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Today&Future Forecast Summary

Currently @10:55PM 21F, dp 12F, 68%, 1007.1mb, n3, clng unlimited ft, vis 10mi, none

All of the weather forecasters tried their best with yesterday/today's east coast low to stay as conservative as possible. They knew that the models have not been reliable this Fall and Winter seasons. I saw a post on one of the Wright Weather Bullentin board that really explained what's facing Meteorologists in today's world. Overall, there's only a 50/50 accuracy, even with advanced weather Models such as ETA and AVN, in the forecasts of Meteorologists. In most other sciences, researches would be appauled at this success rate. However, with Meteorology, there is greater respect for the researches because they are the pioneers in this complex field of study. Our capabilities are getting better, but there's still a long way to go.

Looking at today's weather maps, cold air is pretty well entrenched in the Central and Eastern U.S. Today in Miami, the high only reached the low-mid 60s. That's pretty dramatic for such a southern location. This could be a walk in the park compared to what may come down from the artic in 7-10 days. Medium and Long range models are showing cold air coming over the North Pole from Siberia and funneling into Northern and Central Canada. This type of cold air is the kind that freezes boiling water when it's thrown in the air -30-60F. Usually, this cold air will infiltrate the Northern/Central Plains and Ohio Valley. The severe cold won't have such a dramatic impact on the Coastal plain as the Appalachians tear up part of the airmass as it moves towards the East Coast. However, the Appalachians also act as a block for southwesterly warm winds and keep the cold air longer over Coastal plain as the Ohio Valley and Plains will eventually warm up. Hopefully, some of these impulses from Canada will be strong enough to trigger a low along the Gulf Coast and have it ride up the coast. There is little in the models that would support any upcoming snowstorms. Some of the meteorologists and models hint at a storm this Saturday and on New Year's Eve (Mon). Dr. Gary Gray (Millenium Weather) is NOT calling for any storm this weekend. The only chance he believes is for the New Year's storm. Larry Cosgrove and the Accuweather dude are hinting more towards the storm than Gary. We'll have to wait and see the actual observations that come in over the next couple days before killing any hope for these storms.

In the short-term, it will remain cold. The temps fell fast tonight here at our house. I'm thinking the temps could fall into the mid teens by sunrise around 6:45AM. You gotta love those cold mornings. I just saw on the 11PM news that the slopes in the Poconos are pumping out the snow. Up at Blue Mountain they should be fully opened just after New Year's. Our highs tommorrow will be in the low 30s. In fact, the forecast will stay the same up until this weekend when those storms may POSSIBLY make it far enough north to effect us. Have a good day...8^)...Ev