Edweirdo's Oakland Raiders Report

Raiders 2007 Draft Report Card

SUMMARY: the Raiders drafted a franchise QB in JaMarcus Russell, loaded up on offense in the 1st 4 rounds of the draft, and dealt malcontent Randy Moss. Notably, the Raiders did not draft any conversion projects.

I've graded each of the Raiders picks in the 1st 4 rounds for

1. Value: was the pick a good value or a reach? Graded A-F. I give an "A" grade if the player is BPA (Best Player Available) and a "B" if the player is a solid value. E.g. Reggie Bush@#2 is an A+ (he was projected to go #1), S Donte Whitner@#8 is a D (he was projected to go in the teens). This is subjective and based partly on the draft boards from The Huddle Report (THR), Rick Gosselin (RG), and Mel Kiper Jr (MK). Gosselin and THR publish the most consistent draft boards year after year.
   • Most draft purists argue that value is the most important aspect when drafting a player. People often look at the draft as a shopping list of needs, but the danger with drafting players based on need is that you often pass up far better football players. Jon Kingdon, the director of college scouting for the Raiders, said that the Raiders have always tried to go with the best player available
   • The Raiders have their own system from evaluating players, whereas many NFL teams share scouting resources such as BLESTO and National. So the Raiders take on a given player may differ from the mainstream. The Raiders put a premium on players with great measurables (height/weight and athleticism)
2. Physique: does the player have the ideal NFL size/build for his position? E.g. is he long-armed if he's an OL/DL? Graded A-F.
3. Football Ability: is this guy instinctive, consistent, smart? Does he have good technique? Does he make plays? Graded A-F.
4. Athletic Ability: is he fast, agile, strong, flexible, etc. Basically this rates the player's performance in measurable tests. Graded A-F.
5. Character/Injury Risk?: is this guy a character risk (e.g. PacMan Jones)? And/or has he had durability issues or injuries that will affect his NFL career?

My take on our needs (in order of priority): QB OT DE TE

Heights and weights per the Combine.

1st round (#1 overall): QB JAMARCUS RUSSELL

Value: A- (ranked #3 by THR, #3 by RG, #4 by MK) | Physique: A (6-5 265) | Football Ability: A | Athletic Ability: B | Character/Injury Risk: low (weight)

Scouting reports: NFL Draft Scout, NFL Draft Countdown

The Raiders filled the biggest hole on the roster with one of the most intriguing QB prospects in years.

When discussing Russell, people focus on the wrong things:

• They talk about how he can throw the ball 60 yards effortlessly. Yes, Russell's arm strength is absolutely ridiculous. But I would rather talk about how he can throw the ball 60 yards accurately. Russell has superb accuracy at all ranges, and it's reflected with in his exceptional completion percentage of 67.8% in 2006. In that sense, Russell is like John Elway. What makes Russell even more deadly is his ability to throw accurately when rolling to either side. Throwing accurately on the move is one of the things that made QBs like Rich Gannon and Steve Young so difficult to defend. Even if the play broke down, they could still make something out of it.
• People talk about how Russell is a great fit for a vertical (e.g. Coryell) offense because of his arm. He is. But I would argue Russell can and will also flourish in Kiffin's system. Russell can read the defense and deliver the ball quickly and accurately on short-to-intermediate routes. He has the mobility to roll out of pocket or buy time in it. He makes good decisions with the football (28 TDs, 8 INTs in 2006). He can see over the line without a problem, and he has a high release point, so batted passes at the LOS won't be an issue.

Bottom line: don't let Russell's arm distract you from the rest of his game. He's a franchise-caliber signal caller with accuracy, intelligence, and mobility. Those were the 3 things that Bill Walsh looked for in a QB, because they can't be taught. Russell has those attributes, packaged in a freakish physique with a cannon for an arm. If there is a concern with Russell, it's his ability to keep his weight at an optimal level. There were rumors that Russell tipped the scales close to 300 at points in his college career. He needs to stay at a healthy playing weight to retain his agility. Many feel that WR Calvin Johnson was the best player available in the draft (and I would agree). But Russell is exactly the player the Raiders need. I LOVE the pick!

