Italian ultimatum over the issue out of hand Italy declares war.

Quite unfortunately for the Italians most of the rest of the world isn't particularly impressed over Mussolini's claims especially as the Greeks come up with fragments of the torpedoes that hit Lemnos sporting Italian serial numbers. Serbia honouring her alliance with Greece declares war in August 19th . Then to Mussolini's horror France and Britain deliver their own declarations of war in August 21. For a gamble that the west wouldn't do anything given the troubles in Russia failure has been more than spectacular.

For the following  Italy suffers the results of the duce's miscalculation. The Italian forces in Albania are attacked both from the Greeks in the south and the Serbs and Montenegrins in the north and crushed before November. Italian Libya is invaded from Egypt and Tunisia and occupied. The French Italian border is too mountainous for a quick campaign. The French concentrate attacks in the less mountainous coastal regions while their material advantages come to bear. Two months, 300,000 French and 600,000 Italian casualties later the Alps are behind the French lines and the French army advancing to Turin and Genoa.

The Italian navy prudently avoids taking on the combined might of  the British and French navies especially as its battleline  is outnumbered by the French alone. It doesn't come out completely unscathed. Compared to any of the other great powers the Italian carrier arm with two 30,000 tons ships [2] is considered somewhat underdeveloped. Combined with the light forces and the faster battleships the carriers still try to interfere with allied supply lines and cover convoys to Libya. In November 6 1940 one of the Italian raiding forces is intercepted by a combined Greek and British force in the Ionian sea. Hit by the planes of the Greekcarrier  Helli and the British Hermes and Illustrious the Italian carrier Aquila is sunk and the battleship Impero damaged enough for Greek and British battleships to finish it off.

This is the final straw for Italy. A coup removes Mussolini from power and the new royal government immediately calls for an armistice. With the Russian armies in the borders of Poland and Romania the west is quite willing to agree to an end to the war. Italy has to pay a limited indemnity, gives away her bases in the Aegean and evacuates Ethiopia. Serbia and Montenegro unite in a federal kingdom, the island of Sason goes to Greece and the area of Scodra to Montenegro. The protectorates over Albania and Libya are returned to Italy.

Quite practically Turkey uses the wars to it's advantage invading the Pontian kingdom while Greece and Ukraine are fighting elsewhere. The Pontians put up stiff resistance but outnumbered over 4 to 1 are overwhelmed with the italian war still ongoing. Greece can do only little about it. What air and naval forces can be spared from fighting the Italians are used to the Pontian aid. With the Albanian and Pontian campaigns over both Greece and Turkey start shifting troops over to Ionia and western Anatolia respectively but neither is able to commence major operations before 1941.

Come early 1941 Greece and Turkey find themselves in an interesting strategic situation. The west is not willing to go to war with Turkey and potentially Russia over the Pontians. It is less adverse in going to war over maintaining western control of Constantinople or the territorial integrity of Greece proper should it be seriously threatened and willing enough to put enough pressure on Bulgaria to secure it's neutrality. This leaves Greece and Turkey in a closed environment free to fight each other without much fear of third parties getting into the conflict.  Turkey has a considerably larger population to draw uppon and strategic depth Greece is lacking in Anatolia. Greece has a much larger economy. Thus the smaller Greek army has a significant advantage in training and material over its larger opponent while Greece can afford a stronger navy and air force. But even if Greece can win a war over Ionia there is very little chance of being able to force Turkey out of the Pontian kingdom.

A Greek offensive in early March 1941 is driven back by the Turkish army. Ismet pasa, Kemal's  successor in Turkish leadership and a veteran of the Great war is favouring the "gradual liberation" school of thought in Turkish politics calling for reversing territorial losses in 1915 one at a time. The victory over the Greek army is good enough to make a peace leaving Turkey her Pontian gains and avoiding further strain on its economy. But Ismet's position isn't as strong as was Kemal's and most of the generals and officer corps in Turkey have grown up in an era of steady successes post 1916. Instead of calling for an armistice as Ismet wants the Turkish army attacks into Ionia in April.

