Money pumped into New York's economy by bigwigs on a spree at the schmoozefest called the World Economic Forum: $13 million or $19.4 million, depending on how you figure it.

Cost of protecting said bigwigs from protesters bent on disrupting the aforementioned schmoozefest, a k a Davos on the Hudson: more than $11 million.

Value of international television coverage of the forum (even if such coverage consists mainly of men in rimless spectacles discussing impenetrable topics in incomprehensible accents): priceless.

That, at least, is the theory over at NYC & Company, the tourism-boosting outfit that is helping to bring the forum to New York City, starting Thursday. "Broadcasting overseas that New York City is open for business is priceless," said Cristyne L. Nicholas, president of the quasi-governmental agency, which is eager to bring free-spending foreign tourists back to the city.

All of the figures cited above are so fuzzy that they should come with footnotes. But if security costs are higher than they have been at past events, and if spending by visitors is lower, it is possible that the costs and benefits will balance each other out. Which means, in effect, that money would move out of the hands of taxpayers through the forum and into the till of the Waldorf-Astoria, the main site of the event.

The figures are also projections, which often do not pan out, as Seattle found out when it played host to the World Trade Organization in 1999. Seattle expected to spend $6 million on security while local businesses raked in $11 million; instead, the city spent $9 million — 50 percent more than expected — and local businesses say they lost $17 million after violent protesters destroyed property downtown and the police declared a state of emergency.

Still, even New York City's strictest budget watchdogs think the city will benefit from the attention generated by the forum and similar events. "This one may or may not be a loss leader," said Doug Turetsky, communications director for the Independent Budget Office. "But it helps market and expand New York's image as a host of world and national and international forums."

A lot will depend on how calm the protesters and the police remain (and how coddled the dignitaries feel).

"If it goes well, it's a coming-out party for the City of New York, and it's worth a lot of money," said John Tepper Marlin, chief economist for the city comptroller's office. He says the overall value of the event could reach $250 million (which may sound like a lot, but it's far less than the economic value of the United States Open tennis championship in Queens). "If it goes badly, it's a big negative."

The last time the city was the site of a similar gathering of international pooh-bahs and corporate potentates was in 1999, at the millennium summit meeting of the United Nations.

But that wingding attracted fewer than 200 V.V.V.I.P.'s. The forum this week will include more than 1,000 business leaders paying $25,000 a head, 200 "academic experts," 300 "media leaders" and "nearly 300 public figures" (it's unclear which category includes the sculptor and art therapist from France, or, for that matter, a certain former mayor). And the United Nations summit meeting did not attract thousands of young people planning to dress up as giant squid and avenge the ills of the world by protesting at the Gap.

Even so, police overtime during that three-day event cost $11 million, according to the Independent Budget Office. (The last Subway Series and Yankees victory parade cost $4.6 million.)

The Police Department has not said how much it expects to spend on overtime; asked if anyone had talked about the police costs, Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly said no. Asked at a news conference on Monday how much New York taxpayers would pony up for security, the forum's organizers ignored the question, but did say that their meeting's direct economic benefit would be $12 million to $18 million.

They attributed that figure to NYC & Company, which itself is using $13 million or $19.4 million. The agency came up with those numbers by calculating the percentage spent on food, shopping, transportation and lodging by a typical visitor.

It then plugged in a secret figure for how much the forum's guests will spend on lodging (secret but big — room rates start at $365 a night for the shindig). Multiply that by 3,000 guests and voilà: $13 million.

The total jumps to $19.4 million if you include a multiplier (roughly 1.5) that is standard in the tourism business and tries to estimate the ripple effects of tourist spending. For purposes of comparison, the Belmont Stakes usually bring in about $6.3 million to the city's economy. And in 1999, the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade generated $23.3 million, according to the New York City Economic Development Corporation.

NYC & Company's projections are very conservative, Ms. Nicholas said, pointing out that they do not include the huge sums being spent on soirees at restaurants like the Four Seasons, or even the amount that the protesters will be shelling out at vegetarian restaurants across the five boroughs. And the attendees at the forum tend to be big spenders, whose idea of a nice New York souvenir is a Tiffany crystal apple, not a thermometer shaped like the Empire State Building.

The big question, of course, is whether the forum attendees will actually get out and spend in New York's stores and restaurants, or whether they will be locked inside the Waldorf by protests (or by discussion topics like "Attracting Capital Inflows in a Risk-Averse Environment").

Ms. Nicholas said her agency had made special efforts to ensure that the participants "in fact will not be locked inside the Waldorf." Bus trips are planned to museums as far away as Queens, and special shopping expeditions will be made to Saks Fifth Avenue before and after the usual hours.

And to please the truly intrepid forum attendee, Ms. Nicholas has a special gift: MetroCards. So keep your eyes open on the bus.

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