By Joy Kim, December 2001
Three and a half years have passed since the day of the 1998 NHL Entry Draft in Buffalo, New York. In that time, we've had three world junior championships, three world championships, three Stanley Cup champs. Mike Keenan's coached three different teams, and the Flyers have had three different coaches. Ray Bourque won, Gretzky retired, and Lemieux came back. That's a lot of hockey, folks.
So how have things panned out for the twenty-seven skinny teenagers drafted in the first-round back in 1998? It's always hard to evaluate a draft--the more time, the better--but enough time has passed that we can have a basic idea of which players will live up to their expectations and of which players will not. All of them, even those who have tasted some significant NHL success, are still works-in-progress, and there might be a sleeper from 1998 who will be surprising everyone in 2008.
Twenty-seven players were drafted by twenty-three teams in the first round of 1998. Colorado had four picks; New Jersey picked twice after swinging a last-minute deal for Dallas' pick at #27. The Sharks and Predators made a draft-day deal as well, swapping slots, so the Predators got David Legwand and the Sharks got Brad Stuart. Of the twenty-seven players, fifteen were forwards, ten were defensemen, and two were goalies.
Hockey pundits called it a deep draft, in its own way. In 1997, everyone was talking about one of the best drafts ever. In 1998, there was a perceived drop-off in quality after Legwand and Vincent Lecavalier and again after Stuart and Bryan Allen. Some observers also added, however, that the quality decline leveled off after those top four picks: a #27 pick might be as solid as a #12 pick. The play of the last few players selected in the first-round has certainly shown the wisdom of that prediction.
Obviously, there's no single standard that can be used to judge and compare these twenty-seven players on different teams at different positions. In general, however, it's worth considering three different things:
1) Expectation. What did the drafting team expect from their picks? Obviously, the Lightning (drafting overall) expected more from Vincent Lecavalier than did the Devils (drafting at #27) of Scott Gomez. Scott Parker, drafted at #20, has become a pretty good role player for the Avalanche, but was he worth a first-rounder (especially when the likes of Simon Gagne, Jiri Fischer, and Scott Gomez were still available)?
2) Production. Simply put, what has the drafting team gotten for its valuable pick thus far? This is where I'll most look at NHL stats and hard numbers. It's all well and good to have a nice prospect in the system, but sooner or later you want that prospect to become a contributing player.
3) Potential. How much more can the drafting team expect from its pick? At this point, some of these drafted players may have shown that their potential was highly overrated in June 1998. Has the player already reached his peak? Is the player showing a strong or weak learning curve? Is the sky still the limit, or are the limits becoming all too obvious?
Let's begin with some numbers. All these figures are based on NHL stats as of December 24, 2001. The player's original draft order is indicated in parenthesis after his name.
| Top NHL points per game average for forwards: | Top NHL points for forwards: |
|---|---|
| 1. 0.79 Alex Tanguay (12) | 1. 161 Vincent Lecavalier (1) |
| 2. 0.77 Simon Gagne (22) | 2. 150 Alex Tanguay (12) |
| 3. 0.76 Scott Gomez (27) | 3. 146 Scott Gomez (27) |
| 4. 0.61 Vincent Lecavalier (1) | 4. 141 Simon Gagne (22) |
| 5. 0.48 David Legwand (2) | 5. 90 David Legwand (2) |
| Top NHL points per game average for defensemen: | Top NHL points for defensemen: |
|---|---|
| 1. 0.38 Brad Stuart (3) | 1. 74 Brad Stuart (3) |
| 2. 0.27 Martin Skoula (17) | 2. 54 Martin Skoula (17) |
| 3. 0.26 Dmitri Kalinin (18) | 3. 26 Dmitri Kalinin (18) |
| 4. 0.15 Jiri Fischer (25) | 4. 21 Jiri Fischer (25) |
| 5. 0.12 Robyn Regehr (19) | 5. 20 Robyn Regehr (19) |
| Number of NHL games played: |
|---|
| 1. 262 Vincent Lecavalier (1) |
| 2. 199 Martin Skoula (17) |
| 3. 193 Brad Stuart (3) |
| 4. 192 Scott Gomez (27) |
| 5. 190 Alex Tanguay (12) |
| 6. 186 David Legwand (2) |
| 7. 183 Simon Gagne (22) |
| 8. 177 Manny Maholtra (7) |
| 9. 163 Robin Regehr (19) |
| 10. 144 Vitali Vishnevski (5) |
| 11. 141 Jiri Fischer (25) |
| 12. 129 Nik Antropov (10) |
| 13. 122 Scott Parker (20) |
| 14. 99 Dimitri Kalinin (18) |
| 15. 85 Mathieu Biron (21) |
| 16. 77 Milan Kraft (23) |
| 17. 51 Mark Bell (8) |
| 18. 32 Rico Fata (6) |
| 19-tie. 13 Bryan Allen (4) |
| 19-tie. 13 Eric Chouinard (16) |
| 21. 4 Patrick DesRochers (14) |
| 22. 3 Mike van Ryn (26) |
| 23-tie. 0 Michael Rupp (9) |
| 23-tie. 0 Jeff Heerema (11) |
| 23-tie. 0 Michael Henrich (13) |
| 23-tie. 0 Matthew Chouinard (15) |
| 23-tie. 0 Christian Backman (24) |
After looking at these numbers, it's easy to divide the first-rounders into a few general groups.
