Americans strongly believe the North American Free Trade Agreement has boosted their economy while more Canadians say the decade-old agreement has hurt it, according to an opinion poll that also suggests Canadians display quiet economic confidence.
A wide-ranging survey of both Canadian and American attitudes on the economy, conducted for the National Post and Global National, shows Canadians believe they are no worse off -- and may even be better off -- than they were a decade ago; have more confidence in the stock market than Americans; and feel our economic growth will match or better the U.S. performance.
Even so, a quarter of Canadians say we should adopt the U.S. dollar as our currency and more than a quarter would move to the United States if they were offered a better-paying job, the poll says.
"This shows that the Canadian economy, compared to the American, is doing quite well. We've had a soft landing," said Rudyard Griffiths, executive director of the Dominion Institute of Canada, an organization promoting Canadian history and a poll sponsor.
"The data suggest there is a positive economic feeling and show confidence in the Canadian economy," said Andrew Sharpe, an economist who heads the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, an Ottawa-based think-tank. "I think a lot of these responses reflect the economic reality -- we are better off today than we were," he said.
When asked to compare their current standard of living to a decade ago, a quarter of the respondents said they felt they were worse off; 35% said they were better off and 39% said they were about the same.
Lawrence Kryzanowski, the Ned Goodman Chair in Investment Finance at Concordia University in Montreal, said the poll shows a renewed confidence in Canada's economic prospects. "Until a couple of years ago, most people felt they were worse off," he said.
Almost half of the respondents said they expect the standard of living of Canadians to grow at the same pace as Americans over the next five years. The remaining half were evenly split: A quarter thought Canada's standard of living would do better; a quarter thought the United States would triumph.
Canadians and Americans were concerned with the future of the stock market, although Canadians were more confident: 75% of Americans were worried to some degree with the markets while 64% of Canadians were worried.
"Of course they are more worried. They have more money, they are richer, they have more invested in the stock market," said Serge Coulombe, a professor of economics at the University of Ottawa. "I'm worried, too. It is a very dangerous problem. I would not be surprised if it has a long-lasting effect on the stock market."
The poll was taken at the height of the Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc. scandals in the United States and at a time when Nortel Networks Corp., Canada's most widely held stock, crashed to a small fraction of its former value.
The Americans had a much better view of the impact of NAFTA, which is 10 years old this fall.
Almost 65% of American respondents said free trade has helped their economy and 19% said it hurt. In Canada, opinion is almost evenly split: 48% said it has hurt, 46% said it has helped.
"Clearly, the country is still divided as to the legacy of free trade," said Mr. Griffiths.
Dr. Kryzanowski said much of the anti-free trade sentiment in Canada may stem from a perception that the United States is not adhering fairly to the agreement.
"When you see examples like with the softwood lumber issue where the U.S. doesn't really play by the rules, it conditions the response," he said.
The poll also shows substantial ignorance of the importance of the U.S. market. Only a quarter of the Canadians knew that the U.S. accounted for more than 80% of Canada's foreign trade. More than a third thought it was about 60%, another quarter said 40% and more than 7% said about 20%.
"I think it is shocking that only a quarter of Canadians are aware of the incredible volume of trade that we do with America," said Mr. Griffiths. "Despite free trade, despite the auto pact, despite what I though was a lot greater awareness of how dependent Canada's economy is on the United States, Canadians are, frankly, ignorant of the degree of economic interdependence between our two countries."
That is worrisome, he added, as Canada grapples with policy decisions relating to our borders in relation to the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.
When Canadians and Americans were asked if they would move to the other country if offered better-paying jobs, citizens of both countries showed an unwillingness to relocate, although more Canadians would be tempted.
Almost 75% of Americans refused to move to Canada. Almost 70% of Canadians refused. More than 28% of Canadians said they would, while only 19% of Americans were willing.
"This is a statistical validation of the reality of the brain drain. One would think that national identity would trump economic opportunity," said Mr. Griffiths.
Dr. Coulombe cautioned that the brain drain applies only to the nation's top performers, meaning the impact is greater than the poll suggests.
"The U.S. can pay a huge premium for the superstars. The U.S. is buying brains, but not only from Canada -- they are buying French brains, British brains, Japanese brains, Italian brains. It is a huge resource for them," he said.
The poll surveyed 1,048 Canadians and 600 Americans and has a margin of error of 3% for questions to Canadians and 4% for those to Americans, according to Navigator, the firm that conducted the surveys.
Facing the Century is a project sponsored by the Donner Canadian Foundation and Navigator.
THE ECONOMY:
- If you were offered a better paying job in the United States/Canada, would you take it?
Canadian
Yes - 28.2%
No - 69.2%
American
Yes - 19.0%
No - 74.7%
Depends/maybe
Canadian - N/A
American - 5.0%
Don't know/refused
Canadian - 2.6%
American - 1.3%
- The free trade deal between the United States and Canada has been in place for a decade. How would you describe the effects of the agreement on the Canadian/American economy?
Helped it a great deal:
Canadian - 9.9%
American - 8.8%
Helped it somewhat:
Canadian - 35.6%
American - 55.7%
Neither helped it nor hurt it
Canadian - 2.3%
American - 5.7%
Hurt it somewhat
Canadian - 30.2%
American - 12.5%
Hurt it a great deal
Canadian - 17.7%
American - 6.5%
Don't know/refused
Canadian - 4.4%
American - 10.8%
- Which of the following would you say best describes how you feel about the performance of the stock market?
Not worried at all
Canadian - 32.3%
American - 26.3%
A little worried
Canadian - 23.2%
American - 19.2%
Somewhat worried
Canadian - 25.9%
American - 26.7%
Very worried
Canadian - 10.3%
American - 15.3%
Extremely worried
Canadian - 4.8%
American - 12.0%
Don't know/refused
Canadian - 3.6%
American - 0.5%
Source: Navigator
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