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Today&Future Forecast Summary

Currently @10:35PM, 39F, dp 25F, 57%, 1015.6 mb, w 15, clng 5500 ft, vis 10mi, mostly cloudy, none

Well, temps were only forecasted to fall into the upper 30s last night, however they managed to go more than 10 degrees lower than forecasted. To my knowledge I'd have to say that when the skies cleared overnight with a calm wind, it allowed the temps too steadily fall until just after 6AM this morning. What confuses me is the NWS Mount Holly discussion at 330PM today. They were talking about how there is inversion now overhead which should limit any radiational cooling tonight. I just don't buy it even though they know SOO much more than me. Right now it's just too windy out there for the temps to really fall. However, when I compared last nights readings to this nights at the current time, it was already colder tonight than the last. The radiational cooling can take place all the way until after 6AM. We're at a time of the year when there's over 12 hours of darkness. That's a hell of a long time for the sky to cool off. So, I'm going against the NWS forecast and caling for colder temps then they are expecting. I could be wrong if these winds don't die down.

Something else I noticed that got my attention was the time when the temperature maxes out. Today, the temps maxed out before noon. That is a several hour difference from the time when temps max out during hte winter. It makes complete sense, but it never occured to me that there would be a difference between summer and winter. In the summer, the sun is still up at 5PM. While today the sun set at 5PM. So I guess its a certain number of hours prior to sunset is the maximum temp of the day....go figure. And that maximum temp always occurs after the sun is at its highest position in the sky because the atmosphere stores the heat instead of letting it just reflect off the ground during the day. The heat accumulates all day long...yeh enough of this.

As for today's weather, there's not much going on across the country. The one interesting area is the Great Plains. A low pressure system just coming out from the Great Basin will tap into some Gulf moisture tommorrow and spread OVERUNNING precip over a wide area. This will not be a significant precip event as overunning precip is lighter than vertical motion precip (got that from all the discussions today). There's great uncertainty into the future as to what will happen this weekend. The models are frustrating to say the least. Meteos (Meteorologists) are being forced to rely on surface observations and their own analysis of how the storms will evolve. Therefore, the most reliable meteos will be either the ones with PhD's or the REALLY old ones with lots of experience. John Hope should move over from Tropical Storms to Winter Weather alongside Paul Kocin. The two of them would make a powerhouse team if John doesn't have a heartattack from the models acting so crazy. Seriously, I think a tropical storm is easier to forecast compared to this winter.

Honestly, this is my first season truly looking in depth at discussions and some of the models. Most of the comments I read are people complaining about how bad the models are this year. Is it just this year, or has it been this way every year??? I just put that question up on the Wright Bullentin Board and shortly will get a good answer to it. Yeh enough babbling for the night...8^)...Ev