OTTAWA and TORONTO - Canada's biggest business group is to warn Jean Chrétien today that ratifying the Kyoto treaty on climate change is "foolish" and would cost the economy $30-billion.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in tandem with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, will argue at today's news conference that the cost of meeting the treaty's targets is too much to bear.
"We would end up having to cripple our economy to achieve these kinds of targets," said Nancy Hughes Anthony, president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
Also today, the leader of the country's most populous province is to send the Prime Minister a letter asking him how many jobs he is willing to see sacrificed to the treaty. Mike Harris, Premier of Ontario, will contend that the province's industry would lose jobs to U.S. rivals, as the United States has withdrawn from the greenhouse-gas accord.
"What do you consider acceptable job losses to the United States and to other trading partners who don't ratify the treaty? Do you think that any jobs would be created by ratification?" writes Mr. Harris, according to a draft of his letter obtained by the National Post.
"My position is clear: Any job loss is unacceptable. Do you share this view?" asks Mr. Harris.
David Anderson, the federal Environment Minister, said he will press the United States to do more on reducing greenhouse gas emissions when he meets today with his U.S. counterpart, Christine Whitman, head of the Environmental Protection Agency.
"Ms. Whitman already has my views on the fact that I think the American plan doesn't go far enough ... But that said, within [the plan] there may be some opportunities for beefing it up, for bringing it more in conformity with Kyoto's approaches," Mr. Anderson told the Reuters news service.
"So I will be looking at those and getting expectations and intentions and also getting ideas on timelines."
Ms. Hughes Anthony said the government must address how Canada can meet its targets when the U.S. is planning only voluntary incentives to get industry to reduce its output of the gases, which many people say causes global warming.
"If Canadian industry is forced to meet the Kyoto deadline and target, there is no question that our products will be very much less competitive in the U.S. market,'' Ms. Hughes Anthony said.
She said the federal government needs to slow the ratification process, consult realistically with Canadians about a workable plan to reduce greenhouse gases and work with the United States to harmonize as much as possible on climate change policies.
The chamber and the petroleum producers' association met in Calgary over the weekend to discuss the Kyoto agreement and the federal government's stated aim of announcing acceptance of the treaty by June, when Mr. Chrétien hosts the leaders of the G8 industrial countries at Kananaskis, Alta.
Using the government's own projections, the Chamber of Commerce said meeting the targets could lower GDP by 2.5% by 2010, a loss of $30-billion to the economy or about $1,000 a person. Ms. Hughes Anthony said the projections are taken from a range of alternatives produced by the federal government's analysis and modelling group.
"The figures are not conclusive. But we tend to think the government has been low-balling the estimates ... I think it [the lack of economic impact studies] is illustrative of the fact we do have to have consultation and debate,'' said Ms. Hughes Anthony.
"We at the Canadian Chamber believe that Canada cannot achieve its Kyoto targets and therefore, it would be foolish for Canada to ratify Kyoto at this time,'' she said.
Under terms reached in Japan four years ago by 160 countries, Canada is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions, which are created by the burning of fossil fuels, to 6% below those produced in 1990.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters said last week implementing the treaty could cost 450,000 manufacturing-sector jobs and cost the economy as much as $40-billion.
Mr. Chrétien dismissed those projections in the House of Commons on Wednesday.
"I don't accept these figures," said Mr. Chrétien.
"There is nothing to be gained by frightening people when all the facts are not known. Once the facts are known then we will make the right decision.''
That infuriated Mr. Harris.
"Prime Minister, we can't afford to play 50-minute hockey when the U.S. and other competitors play a 60-minute game," he writes.
"I believe climate change is a serious issue that requires prudent, decisive action and the full co-operation of all governments. However, we must meet Kyoto's goals in a manner that protects the environment and does not put us at a competitive disadvantage.''
Mr. Anderson has pegged the cost of Kyoto at $500-million annually.
Pierre Alvarez, president of the petroleum producers association, said the Chrétien government must produce a detailed plan that makes plain the economic impacts but also with the goal of maintaining the competitiveness of Canadian companies.
"We feel there is a desperate absence of information,'' said Mr. Alvarez, pointing out that the oil and gas sector is responsible for producing only 15% of Canada's greenhouse gas emissions, while consumers produce at least 80%.
Mr. Alvarez said over the next decade, the oil and gas sector could invest $200-billion in developments such as offshore oil and gas, northern gas and in the Alberta tar sands. This investment to develop supply, mostly for the U.S. market, could be put at risk because of the cost of meeting Kyoto. Mexico, for example, is a signatory to the treaty and intends to ratify it but, as a developing country, has no target to reduce emissions.
Mr. Harris's letter makes clear Ontario has converted to the anti-Kyoto camp of Ralph Klein, the Alberta Premier, whose province is reliant upon oil and gas revenues.
"As you know, our government has always supported the principles of the Kyoto Treaty,'' the Ontario Premier writes. Apparently referring to his administration's decision to stop burning coal at the Lakeview generating plant outside Toronto and his $30 Drive Clean tax on motorists, Mr. Harris adds he is "proud of the many steps we've taken to promote energy conservation and efficiency.''
"However, Canadian ratification of the Kyoto Treaty will do nothing to protect the environment -- and will cost us jobs -- if the United States and our other competitors do not sign too,'' he continues.
It is unclear what, if any, impact the Premier's missive will have on the Prime Minister.
Mr. Harris, who will leave office once a new Ontario Conservative leader is elected on March 23, ranks among Mr. Chrétien's least favourite premiers and the two have spent nearly seven years sparring on everything from health care funding to criminal law reform.
Their fractious relationship was further damaged last month when Mr. Harris endorsed an ambush on the Prime Minister by Mr. Klein, who announced provincial opposition to the Kyoto agreement during a Team Canada trade mission to Moscow. The Alberta Premier embarrassed Mr. Chrétien on the international stage, but highlighted domestic concerns about the treaty.
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