The NHL draft is always a game of chance. It's nice to get a solid NHL player from a pick, let alone a player that has star potential. Three forwards from the first-round of the 1998 draft have already tasted NHL success and exhibit the potential to reach even greater heights: Alex Tanguay (#12, Colorado), Gagne (#22, Philadelphia), and Gomez (#27, New Jersey). This trio entered the league in 1999-2000, and they had an immediate impact while playing for elite teams. Gomez had the most impact as a rookie. He raked in every rookie honor, scored a point a game, and won the Stanley Cup with the Devils that season.
In 2000-2001, Tanguay was probably the biggest star of the bunch. Playing with flashy forwards like Joe Sakic and Milan Hejduk, Tanguay scored 77 points during the regular and added 21 points during Colorado's successful Stanley Cup run.
Now, in 2001-2002, Tanguay and Gomez have both struggled, while Gagne has soared. The production of Tanguay and Gomez is down; both players are on a pace to have less points than they did during their rookie season. Tanguay probably has Stanley Cup hangover, while Gomez is missing his old linemate, Alexander Mogilny (now in Toronto). Meanwhile Gagne is now on pace for his first thirty-goal season and he is the youngest member of the Canadian Olympic team.
Over their two and a half years in the league, Tanguay, Gagne, and Gomez have nearly identical numbers, and it's impossible to say which of the bunch will ultimately be the best. All three have a combination of talent and character that will take them very far. It seems clear, however, that they're at the head of a class of elite young forwards. All three have been excellent picks for their organizations, though Gagne and Gomez were bigger steals, being drafted later.
Before going on to the defensemen, it's worth noting one important thing about this successful trio. They were all drafted by deep, talented, playoff-caliber teams: Colorado, New Jersey, and Philadelphia. These teams have depth and talent aplenty. They don't need to rush their prospects, nor do they burden their draft picks with the expectation of being the savior of the franchise. (Well, not anymore at least--we all remember the twisted Philly-Lindros affair.) And these three teams are stocked with veterans who can support, teach, and guide their young teammates. So Tanguay, Gagne, and Gomez enjoyed an extra year in juniors. When they finally arrived in the NHL, they were surrounded by talent that passed them the puck, that put their passes in the net, and that taught them how to be an NHL player.
Simon Gagne is developing into a young star, but he's had his rough patches (especially after he injured his shoulder in February 2001). How much do you think he's grown due to the guidance and protection of veterans like Mark Recchi and Rich Tocchet? Ditto for Alex Tanguay in Colorado--he plays with Joe Sakic and even lived in Patrick Roy's basement during his rookie year. Teenagers don't flourish in the NHL without great teammates, and Tanguay, Gagne, and Gomez are no exceptions.
Ten defensemen were drafted during the 1999 first round, and seven of them are already taking regular shifts on teams around the NHL. Not too shabby. These seven are: Brad Stuart (#3, San Jose), Vitali Vishnevski (#5, Anaheim), Martin Skoula (#17, Colorado), Dmitri Kalinin (#18, Buffalo), Robin Regehr (#19, Colorado, now with Calgary), Matthieu Biron (#21, Los Angeles) and Jiri Fischer (#25, Detroit). Stuart and Skoula are probably the highest-profile members of this group. Stuart had a very solid rookie year in 1999-2000, being both All-Rookie and a Calder Finalist, and he's very quickly becoming a #1 defenseman for the Sharks. Skoula was recently named to the Czech Olympic team. Again, it's difficult to say which of these five players has the highest potential. Most would put Stuart first, but who knows what the future holds? Young Jiri Fischer has struggled to earn ice-time on a veteran Detroit club, but no one knows what he'll accomplish as he begins to share the load of players like Chris Chelios and Niklas Lidstrom.
What about the other three, you ask? Bryan Allen is still a top prospect of the Canucks, but he's mostly playing in the minors. He had an excellent rookie season in the IHL in 2000-2001, and he now plays in the AHL. Mike Van Ryn became a free agent through a legal loophole, signed with the St. Louis Blues, and now plays in Worcester (AHL). And Christian Backman is still playing in Sweden.
