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THE ULTIMATE MARKET POTENTIAL OF THE INTERNET

While it's no surprise to anyone that the United States is the world's most wealthy market, much of the U.S. business community seems oblivious to the fact that approximately 78 percent of world economic power is based outside of U.S. borders …and unless non-U.S. companies are expanding into non-domestic markets in addition to the U.S., they are afflicted with a variation of the same myopic view of global commerce.  Consequently, it's of vital importance to secure the advantages of gaining a more cosmopolitan perspective of the Internet's business potential.

According to the Direct Marketing Association, 113 million American catalog shoppers will order more than $75 billion (UK milliard) worth of goods in 1997.  Projections from the market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) indicate about 9 million computer users will order just $5.4 billion worth of products on the Internet this year.  Though figures vary, the future looks brighter, with projections ranging from $73 to $100 billion for the year 2000.  Forrester Research forecasts business-to-business eCommerce at $66 billion in U.S.-related Internet revenues, while improved security and the increasing number of households on the Internet drive consumer retail to $7 billion by 2000.  IDC projects that growth of sales combined with an increase in the number of users buying and selling goods and services on the World Wide Web will boost commerce on the Internet to $100 billion in the year 2000.

From an international perspective, in 1997, total U.S. imports of merchandise and services will very likely exceed $1 trillion (UK billion) for the first time in history, while U.S exports of merchandise and services are expected to approach $900 billion.  Each percentage point of bilateral U.S. trade that is Internet-based in 1997 represents a value of $19 billion in market activity!  While there is no way to determine what percentage of U.S. trade activity is facilitated via the Internet (i.e., contact initiated through Web sites or negotiated via e-mail); there is no doubt that it occurs.  In fact, travel services, a business sector for which export-import figures are tracked, are among the hottest business sectors on the Internet.

Worldwide imports for 1997 will approach $5 trillion – which increases the magnitude of the single percentage point mentioned above to $50 billion.  This is not presented to debate the current levels of Internet-based international commerce, but to generate awareness that there currently exists Internet market opportunities measurable in trillions of dollars for those with the savvy to direct efforts toward tapping into that potential.  A potential continually fueled by an ever-increasing awareness of the globalization of commerce at least partially resulting from the exponential growth and evolution of the Internet.  Perhaps international trade has remained invisible to the many economists, Internet experts, and companies intent on determining the metrics of Internet commerce because it is tracked through government agencies and finalized in the transfer of funds from one financial institution to another; nonetheless, it is there, and it is being overlooked.

An important factor in the equation is that based on a subjective analysis of U.S. Department of State and CIA publications, markets in which the English language is considered either an official language, an associate language, or widely used throughout governmental/educational institutions and business/commercial communications, constituted trade partners representing over 42 percent of the U.S. merchandise import market and over 50 percent of its merchandise export market in 1996.  Using conservative trade projections, these figures represent approximately $379 billion in U.S. merchandise import and $335.8 billion in U.S. merchandise export opportunities in 1997.  The vast number of world business leaders educated at English-speaking universities assures that the figures presented here are a conservative estimate.  These facts, and recent news revealing that 85 percent of the Internet is in the English language, are compelling reasons for companies located in non-English speaking countries to consider expanding their Internet presence to include English language pages on their Web sites.  This is not intended to endorse an English-only approach to international marketing, which in my view would be a mistake; but to kindle an awareness of the power inherent in even the most basic tools.

It is also important to consider the contrast between Internet site development targeting consumers and those directed toward developing business-to-business sales.  Consumers have to be lured to a site, enticed to explore it, informed about a company's products, and motivated to buy those products, all while being entertained by site content that is updated on a regular basis – attempting to accomplish this can be extremely difficult, time consuming, and expensive.  Any attempt to do this across cultural and international boundaries only further complicates the process, making such objectives even more difficult to achieve.

In comparison, businesses effectively targeted (those having an interest in, need for, or distribution channel appropriate for a company's products), need only be made aware of that company's Web site.  Typical business browsers have a much more utilitarian approach and seek only information – data on a company's background, product line, contact information, and an e-mail link are enough to begin a more substantial dialog.

In terms of market fulfillment, most companies approach the Internet as they would mail order marketing; however, it is important to understand that attaching an international address label to a package changes that sale to an export-import transaction subject to the regulatory authority of numerous government agencies on either side of that transaction.  This is not necessarily (dependent on the products/markets involved) as ominous as it seems, but does mandate understanding and adhering to both the export regulations of the domestic market in which a company is based, and the import regulations of a particular market prior to making a commitment (i.e., responding to a non-domestic inquiry with a pro forma invoice) to export merchandise to that market.

Relatively few of the world's consumers are on the Internet – while cyberspace gurus have long touted the importance of establishing a marketing presence on the World Wide Web, I am not aware that any have made the leap to endorse using cyberspace as a gateway to develop a presence in new real-world markets. Done properly, international business-to-business Internet marketing can be a highly effective way of gaining access to those new markets, and ultimately, the consumers within them. There is no greater potential than that of global marketing – with proper preparation, and if implemented as an integral element of a well-developed real-world marketing strategy, an Internet presence can quite literally put a company on the world map!


© 1996 - 2000   Thomas J. Judge Jr.   All rights reserved.

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