Feridah Mohd Nadzar
MARA University of Technology
Shah Alam
Selangor

Date: 26 October 2001
Time: 10.00-10.30
 

Change is taking place at an alarmingly fast rate making it pertinent to analyze and predict future events.  Technology and its influence on the way people live, work and play for example is an issue that calls for analysis and predictions of what would happen in the future.  A possible source of determining the future can be obtained through the predictions and informed judgments of experts.  Although experts may not provide precise and detailed answers to the issue concerned, they can, however, point to a general direction and this direction will be useful to planners and policy makers.
The Delphi Technique originally developed at Rand Corporation is used as a tool to predict what would happen in the future, particularly in the area of space travel.  The method was later adapted for many uses and applied in various fields for the purpose of predicting the future and their related needs in education, medicine, community and various agencies.  The Delphi technique has evolved into a process for structuring group communication in guiding group opinions and thoughts towards consensus.  Although criticisms have been leveled at this technique, the wide usage of the Delphi makes it the most popular consensus methodologies.  Therefore, this paper will discuss the Delphi technique and outline its procedures, strengths and limitations as a tool for predicting future events.