OCTOBER 19TH, 2004
BEST PICTURE
1. THE AVIATOR, by Martin Scorsese (Miramax)
2. ALEXANDER, by Oliver Stone (Warner)
3. FINDING NEVERLAND, by Marc Forster (Miramax)
4. ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND, by Michel Gondry (Focus)
5. KINSEY, by Bill Condon (Fox)
6. A Very Long Engagement, by Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Warner)
7. Closer, by Mike Nichols (Columbia)
8. Fahrenheit 9/11, by Michael Moore (Miramax)
9. The Passion of the Christ, by Mel Gibson (New Market)
10. The Phantom of the Opera, by Joel Schumacher (Warner)
out there... Vera Drake (New Line), Spanglish (Columbia) and Ray (Universal)... everything else looks really unrealistic now. Yes, even Motorcycle Diaries (Focus).
BEST DIRECTOR
1. MARTIN SCORSESE, for The Aviator
2. MIKE NICHOLS, for Closer
3. OLIVER STONE, for Alexander
4. MICHEL GONDRY, for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
5. MARC FORSTER, for Finding Neverland
6. Michael Moore, for Fahrenheit 9/11
7. Jean-Pierre Jeunet, for A Very Long Engagement
8. Bill Condon, for Kinsey
9. Mike Leigh, for Vera Drake
10. Mel Gibson, for The Passion of the Christ
Out there... Walter Salles (The Motorcycle Diaries), Alejandro Amenábar (Out to Sea), James L. Brooks (Spanglish), Taylor Hackford (Ray), Zhang Yimou (House of Flying Daggers), Alexander Payne (Sideways) and Joel Schumacher (The Phantom of the Opera). Director is always a wider race.
Lead Actor
1. JAMIE FOXX, in Ray
2. JAVIER BARDEM, in The Sea Inside
3. LEONARDO DI CAPRIO, in The Aviator
4. JOHNNY DEPP, in Finding Neverland
5. JIM CARREY, in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
6. Liam Neesom, in Kinsey
7. Colin Farrell, in Alexander
8. Jim Caveziel, in The Passion of the Christ
9. Jude Law, in Closer
10. Jeff Bridges, in The Door on the Floor
Out there... too many to be counted... check out my article on the frontpage ;)
Lead Actress
1. ANNETTE BENING, in Being Julia
2. IMELDA STAUNTON, in Vera Drake
3. AUDREY TATOU, in A Very Long Engagement
4. UMA THURMAN, in Kill Bill vol. 2
5. KATE WINSLET, in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (or Finding Neverland)
6. Hillary Swank, in Million Dollar Baby
7. Catalina Sandino Moreno, in Maria Full of Grace
8. Julia Roberts, in Closer
9. Kim Bassinger, in The Door on the Floor
10. Nicole Kidman, in Birth
Out there... well, this race seems to have two locked nods (Benning and Staunton) and a not so huge selection. I doubt that we'll find another name in the nods that isn't in the top 8. Bassinger and Kidman are only thrown here as fillers and because they may get critical support by the end of the year (remember, Kidman can still win critical awards for the combo Dogville-Birth).
ONE YEAR IN ADVANCE PREDICTIONS...
(bolded: predicted winners, red: already out)
BEST PICTURE
| ALEXANDER, by Oliver Stone | THE AVIATOR, by Martin Scorsese | PROOF, by John Madden | SPANGLISH, by James L. Brooks | THE TERMINAL, by Steven Spielberg |
Dark Horse: Almodovar's Bad Education. Basically it will depend on wether it is submitted or not as Foreign Film in front of Amenabar's Mar Adentro. If it is not submitted, its chances of a Best Picture nod will be rocketed.
BEST DIRECTOR
| Pedro Almodovar, for Bad Education | James L. Brooks, for Spanglish | John Madden, for Proof | Martin Scorsese, for The Aviator | Steven Spielberg, for The Terminal |
Dark Horse: Quentin Tarantino, for Kill Bill vol. 2. As it happened with The Lord of the Rings, Hollywood seems to be waiting to judge the two parts as a whole... if Volume 2 is as good as the 1st one, watch out for Tarantino at Director and Original Screenplay. Thurman and Carradine will probably be nominated or fight for the nod till the very last minute, anyways.
BEST ACTOR
| Gael Garcia Bernal, for Bad Education | Johnny Depp, for JM Barrie's Neverland | Leonardo di Caprio, for The Aviator | Colin Farrell, for Alexander | Tom Hanks, for The Terminal |
Note: Bernal, Farrell and Hanks have another showy turns this year that might be alternate picks... Bernal will play Che Guevara in "The Motocycle Diaries" by Walter Salles, Farrell an AIDS victim in "A home at the end of the world", and Hanks a clearly comedic turn in Joel Coen's "The Ladykillers" remake... all three will show this year a wide range of acting abilities, which push them above usual Oscar pretender Tom Cruise (Collateral) for example.
Dark Horse: Javier Bardem, Mar Adentro. The new Alejandro - The Others - Amenabar movie is the real story of a handicapped man who fought his whole life from his bed for his right to die. The most Oscarish role of the year, but in a foreign language movie. But you know, it's Bardem, and it's Amenabar.
BEST ACTRESS
| Cate Blanchett, for The Aviator | Nicole Kidman, for Dogville | Gwyneth Palthrow, for Proof | Uma Thurman, for Kill Bill vol. 2 | Kate Winslet, for JM Barrie's Neverland |
Dark Horse: Reese Witherspoon, Vanity Fair. A total change of path for Reese, in a costume movie. Watch out for her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
| Paul Bettany, for Dogville | David Carradine, for Kill Bill vol. 2 | Jake Gyllenhaal, for Proof | Sir Anthony Hopkins, for Proof | Stanley Tucci, for The Terminal |
Dark Horse: Javier Cámara, Bad Education. After his shameful snub of a nod - and many american awards - for one of - hands down - 2002's best male performances, he won't be unknown for the Academy and he may find a nod for playing a transvestite in Almodovar's next movie... first images show that he's once more a natural-born-scenestealer, and if the movie gets the support it looks it's going to receive, a surprise nod for him isn't out of the imagination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| Tea Leoni, Spanglish | Laura Linney, Kinsey | Bette Midler, The Stepford Wives | Sissy Spaceck, A Home at the End of the World | Meryl Streep, The Manchurian Candidate |
Dark Horse: Paz Vega, Spanglish. I know, I'm too Spain-biased but well, she's in the right english-spoken movie to shine and people will remember her for her cameo in Talk to Her and her dazzling performance in Sex and Lucia. And we all know how good is James L. Brooks at getting his actors nods.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
(I'm assuming only three nominees)
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| The Incredibles | The Polar Express | Shark Tale |
Dark Horse: Shrek 2. If it is better than the Original, then it may jump over Shark Tale.