It proves an ill advised move as the Turkish army is thus engaged in battle of manoeuvre against an army much better suited and prepared for it, while omitting the advantages it had keeping in the defensive. With the Greek air force holding control of the skies the more mobile Greeks inflict disapropronatiely heavy casualties on the attackers and then attack the gaps created in the Turkish lines capturing Bursa, the Turkish capital since 1915,  in early June. Ismet now firmly back in power and unhindered by the loss, takes personal command of the Turkish army, moves his government to Ankara and makes a fighting retreat to inner Anatolia. He is defeated in the battle of Kiutahia but Greek supply lines are growing too long for the Greeks to follow their enemy further inside Anatolia in the face of increasing resistance and guerillas springing behind the front. By the end of July the front stabilizes around Eski Sehir and Afion Karahisar.

Neither side is particularly happy with its situation. For Greece the war is costly and it can't restore a Pontian state unless Turkey is willing to agree which obviously it is not. The Greek army has to cover a large front over a long supply line while keeping control of a hostile population. And the cost of taking care of the Pontian refugees would be lower than continuing a war. Turkey has lost some of her most productive provinces as well as it's capital to the Greek army. If the war is costly for Greece it is even worse for Turkey with her smaller economy and the Greek navy blockading most of her coast. A compromise might be better for both sides. Ismet tries a last gamble first.

The Turkish navy has largely kept to port since the Pontian invasion, first in fear that Turkey might get involved in the Italian war post that serving as a fleet in being against the Greeks. On paper  it is a potent force with 3 operational battleships facing the Greek two [3]. In practice the single Greek carrier and the Greek superiority in light forces more than compensate for the disparity in battleship numbers while the Greeks hold a qualitative edge both in ships and training. But Turkey can afford potentially losing her navy without her strategic situation suffering. Greece doesn't have such a luxury. Ismet is quite aware of the fact when he sends his surface fleet out of Antalya.

It is the last battle in history between big gun battleships. By it's end two of the Turkish ships have been turned to floating wrecks under the fire of their Greek counterparts and are finished off by destroyers afterwards. The third limps back to port heavily damaged by carrier aircraft. As soon as the news of the Greek victory reach the various capitals diplomats are on the move.

A week later Germany offers to mediate between the two countries. Turkey readily agrees. Greece is somewhat more reluctant but prime minister George Papandreou understands quite well that it is to the Greek interest to end the war while Greece can claim victory and get some compensation for recognizing the destruction of the Pontians and accepts as well. Peace talks are held in Munich between Greece and Turkey while Germany, France, Britain and Russia send "observers".

With the treaty of Munich in November 1941 the Pontian kingdom is officially annexed to Turkey. The Bali kesir sanjak is annexed to Greece, leaving her with an unbroken control of the whole Aegean coast, and not so accidentally covering the Asian side of the Constantinople state in the Dardanelles that previously was bordering with Turkey. An exchange of population between the roughly 1 million Pontian refugees and the Turkish population is agreed uppon.

Even if it had to concede territory to Greece, Turkey is the one with the most benefit from the war. The territory it has gained is more  than three times larger than the area lost to Greece and of greater economic value and the possibility of a two front war facing it since 1915 has been finally removed. One by one the losses of the treaty of Galata are being removed and only the loss of Ionia and Constantinople still survive. As well as the loss of Arabia but this Turkey is quite content to live with.

There are some disagreements whether the series of wars in 1938-1941 should be called the second great war or not as the various countries involved did not find themselves embroiled in the single conflict. In the end despite disagreements of purists among historians public perceptions prevail. The second great war is over with the Munich treaty. Ukraine and the Pontian kingdom have ceased to exist. Korea and Ethiopia have returned to the ranks of independent nations. Nearly 7 million combatants most of them Russians and a not inconsiderable number of civilians have died making the toll in human lives roughly double that of 1914-17.