2nd round (#38 overall): TE ZACH MILLER

Value: B incl trades (ranked #48 by THR, #54 by RG, #51 by MK) | Physique: A (6-5 259) | Football Ability: B+ | Athletic Ability: B- | Character/Injury Risk: no

Scouting reports: NFL Draft Scout, NFL Draft Countdown

The Raiders originally owned the #33 overall pick, and they got 3 players from that pick. How? The Raiders

• traded down to #38 with ARI and acquired the #105 overall pick. This was a deal that favored the Raiders. According to the trade-value chart: #33 = 580 points; #38 = 520 or 530 points; #105 = 84 points. So the Raiders came out 24 or 34 points ahead, or the equivalent of a high 6th round pick
• selected TE Zach Miller at #38
• traded the #105 to DET for WR Mike Williams and QB John McCown. Williams was a bust in DET, but it's important to note that Williams didn't fit Martz's Coryell offense. His system require receivers who are quick in and out of breaks and can get separation downfield (e.g. Torry Holt). Williams is a possession receiver. And that is the kind of receiver Kiffin can put to effective use. Can Kiffin motivate Williams to produce to his talent level? Time will tell. McCown is the former Cardinals starter who has good mobility.

This is the 3rd time this decade that the Raiders have used a 2nd round pick on a TE. But this pick is different than the selections of Doug Jolley in 2002 and Teyo Johnson in 2003. Jolley was considered a reach and was a pass-catching TE who fizzled out after his rookie year. Johnson was an athletic college WR who couldn't make the transition to NFL TE. Miller is a TE with good hands, route running ability, and enough speed to be dangerous after the catch. He is also an adequate blocker. And he was very productive, averaging almost 5 catches a game in 2006. I'm relieved to see the Raiders finally decide to get a pure TE. There are a number of underachivers (e.g. Courtney Anderson, who has incredible size and athletic ability) and converted WRs (Adkisson, Madsen, and Williams) who have not panned out at TE. Good pick!

3rd round (#65 overall): DE QUENTIN MOSES

Value: B (ranked #70 by THR, #76 by RG, #83 by MK) | Physique: B (6-5 249) | Football Ability: B+ | Athletic Ability: B+ | Character/Injury Risk: no

Scouting reports: NFL Draft Scout, NFL Draft Countdown

Moses is only the 2nd college DE drafted by the Raiders on the 1st day of the draft this decade. Moses rose to national prominence after a stellar junior campaign: 44 tackles (35 solo), 11.5 sacks, 20.5 TFL, and 38 QB pressures. However, he failed to live up to expectations his senior year, and his stats (and draft stock) took a hit: 33 tackles (21 solo), 4.5 sacks, 12 TFL, and 32 QB pressures. What accounted for the drop in production? Who knows, but he did face constant double-teams in 2006. What makes Moses a prospect with upside are his:

• explosiveness off the snap and ability to penetrate
• nose for the football
• ability to finish plays

He made a ton of plays behind the line of scrimmage. He has the instincts you can't teach. That is what separates him from other DEs, such as former Raider DeLawrence Grant, who had other-worldly athletic ability but a low football IQ. Moses needs to put some meat on his frame, but he has the height and long arms scouts love in a DE. He has been likened to Dolphins MVP DE Jason Taylor, another lanky, athletic, highly-disruptive RDE. Moses gives the Raiders a legitimate pass-rush threat opposite All-Pro Derrick Burgess on passing downs.

3rd round (#91 overall): OT MARIO HENDERSON

Value: C+ (not in top 100 for THR or RG, #77 by MK) | Physique: B+ (6-7 302) | Football Ability: C | Athletic Ability: B | Character/Injury Risk: yes (underachiever)

Scouting reports: NFL Draft Scout, NFL Draft Countdown

The Raiders acquired pick #91 from the Pats for a 2007 7th rounder and 2008 3rd rounder. According to the trade-value chart, that trade doesn't make a lot of sense from the Pats' perspective. Even if the Raiders had the 1st pick in the 3rd round in 2008, teams tend to de-value future year draft picks. My gut feeling? It was part of the Randy Moss trade. In recent years, the Raiders have invested 1st day draft picks on college OTs with height / long arms (e.g. Langston Walker, Gallery, Paul McQuistan). A lot of Raider fans wanted to see the Raiders pick a college OG on the 1st day of the draft. But historically, that's not what the Raiders do; they draft OTs and either keep them on the edge or move them inside. Henderson wasn't rated highly on draft boards because he was not a productive multi-year starter. But he has size and athleticism you can't teach, and those are things the Raiders have always put a premium on.

