MONTREAL (CP) - In a downtown Montreal hotel, well away from Canada's wheat fields and dairy plants, agriculture is set to take centre stage next week at a World Trade Organization meeting.
While few observers expect significant progress at the three-day meeting, the results will say a lot about where Canada and the 145 other WTO member countries stand in their efforts to conclude the latest round of trade negotiations by their deadline of Jan. 1, 2005.
About 25 trade ministers representing a cross-section of WTO members will assess progress and discuss how to persevere with the Doha Development Agenda, named after the mandate for negotiations on a new trade treaty that was agreed to in 2001 in Doha, Qatar.
Outside the Sheraton Centre, thousands of anti-globalization activists will unite in an attempt to disrupt the meeting and spread their message that the WTO, through many of its policies, is "a form of war."
The demonstrators claim they have already won a victory of sorts before even picking up a placard or banner by forcing the meeting out of its original hotel.
The Department of International Trade moved the event to the Sheraton earlier this month after the Queen Elizabeth Hotel cancelled the reservation over security concerns about the protests.
"This comes at the same time that (Trade Minister) Pierre Pettigrew is claiming the phenomenon of the anti-globalization movement is dead," said Stefan Christoff, spokesman for The Popular Mobilization Against the WTO, a coalition of anti-capitalist, antiwar and anti-racism activists.
The Montreal meeting, which begins Monday, is the last scheduled gathering before a ministerial meeting of all 146 WTO member countries Sept. 10-14 in Cancun, Mexico, where progress on a deal will be officially reviewed.
Next week's sessions are aimed at "weeding out" the issues so that in Cancun ministers can get right down to work, Pettigrew said in an interview.
Key to the latest negotiations is determining how to bridge the deep chasms that exist between developed and developing countries. The fundamental issue, for both Canada and many developing countries, is the elimination of about $300 billion US in annual farm subsidies they say depress international prices.
Much has been said in recent weeks about a deadlock over agriculture. There have also been suggestions that the strength of the United States' commitment to the WTO might be tested if the 2005 deadline is not met.
Pettigrew said it's unfortunate and frustrating that deadlines have been missed along the way to the ultimate 2005 target, but Canada remains optimistic.
"I see some people who say 'they are panicked,' " said Pettigrew. "But it is on the contrary. As we are really engaging (in debates) things are moving to substance, rather than just scripted positions.
"It's far too early to say 'game over.' Absolutely not."
Expectations must be kept in check, cautions Bill Dymond, executive director of the Centre for Trade Policy and Law.
"They are at an impasse but there's nothing unusual about that," Dymond said in an interview from Ottawa.
"This is going to be a long haul. It's a very complicated negotiation and it's going to take a long time before consensus begins to emerge."
Dymond said the 2005 deadline is artificial and a deal could take as long as 10 years to reach, with agriculture being "the key that unlocks the rest of it."
He added the issue is being wrongly portrayed as a rich-poor debate when it is really a battle between two groups of developed countries.
Exporting countries such as Canada, Australia, Argentina and the United States want better access to markets currently dominated by the protectionist policies in places such as Europe, Japan and Korea.
But Canada's own position is ambiguous, said Dymond.
The federal government lobbies for free trade for western Canadian exports such as grain and oilseeds, while keeping high tariffs on poultry and dairy products to protect eastern Canadian producers from imports.
The political balancing act can often be "awkward," said Dymond.
For the many civil society organizations keeping a close eye on the WTO negotiations, and those protest groups bent on disrupting the meetings, the very heart of the issue comes down to economic and social justice for the developing world.
Without significant progress on the agriculture question next week in Montreal, the future of the entire treaty is at risk, says Jean-Louis Roy, president of Rights and Democracy.
For example, many West African countries struggling to trade amongst themselves are constantly thwarted by dumping from European nations in the name of open markets, said Roy. Yet, those African countries aren't able to secure even the smallest fragment of the European agriculture market.
"To be frank I don't see a movement by the U.S., Canada and the European community that is huge enough to change the pattern," said Roy.
"We're not anti-trade, we're for fair trade. We're working to have a system that will be fair, that will be non-discriminatory, that will put equity in the system and at the end of it will produce shared growth and shared development."
Rights and Democracy will be among several groups, including the Canadian Council for International Co-operation, Oxfam Canada and Medecins sans frontieres, to hold a news conference Monday to express their priorities for the WTO meeting.
Several blocks away, The Popular Mobilization against the WTO will begin a three-day protest on the streets.
They will be preceded by a day of workshops on Saturday and by a march on Sunday to draw attention to the link between economic and globalization issues and the realities facing immigrants and refugees in Canada.
Christoff's group hopes to draw attention to issues such as the displacement of indigenous people around the world by governments and multinational corporations, and the need for generic AIDS drugs in Africa.
Progress was recently made on generic drugs.
At a WTO mini-ministerial meeting last month in Egypt, negotiators made gains on an agreement that would allow poor countries to import cheaper, generic copies of drugs to treat AIDS, malaria and other diseases.
Some supporters of the WTO and the current negotiations say the standard of living of the world's poor has improved.
"The evidence suggests trade is indeed good for the poor in a global sense," said David Stewart-Patterson, executive vice-president of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives.
"More openness is going to bring more progress to those who need it most. This round of multilateral trade negotiations in particular is focused on how we do the right thing and bring the benefits of freer trade to those who need it most."
Dymond said that if there is in fact a stall or deadlock in the negotiations in the coming weeks, there will likely be little impact on the Canadian economy because it is so closely tied to the U.S. economy.
"The performance of the Canadian economy depends on the extent of economic integration of the United States," said Dymond.
"That's wholly outside the WTO purview or the ability of WTO negotiations to influence."
Other issues expected to be on the table next week include reducing barriers for industrial goods and services trade.
Pettigrew says he also plans to raise with some of his counterparts how to get Canadian beef exports back onto key markets such as the United States and Japan, which closed their borders after a single case of mad cow disease was discovered in Alberta this spring.
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