Russia despite the casualties and economic damaged from the war has emerged as a giant stretching from the Polish border to Manchuria with a population of nearly 250 million, the world's largest army and air force and one of the largest economies on the world. Her western neighbours view her with suspicion if not outright fear. Russia returns the sentiments to the full. The second great war might me over. The shadows of the next confrontation are already looming.

[1] Nevada class

[2] No naval holiday. Thus "considerably" more battleships around, the USN has 36 and Britain about as many but with a larger number of older ships. Britain is the leading power in naval aviation together with Japan and the United States with a dozen or more carriers each. Italy, France, Germany and Russia are behind. Carriers on all powers followed battleships sized with most being in the 30-40,000 ton range. Smaller powers most notably Spain, Holland, Greece and Turkey have modern battleships and in the case of Greece and Holland a single carrier each.

[3] Upgraded Yorks and somewhat larger and better protected North Carolinas for Turks and Greeks respectively.


Part 19

On the eve of 1942 the second great war might be over but the tensions it has left behind are more than visible. The west European powers have to cope with the Russian giant in their east while not entirely trusting each other. For the east Europeans the threat seems all the more pressing. Russia has her own concerns. Maklakov may not be interested in further adventures in the west any time soon but it can't but notice that Russia was preciously few European allies. Things are better in Asia were China in the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese war has become perhaps the closer of Russia's allies. Britain is in a delicate position herself as it doesn't quite want to commit herself together with what seems to be an emerging alliance between France and Germany especially as it finds itself often enough at odds with them, especially Germany, but even for her the main threat is Russia.

It takes about four years from the end of the war and increasing fears over the speed of Russian recovery for France and Germany to finally leave their differences aside and establish the frame of an organization capable of keeping the Russians at bay. The European defence organization is established in June 1945 with France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Holland, Luxembourg, Greece, Serbia, Czechoslovakia, Poland and the Baltic states as founding members. The four Scandinavian states opt for neutrality and a common defence agreement among themselves. Britain chooses to make herself an observer inside the EDO, keeps separate defence treaties with France and Greece but otherwise looks over the ocean to her fellow commonwealth members, Japan and increasingly the United States for closer partners instead of integrating with the continental powers.

The Italians in 1945 are still not quite certain over which side to choose in the emerging confrontation with the East. In general Italy had cordial relations with Russia. But the post Mussolini Italy is rather adverse to any connection with a fascist power. On the other hand the memory of defeat at British and French hands in 1940 is still fresh in memory. Thus while Italy leans toward the EDO it stays out of it during the 1940s.

Russia understandably doesn't view positively the rest of Europe effectively combining to face it. Reaction is twofold first trying to gain more allies  and second undermining the colonial empires of the European powers. In Europe Russia manages to keep the Scandinavians out of EDO, but  her only actual allies are Bulgaria, Hungary and Turkey with Hungary leaning towards neutrality and Turkey balancing between Russian alliance and friendship to Germany.

Russia is more successful in the middle east were the new Arab states fall one after the other under Russian influence after their independence and especially after Israel's independence. By 1950 Egypt, Iraq and Syria are Russian allies, Saudi Arabia a British ally, Iran German while Israel and Lebanon French allies.  

European cooperation goes beyond the purely military field when in 1951 Germany, France, the low countries, Czechoslovakia and Italy sign a series of economic cooperation agreements establishing a common market among them while the other EDO members sign agreements connecting them with the common market. the same year Italy finally enters EDO. But both the start of the cold war and the genesis of what is bound to become the European union pale in comparison to the coming of the nuclear age.

To the general public the discovery of nuclear fission in Germany's Kaizer Wilchelm institute in 1937 passes relatively unnoticed. The same can't be said for the scientific communities around the world and through them their governments. Several of the leading world powers take a keen interest in the possibility that fission weapons are feasible and an even keener interest to the possibility that someone else might end up having them before them. With the start of the second great war the interest around the world further increases.

