MIAMI (AFP) - Trade ministers of the Americas seeking to create the world's largest free-trade area may see an "anorexic" version of their grand plan implemented at first, experts say.
Trade ministers from every country in the Americas -- except for communist Cuba -- will meet here in mid-November to work on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) agreement.
But with just 14 months to go, few expect all countries to meet the January 2005 deadline to complete negotiations.
The draft agreement currently has some 5,000 issues that still need to be resolved, said Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latin American and Caribbean Center at Florida International University in Miami.
The United States and Brazil -- the two hemispheric giants that are currently co-chairing the final stage of the talks -- strongly disagree over agricultural subsidies, investment rules, pharmaceuticals and intellectual property, among other issues.
But other countries more dependant on US markets may be more willing to compromise, experts said.
The ministerial talks in Miami, set to culminate on November 20 and 21, seemed to be heading to an impasse until US and Brazilian (news - web sites) officials smoothed over differences at a November 8-9 mini-summit held outside of Washington.
The 2005 deadline however may still be missed for a different reason: 2004, when many of the most controversial details will be addressed, is also a presidential and congressional election year in the United States -- and US trade officials are likely to feel strong political restraints.
"In any negotiation the most controversial issues are left to the end," added Carl Cira, director of the Summit of the Americas Center, also at Florida International University.
If the 2005 deadline is still met that may mean "an FTAA without the full participation of all 34 countries," said Gamarra, which he described as "an anorexic or light" trade agreement.
Under this scenario, separate regional free-trade areas could eventually merge slowly and at later dates.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leftist former labor leader, has taken a tough stand in trade talks.
Brazil led a group of 22 developing countries that sank the World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial meeting in mid-September in Cancun, Mexico, when the United States and the European Union refused to budge on the subsidies they dole out to farmers.
But ultimately Brazil will remain active in the FTAA talks, said Tim Power, a political scientist specializing in Brazilian affairs.
Lula "considers the FTAA too important" to leave it in the hands of the foreign ministry, which officials at other ministries have accused of being "intransigent," Power opined.
In any case Brazil's trade policy is well diversified, Cira said: one quarter of Brazil's trade is with the United States, while the rest is divided equally among Latin America -- especially the South American Mercosur trade bloc countries -- Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.
Venezuela is the only country that has shown no interest in negotiating its role in the FTAA, Cira said.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez "will be the last to come aboard," if he ever does, Cira said.
Chavez has blasted the FTAA, describing it as a "death certificate for our people."
Though not yet included in the talks, the ministers will also have to consider incorporating labor and environmental protection rules, similar to annexes attached to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which embraces Canada, Mexico and the United States.
Meanwhile Miami is bracing for a flood of protesters who are expected to target the ministerial meetings.
An alliance of organized labor, environmentalists, and human rights and church-based groups have pledged to send thousands of protesters to Miami to protest the FTAA summit.
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