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Today&Future Forecast Summary

10:53 PM: Temp 53F, DP 33F, RH 46%, 1009.1 mb, calm, vis 7 mi, 100% str/nmbstr, lgt rn

A front is currently moving through the area with a burst of heavy rains. Right as I got out of class tonight it started pouring. I got drenched. Surprisingly after the front goes through tommorrow, temps will actually be warmer than today with southwesterly winds the cause. A reinforcing front, almost similar to an Alberta clipper, will roll out of the great lakes through our area early this weekend. Many people were speculating that a Coastal Low would form along the SE coast and move norhtward along the coast similar to Jan 2000 snow event. However, this won't happen as the storm only has the support of the southern Jet Stream. In order for it to make it this far north, a phasing between the southern and northern Jet Streams would have to occur. Too bad they won't.

Looking further ahead in the 7-10 day range, the HCEP forecast office is AGAIN commenting on a possible arctic outbreak across the Northern Plains and Northeast next week. No way, won't happen. There isn't any snowpack to keep the cold air from moderating and the higher sun angle and longer days this time of year will moderate that airmass and prevent anything severe from occuring. Therefore, looking back at this winter, late December and early January was the coldest stretch of temps. Also, we had the best shot at major winter storms, all of which passed to our south even after many models predicting them clobbering us with snow. Meteorologists have learned a great deal from the Winter of 2001-2002. They should have learned to back off from long-term forecasting beyond, lets say, 3 days. Instead they should concentrate on the short-term forecasts. It is true that a battle exists between different broadcasting medias as to who can predict the furthest in advance and who's more accurate. We royally screwed up this winter, taking the sides of biased models without recognizing the threat that the prediction could be false. Meteorologists also made too bold of snowfall predictions or even possibilities far in advance. The ONLY weather media that deserves praise is the National Weather Service. They kept composure and a conservative approach to forecasting. This is probably because they don't have any strict competition being a governmental agency. However, they probably have in the back of their minds the possibility that if Accuweather and The Weather Channel start to outdo their forecasts, then they may lose support from the government...8^)...Ev