Germany is the first to establish a nuclear development project in 1939 at the prompting of no less a figure than Albert Einstein, who has been horrified by the second great war. It doesn't stay alone for long. By 1940 Britain and France have already established their own projects. Italy in the aftermath of her defeat in the Mediterranean part of the second great war and the overthrow of Mussolini establishes a nuclear program in 1941 the same year with Japan and a year before the United States and Russia. Hapsburg Hungary despite being no match for the 7 great powers has her own pretensions to being a great power by itself and perhaps more importantly is privileged with a large number of leading scientists in nuclear physics and mathematics. Her nuclear program is minuscule in terms of means compared to the other seven but very much there.
    
Despite starting first and having a larger economy compared to most other great powers the German program fails to deliver a working nuclear device before its antagonists. This is due to no small extend due to wrong appointments at the head of the program, namely Werner Heizenberg, costing the Germans several years and near disaster as  Heisenberg's design if completed would almost certainly cause a meltdown. Germany's first working experimental reactor doesn't come before 1944. By then it is too late. In March 20 1945 a pillar of nuclear fire rises over the Australian desert marking the success of the British empire's nuclear program and the start of the nuclear age.

The British bomb puts on fire about every other existing nuclear program. The United States had provided limited funding to their own project, always speaking in relative terms, before the British nuclear test. France while having an independent program from Britain was cooperating with her. The second place in the nuclear race is now contested between the two nations. The French succeed barely before the United States as the first French nuclear test in 12th July 1946 is followed a week later by the first American test.

Six months later one more pillar of nuclear fire rises this time over German East Africa to be followed in April 1947 by Russia. It takes thirteen more months for the first Japanese bomb in May 1948 while Italy ends last among the great powers in November of the same year.

The nuclear race isn't quite over yet. Hungary keeps grinding her way towards nuclear weapons, Poland bordering the Russian giant and not quite conformable with her German neighbour seeks and independent nuclear capability. Czechoslovakia's relation with Hungary is best described as frosty and the Czechs are one of the world's leading industrial powers and sharing not a few of the Polish concerns. Perhaps more importantly no nuclear weapons are used in combat long enough that the projects of the minor powers start bearing fruits in the 1950s. Thus nuclear weapons keep being perceived as just more powerful bombs and instruments of national power and prestige till proliferation is well underway. 


Part 20

 For Syria and Palestine August 1945 marks their independence from France and Britain. It also marks the birth of the first independent Jewish state in Palestine since Roman times and simultaneously the start of the first war between newly independent Israel and it's neighbours.

The withdrawal of the two European powers from the region can be best described as messy. France faced a guerilla war for more than a decade and two open uprisings before finally deciding Syria wasn't quite worth the economic and military cost of keeping down. Still down to the last moment the French army kept the upper hand and the settlement granting independence to Syria was made in such a way as to ensure French interests in the region to the cost of the successor states. Lattakia is established as a successor Alawite controlled state, taking away from Syria her access to the sea. Lebanon becomes independent and in the aftermath of a French supervised population transfer it's muslim population is exchanged with Syria's christian population. The Golan heights are reserved for transfer to the Israel getting born at the same time. The remains make up Syria. Syrian Arabs that supported the French and fail to find new homes either in Lattakia or in Lebanon, move to Algeria.

In Palestine the first Arab-Israeli war or alternatively the Israeli war of independence starts the moment the British flag goes down as fighting breaks out between Israelis and Palestinians and the independent Arab states invade. On paper Israel should go down to crushing defeat as Egypt alone has 15 times the population of the young Jewish state. In practice things turn out differently. The Egyptian army, the largest among the Arab forces, proves woefully inadequate lacking training, modern equipment and with an officer corps chosen more for its loyalty to the throne than ability. Iraq since 1941 was the first Arab state to come under Russian influence but lacks a border with Israel. The expeditionary force sent to Transjordan fares better than the Egyptians but still not particularly well. The Tranjordan Arab legion is by far the best of all Arab forces if not the best force among all combatants. On the other hand it is small and lacking adequate reserves to replace casualties. On the Israeli side there is a motley collection of volunteer units varying from former veterans of a dozen European armies, to the "Jewish brigade" of the British army dating back to the 1915 forcing of the Dardanelles and the fighting in the Balkan front, to Irgun and Haganah militia, to people putting their hands on a rifle for the first time when the fighting starts.

