Poor David Anderson. Such grand hopes. Such pedestrian problems. In the world of a committed environment minister, the gulf between good intentions and real world pressures can swallow you up -- as Mr. Anderson understood long before his latest trials and tribulations over the Kyoto Protocol on climate change.
Consider the case of the Toyota Prius. When Prime Minister Jean Chrétien shuffled his cabinet in January, Mr. Anderson, a happy survivor, felt plucky enough to dash off a letter to each of the new ministers. "Dear colleague," it began, and went on to ask them to trim their vehicular ambitions and choose as their ministerial cars the hybrid gasoline/electric Prius, or perhaps a Crown Victoria converted to natural gas.
Mr. Anderson, who is ferried around town in a Toyota Prius, invoked the name of Mr. Chrétien in pressing his case. "He is very enthusiastic for us to illustrate our dedication . . . and determination in meeting Canada's Kyoto Protocol commitments, while inspiring all Canadians to embrace new technologies that can reduce greenhouse-gas emissions."
You can picture the minister waiting for the return mail that never came. The number of ministers willing to make the sacrifice of a few inches of leg room for the global good: zero. And these are the colleagues Mr. Anderson counts on for support in ratifying Kyoto. No wonder he's in trouble. He's up against "not in my back seat" syndrome.
As everyone knows by now, Mr. Anderson has hit a wall on ratification of Kyoto. Not an insurmountable wall, but a substantial one nonetheless.
A few weeks ago, he deluded himself into believing that headway was being made in positioning the government "on the right side of history," as his department likes to say. He went so far as to pronounce on behalf of both himself and his prime minister that Canada hoped to ratify Kyoto in time for the Group of Eight summit in Kananaskis, Alta., in June. Supporters of Mr. Anderson borrowed the language of free trade in suggesting the country take a leap of faith. Who knows? We could have an environmental technology-led boom.
By last week, the minister had slammed his Prius into reverse. "We have no deadline, we have no deadline at all," he said.
What happened?
To begin with, Mr. Chrétien has not lost his interest in climate change. His relationship with the Kyoto agreement has been unusually amorous. At several junctures, the Prime Minister has come out of nowhere to push his bureaucracy and ministers to get with the program.
But Mr. Chrétien, who would have liked to display a ratification trophy for his fellow G8 leaders, is a practical man. In recent weeks, it has become obvious to him that the issue is far more complicated than merely persuading Ralph Klein to give up breathing, in addition to alcohol.
It is truly mind-boggling how little preparatory work -- both politically and economically -- has gone into an issue that has been around for so long. But the fact of the matter is that the government has figured out neither the real costs of compliance nor the means of distributing the pain in an acceptable manner among provinces and industrial sectors. (The decision by the Americans to remain on the sidelines adds a further competitiveness dimension to an already difficult situation.)
Mr. Chrétien, naturally, is looking to meet our Kyoto targets as painlessly as possible. At last year's G8 summit, he pushed for recognition of Canada's clean energy exports. In other words, he wants credit for natural gas and electricity sales that displace dirtier energy. Such credits could conceivably fill half of Canada's remaining Kyoto gap. But, so far, the rest of the world has delivered only a process for further discussion, not a formula. Expect Mr. Chrétien to raise the matter in a loud voice at Kananaskis.
Canadians are all squishy for Kyoto, but they are only beginning to hear of costs. Will they, unlike Mr. Anderson's colleagues, be willing to sacrifice some leg room? It appears from the polling data they are prepared to pay a price for doing the right thing by the climate. But exactly how high a price is difficult to discern. How can you even ask them when the government itself hasn't a clue?
Mr. Chrétien isn't a leap-of-faith kind of guy. Some say he might sign and let his successor worry about the gap between environmental good intentions and the deep blue sea. But not if the provinces and business community are up in arms. Not if investment bypasses Kyoto Canada. Not if the public is in for unpleasant surprises.
Mr. Chrétien needs to satisfy important constituencies that he has a workable plan. For that, he actually needs a workable plan. Won't happen by June.
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