The surprising success of North Carolina Sen. John Edwards' populist quest for votes in some Democratic presidential primaries is exposing a potentially painful conflict for both parties: A growing number of voters blame free-trade deals supported by Democrats and Republicans alike for millions of lost jobs.
The shift is clear in the behavior of Edwards' chief rival, Democratic front-runner John Kerry, who voted for the North American Free Trade Agreement but now promises a full-scale review of those policies immediately upon taking office.
Even the White House, a staunch backer of expanding trade beyond NAFTA with new deals such as the Free Trade Area of the Americas, has shown a new sensitivity to the topic, quickly distancing the president from comments last week by his chief economic advisor endorsing the practice of ''outsourcing'' jobs to foreign countries.
The administration continues to defend free trade as a key to increasing jobs but tempered that stance by expressing Bush's sympathy for unemployed workers.
It was a recognition, analysts say, that Bush is being hurt by the perception that jobs have left the United States because of free trade.
''There is a consensus that these deals are bad for the United States and not good for other countries,'' said Steve Murphy, the campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt, a leading free-trade critic who dropped out of the presidential race last month. ``The whole center of gravity on this issue has shifted in opposition to the kind of trade deals that don't have some sort of protection for American jobs.''
TRADE WINDS
The changing trade winds create a challenge for Bush and his Democratic opponent as each looks to woo support in key swing states in the Midwest and the South -- many of which have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs to countries like Mexico, India and China.
The issue is also complicated in Florida, where building free trade with Latin America is popular among many Miami business leaders but still controversial among labor activists, environmentalists and agriculture industries that stand to lose from greater competition.
Among Democrats, who have been splintered over free trade issues, strategists say that the dynamic of the primary battle demonstrates the new consensus.
Edwards, who as a senator supported expanding trade with China, has since built his presidential campaign on a message designed to showcase his working-class roots as the son of a textile mill worker.
THE EXIT POLLS
He has bashed free trade deals as callous to workers, and, according to exit polls, won strong support in South Carolina and Wisconsin this month from voters especially concerned about job losses and factory closings.
Most troubling to GOP strategists: Much of Edwards' support in Wisconsin's primary -- an open vote in which people of any party affiliation were allowed to participate -- came from Republicans and independents.
As he prepares to take on Kerry in 10 states March 2, Edwards now promises to make trade a marquee issue, trying to paint differences between himself and the front-runner from Massachusetts.
''I will make distinctions between Senator Kerry and myself,'' Edwards vowed during a CNN interview Tuesday night, specifically citing free trade. ``There are differences on issues.''
Edwards might find a warm reception in several March 2 states, such as Ohio and Georgia, where jobs have dwindled -- but Kerry has made an aggressive push in recent days to shore up his credentials as an advocate for workers, as well.
Kerry is hosting a series of town hall meetings across the country this week focused on issues important to workers, and in speeches he presses the case that Bush is out of touch with average folks.
KEY ENDORSEMENT
Today, Kerry is scheduled to receive the endorsement of the nation's most powerful labor federation, the AFL-CIO. Union leaders are expected to accept Kerry's pledge he will ensure that free trade deals include stronger safeguards for workers.
Some analysts say they did not fully notice the change in public opinion -- not only the unified Democratic message but growing doubt among independents, as well -- until the rush by the White House to repair the damage left by the ''outsourcing'' remarks. Even Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert was outraged by the comments.
''It was really a turnaround from the Clinton years, when everyone was happy to talk about the competitive advantages of trade,'' said Heather Williams, a Pomona College assistant professor who studies trade and politics.
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