The Israelis are hard pressed early on. The Egyptian attacks are held back even is at a high cost. The Arab legion attacking Jerusalem is a different matter dispersing the defenders and almost half of the city before the Israelis manage to stabilize things.  Fighting gradually dies out by the end of August as neither side can take the initiative. After a month of negotiation attempts fails to bring any results battles resume in October if in a markedly different form. Israel has managed to procure weapons mostly through Greece, Czechoslovakia, Poland as well as France and Germany to a lesser extend. Italian and Russian arms have found their way to the Arabs but on balance the Israelis are better off that they were when the fighting started. As the newly born Israeli air force fights it out with her Egyptian counterpart  a series of counterattacks drives back the Egyptians and the Iraqis in disarray and presses the Transjodanians, who find themselves with their right exposed after the Iraqi retreat hard. The first Arab-Israeli war is for all practical matters over and with Israel still standing.

The effects of failure on the Arab states are profound. Syria which failed to participate in the war finds itself immediately into the Russian camp. in Egypt the position of the monarchy already not particularly strong at the time of the war further wanes with defeat. It still takes some time but in 1948 a coup overthrows the monarchy. By the next year Russian military missions are training the Egyptian armed forces and arms steadily flow from  Russia into Egypt.

To the west of Egypt Libya is still an Italian colony and Italy doesn't show any intentions of leaving it anytime soon. Since Cilicia was lost back to Turkey in 1929 Libya, especially Cyreneica has been the prime settler colony of Italy and by 1950 it has been been systematically settled for nearly a generation. Things become more difficult from the Italians when arms and volunteers from nearby Egypt throw Libya into open revolt post 1950 but the rebels are to weak and Libya's Arab population too small for the revolt to succeed. With nearly 200,000 Italian troops on Libyan soil the rebels are harshly dealt with, thousands getting killed and even more running away.  By the time the revolt is over in the mid 1950s between casualties and immigration to the independent Arab states the Italians have become a majority.

Still further west France grants independence to Tunisia in 1955 but keeps Bizerta and the surrounding area to herself. Morocco were the royal dynasty can be counted uppon to stay pro French becomes independent in 1955. Algeria is a different matter. Since the initiation of the Viollete plan increasing numbers of Algerian muslims are granted citizenship every year, by the mid 50s their number is a bit over a million, while the European population of Algeria has increased with refugees from Eastern Europe settling there post 1930.
Algeria is also prospering between the discovery of oil and natural gas and sharing into the general economic growth of France during the 1950s. Between economic growth, careful propagandizing on the French part in hopes of both integrating and separating Algerian muslims identity from the general Arab identity a rift is created inside the muslim community before pro-French and pro-independence elements. French involvement in the middle east brings outright revolt in 1956.

France isn't quite alien to that kind of war by 1956. For well over a decade France has found itself fighting a rather bloody war in Indochina before agreeing to grant it independence and this wasn't the only colonial struggle it had to face since 1940. The military lessons are quickly proven when the Algerian rebels are decisively beaten both inside Algeria and in its attempts to enter Algeria from Tunisia and Morocco by late 1960. Politically wise the situation is rather more complicated than either Syria or Indochina. The French government is quick to give citizenship to all Algerians that fight with the French army and their families and massively increases the quotas of the Viollete plan already during the fighting. With the fighting over the question of the future of Algeria has to be answered. Choices are between incorporation into France with the muslims not yet given French citizenship taking it within a reasonable timeframe and  full independence the last involving partitioning  Algeria between an independent state and one to be incorporated into France.

In the referendum following in 1961 Algerians vote by a rough two thirds majority for full integration with France. [1] In the next few years thousands of hardcore nationalists leave Algeria altogether while the French will have to deal both with colons extremists not particularly happy with the granting of citizenship to all muslims as well remnants of the pro independence fighters. It isn't shy to put down both equally harsh.

[1]  Of course there is that minor fact of colons also voting in the referendum partly explaining the two thirds majority...

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