Don's Home
![]() ![]() | Contact |
2004 vs 2000 New Mexico (0.8%) and Iowa (0.9%) changed from Blue to Red (Republican) New Hampsire changed from Red to Blue (-1.3%) (Democratic with 1.3% margin) Electoral College Votes:
* Turnout - Percent of eligable voters. Recent record was 1960, when about two-thirds of eligible voters came out to back either Democrat John Kennedy or Republican Richard Nixon. 2004 Results | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
News analysis following the election found most of the media jumping on any opinion which sounded interesting. For example the election was swung by the high turnout of Evangelical Christians and the early lead reported for Kerry was because more women voted early. Statistical data and better analysis did not show either of these to be correct. See summary below.
The top cagegory for both candidates was political party. Only 6% of Republicans (37% of population) voted for Kerry and 11% of Democrats (37% of population) voted for Bush. Independents (26% of population) were split, 48% for Bush and 49% for Kerry. The issues with the most impact (computed by the percent of voters in the category times their margin for either candidate) are: Most Important Issue is Terrorism: 14% Bush Most Important Issue is Moral Values: 14% Bush Most Important Issue is Economy/Jobs: 12% Kerry White Evangelical/Born Again: 13% Bush White: 13% Bush African-American & Latino: 9% Kerry Conservative vs Liberal: 8% Bush Protestant: 7% Bush No one/someone in household has lost a job: 6% Bush Government should not do/not do more to solve problems: 5% Bush Most Important Issue is Health Care: 4% Kerry Abortion: 3% Bush Age: 3% Bush Gun owner in household: 3% Bush Same-sex couples Legal Recognition: 1% Bush Note: What these numbers mean: If everyone else split their vote evenly except for the 19% of the voters who thought Terrorism was most important, Bush would have won with a 14% majority.Summary: Initial exit polls showed Kerry with an edge. Several theories have been put forth to explain this. 1. An overwieghting of results from women, who tend to vote earlier. 2. Republicans distrust the press so are less likely to cooperate. The news media all reported the major swing issues were Cultural and Moral Values, and the increased turnout of Evangelical Christians had a major impact, however a Pew poll found that the Evangelicals effect was no different that it was in 2000. The Pew results state: The post-election survey finds that, when moral values is pitted against issues like Iraq and terrorism, a plurality (27%) cites moral values as most important to their vote. But when a separate group of voters was asked to name Ð in their own words Ð the most important factor in their vote, significantly fewer (14%) mentioned moral values.Other factors were the perceived intellectual elitism of the coasts (Calif., New York, Mass, ...) and the Hollywood support of Democrats. Middle america tended to relate to Bush more.
See Also:
|