Prime Minister Jean Chretien backtracked Monday on his plan to ratify the Kyoto climate change treaty in 2002, saying instead that he hoped to ratify it "some day."
"I think it is very important for Canada to position itself to be in a position to sign Kyoto some day," Chretien said during question period in the House of Commons.
He later added: "We would like to be in a position to sign it in the very near future."
Sources in the Prime Minister's Office said Monday that the Liberal government will not ratify the accord unless it gets credits for clean-energy exports.
If Chretien pursues a hard line on the issue, it will almost certainly mean the end of Kyoto in Canada, since the European Union has already made it clear that it will not agree to credits for exports of environmentally friendly natural gas and hydroelectricity.
But Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal said that Canada could still ratify the accord, even if it does not win concessions on clean energy exports.
"I certainly think that it's important for Canada to get credit for cleaner energy exports, but it's not make-or-break," Dhaliwal said.
Dhaliwal also refuted reports that a group of senior ministers from the cabinet committee on climate change was planning to argue against ratification at today's cabinet meeting.
"That story is not correct at all," he said.
The issue of clean energy export credits is emerging as an increasingly vital issue for the Liberal government, as it attempts to placate the anti-Kyoto lobby in the oil-rich West.
Chretien has already promised that no industry or region of the country will bear a heavier burden than the others in cutting greenhouse gas emissions, but it is unclear how the government can possibly fulfil this promise, unless it can get some kind of break for the emissions-intensive western oilpatch.
Alberta Energy Minister Murray Smith said Monday that Ottawa should ditch Kyoto, and promised to present an alternative, North American plan at the joint meeting of federal and provincial energy and environment ministers set for May 22 in Charlottetown.
"The fat lady has sung," Smith said.
"Let's get on with a North American solution to this where we do business. Canada does not fit within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol."
Under Kyoto, Canada must reduce its annual greenhouse gas emissions, caused by burning fossil fuels, to 571 megatonnes by 2010, down from 705 megatonnes today. But Environment Canada data from 1997 showed that Alberta produced 70 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per capita, while Quebec produced only 12 tonnes per capita.
"Canadian ratification would be a lot easier if we had clean energy credit recognition by the Europeans and the other nations that are involved in the process of Kyoto," said federal Environment Minister David Anderson.
The idea behind clean energy exports is that Canadian hydroelectricity and natural gas can replace coal-burning power plants in the United States, leading to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Canadian energy producers argue they should get credit for the emissions reductions in the United States, to offset the upstream emissions produced by extracting natural gas or building hydroelectric dams in Canada to supply the U.S. market.
But the United States is no longer part of the Kyoto Protocol, and Europeans refuse to give Canada credits for exporting to a nation whose greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, negating the intent of Kyoto, which is to reduce the total amount of emissions going into the atmosphere.
Anderson will attempt to persuade the Europeans to change their minds at a UN-sponsored conference next month, where their eagerness to gain a North American toehold for Kyoto might overcome their skepticism about the environmental integrity of clean energy export credits.
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