3rd round (#99 overall): WR JOHNNIE LEE HIGGINS

Value: B (#95 by THR, #99 by RG, not in top 100 for MK) | Physique: B- (5-11 184) | Football Ability: B | Athletic Ability: A- | Character/Injury Risk: no

Scouting reports: NFL Draft Scout, NFL Draft Countdown

Had a monster senior season (82 receptions for 1319 yards, 13 TDs, 2 TDs on punt returns) and a stellar on-campus workout (4.29 40 wind-aided, 4.41 40 against the wind, 40.5" vertical). In recent years (e.g. 2003, 2004), the Raiders have been selecting WRs who scored well in measurable tests. And I think the Raiders are factoring in his PR ability. I love Chris Carr; he has All-Pro level KR ability. Carr has everything you want in a stud return man: vision, instincts, burst, top-end speed, change-of-direction, balance, and guts. The only issue? Carr is too eager at times, and as a PR, he'll take unnecessary risks. Every time Carr is back waiting to receive a punt, I have to admit I'm thinking "dude please fair catch if the gunners are close!" Carr + Higgins gives the Raiders a stellar return duo.

4th round (#100 overall): RB MICHAEL BUSH

Value: A (#82 by THR, #94 by RG, #62 by MK) | Physique: A+ (6-1 245) | Football Ability: B+ | Athletic Ability: B | Character/Injury Risk: no (but will miss most or all of 2007 recovering from broken leg)

Scouting reports: NFL Draft Scout, NFL Draft Countdown

Easily considered BPA at that point in the draft. In 2005, Bush put up 23 TDs and 1143 yds (5.6 avg) on the ground. Bush was considered a 1st-round talent coming into 2006, but he broke his leg in the 1st game and missed the rest of the season. He is a back with power, deceptive agility, and soft hands. While the Raiders put a premium on speed, at RB, the Raiders do like backs with power and size who don't have great speed (e.g. Wheatley and Zack Crockett). What makes Bush unusual for a big man is his receiving ability. Bush may have to sit out the 2007 season while recovering to full strength. Even if he does, the Raiders will have a tremendous RB from 2008-2010 at a bargain contract. This was the best-value pick by the Raiders in the draft, and one of the picks the media will praise.

4th round (#110 overall): CB JOHN BOWIE

Value: D incl Moss trade | Physique: B (5-10 187) | Football Ability: B | Athletic Ability: B+ | Character/Injury Risk: yes (durability)

Scouting reports: NFL Draft Scout, NFL Draft Countdown

The Raiders acquired this pick from the Pats by trading Randy Moss. From that perspective, the trade was a horrible value. Moss can still play at an elite level. The problem is he won't do it for the Raiders. Moss very publicly quit on the team in 2006. I posted back in November that it looked like Moss wasn't trying, and 2 days later he admitted he wasn't playing his best because he wasn't happy. That started a chain of events that led to the trade. I've maintained for months that if we only got a 4th rounder for Moss, it'd be worth it to unload that cancer. The team will be the better for it. Who's John Bowie? I have no idea, read the links to the scouting reports :)

Reader Comments

If you have feedback / comments for this article, email me at edweirdosraiders@gmail.com. I may add them to this page.

BruceLFrank (2007/04/29): Honest and accurate as always.... I concur on your evaluations. IMO, The only full time starter from Day 1 is going to be Zach Miller. Of course, Russell will take over at some point in '07 unless Walter or McCown are doing better than expected. I'm hoping that Quentin Moses sees the field early and often and might develop at some point into the starting RDE opposite Burgess. Henderson has a ton of upside and he's no Langston Walker because of his athleticism and modest weight for his frame. Cable will get a lot out of him as a zone blocking tackle. Higgins will fight it out with Carr for return man and probably handle either punts or kickoffs with Carr handling the other. He's also going to be tried out in a Reggie Bush type role where Kiffin will try to get him the ball in a mismatch and let him do something in the open field. Bush if healthy plays a lot this season if he's not put on IR and he could easily start in 2008. I don't know about Bowie and Richardson, but I believe that Frampton has a legit shot to backup Schweigert at FS and play a lot on Special Teams.

edweirdo (2007/04/29): I excited about Moses too, he is the wild card of our draft, the guy who could make our draft look in a couple years like a brilliant one. If he can do what he is capable of, which is wreak havoc in the backfield consistently, our D is just going to be flat-out nasty. I also think Mike Williams could surprise the NFL. Being reunited with Kiffin is the best possible situation for Williams.

NorCal R8R (2007/04/29): Great write up...I gotta disagree with you on the A+ grade for JRuss on the physique though. Yes, dude is big but he's a little doughy. You want an A+ body, you gotta look at guys like Calvin Johnson and Vernon Davis. Those guys gotta set the bar for an A+. I do agree with you about the trade with NE for the 3rd Rounder being part of the Moss deal. That's the first thing I thought too. Thanks man. Keep 'em coming.

edweirdo (2007/04/29): Good point about Russell's physique. I adjusted it from A+ to A. His height is still excellent. He'll have no problems seeing over an NFL line.