This brings us to Lecavalier and Legwand, drafted at #1 and #2 overall. On draft day, they were considered to have a far superior level of talent and potential than any other player available. Consequently they have faced much higher expectations. The owner of the Tampa Bay Lightning famously compared Lecavalier to Michael Jordan on draft day, and Legwand was supposed to be the cornerstone of the new Nashville franchise. How can any teenager be expected to live up to such hype?
Many don't. Sure, some number ones flourish in the NHL, but for every Mario Lemieux there's a Alexandre Daigle, for every Mike Modano there's a Greg Joly. (Greg Joly? Wondering who that is? I think that proves my point.)
This is why Lecavalier and Legwand must be considered apart from the rest of their draft class. Like the players named above, they've developed into solid NHLers, but they haven't burned up the league. Lecavalier jumped directly to the NHL and soon became the captain of the hapless Lightning. They've still missed the playoffs for three years, and this season doesn't promise to be much different. Legwand failed to make the Predators roster in his first training camp, and he returned for one more season in the OHL. His numbers have been somewhat underwhelming as well, and his point per game average is far lower than Lecavalier's.
The jury's still out on Lecavalier and Legwand. Oh, we know that they can play in the NHL--we simply don't know at what level. Will they remain above-average forwards on mediocre (or worse) teams? It's particularly difficult to judge them on their production thus far simply because they've played on some really wretched teams. I'd bet good money that Lecavalier would be a superstar if he'd had the luxury of playing with Joe Sakic for a couple of years.
No one doubts their talent or potential--especially for Lecavalier, who every team in the league would like to trade for--but if Lecavalier and Legwand don't make a greater impact in the next few years, the pundits are going to start wondering aloud, "Why didn't they draft so-and-so instead?" Because for #1 and #2 draft picks, above-average is a disappointment.
Disappointment is the main sentiment associated thus far with a handful of other draft picks from the 1998 draft. Michael Rupp, Michael Henrich, and Jeff Heerema are three of just five players from the 1998 first-round who have yet to play a single NHL game. Of the other two, one is a goaltender (Mathieu Chouinard) and one is European (Christian Backman). So Rupp, Henrich, and Heerema have some explaining to do.
Rupp never came to terms with the Islanders. He re-entered the draft and was eventually picked by New Jersey. Obviously the Islanders got nothing for this pick, and it's not entirely clear if New Jersey will either. Rupp, Henrich, and Heerema are all now playing in their second year in the AHL, and each has been somewhat productive this season. Observers think that they have NHL skill, but they might lack the desire and drive that's necessary for NHL success. They still all have a good shot to become solid regulars, but there's much less of a reason to think that they can ever live up to being a first-round pick.
Hindsight's always 20/20, but these days its difficult to see why these players were drafted before most of the players that followed them in the first-round.
Two other disappointments from the 1998 first-round are Rico Fata and Manny Malholtra. Both are now in the Rangers organization, though Fata was originally drafted by Calgary. Malholtra largely seems to have been a victim of circumstance. He was rushed to the NHL in 1998-1999, and his development has undoubtedly suffered since then. Overmatched at the NHL, his confidence has suffered, and it may be a while before anyone can get a real read on what he can become. Malholtra's defensive play has been very good, but he might benefit from a change of scenery. And who knows when that could happen? Malholtra's name has been a regular in trade rumors since he was drafted.
Fata was put on waivers this fall, which is how he ended up with the Blueshirts. Fata's main asset is his blinding speed, but he hasn't shown much aptitude for scoring at the NHL level--he has all of one assist in 32 NHL games. His play has also been frustratingly inconsistent, and some scouts who suggested that Fata lacked hockey sense now seem vindicated. The fact that Fata was even put on waivers suggests how far his stock has fallen.
Draft Day's always a time for guessing and making predictions for the future, so let's make some predictions for the first round of the 1998 draft.
#1: That Tanguay, Gagne, and Gomez will continue to shine. Teams around the league will wonder why they didn't draft them. Pierre Lacroix in Colorado will think to himself at some point in time that he could have drafted all three. Imagine all three on one team!
#2: That Vincent Lecavalier will become the superstar that he has always been destined to be. He's got too much going for him to simply be above average. In the next three years, he'll be as productive as Tanguay, Gagne, and Gomez. I'm afraid I'm not yet willing to predict the same for Legwand.
#3: That Brad Stuart will someday win a Norris Trophy.
#4: That one other member of this draft class will be a late bloomer a la Joe Thornton and surprise us all, after we'd dismissed them as a bust.
1999-2000: Winner - Scott Gomez
1999-2000: Finalist - Brad Stuart
1999-2000: Simon Gagne, Scott Gomez, Brad Stuart
1999-2000: Scott Gomez
2000-2001: Simon Gagne
1999-2000: Scott Gomez
2000-2001: Alex Tanguay, Martin Skoula, Scott Parker
Canada - Simon Gagne (Updated 2/02 - Gold Medal)
Czech Republic - Martin Skoula
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