China's a country which hasn't reached anywhere near it's potential to be a major player on the world scene. It could easily surpass all countries, including the United States, by shear force of numbers of workers and consumers of products once it shook off the suppressive yoke of Communism, became truly democratic and modernized sensibly. A tall order but easily do-able. The old fellows in their 80's you see in the top seats of the Chinese government aren't the true rulers and managers of China. They serve more as figure-heads, much like our Senate but with far less influence. It's their assistants and younger managers running their departments who really hold the power.

I've travelled and spent considerable time in Asia, including Hong Kong and mainland China and I speak a little of the language. My wife grew up in China and came to the West as a refugee in her twenties just after the student killings in Bejing. One thing which becomes apparent to you as you travel around the country is the immense population in comparison to most all other countries except perhaps India. The proportions of bodies utilized in relation to everything, army, policemen, government workers, bank employees, street cleaners,etc. is immense! In one view, down one street, in one major city, your eyes can take in 50,000 people. Glance down another street you're crossing at an intersection and see another 50,000 people. Turn around and see another 50,000 people behind you! Incredible! And that's only the people on the sidewalks!

China will be badly affected by the economic downturn. Moreso in the import/export areas than in agriculture or internal commerce. Though they use computers, they aren't used as extensively as the West or modern Europe. They surprizingly ulitilize more people to do things by hand (helps keep the masses employed) and computers have been too expensive for small businesses to buy and use. Commerce by the people is still mostly done with cash. Where they will be badly hit is in power, telecommunications and the exports of their products, mainly due to shipping and international commerce problems. This, of course, will result in massive unemployment and a severe recession.

China still retains a lot of the 'old world' ways in agriculture and product manufacturing (manual labor) so will recover internally very rapidly from the adverse effects of Y2K internationally.

I see some type of 'polite' purge of the old guard out of the highest seats of the Chinese government very soon. Those assistants and managers who actually run things will organize, elect one of the more competent leaders amongst themselves and send the older fellows into a specially created advisory council. The elderly, frail members will be grateful to bow out from the pressure gracefully and the public will be complacent as ever with the new leadership. Chinese government is so BIG, with so many members dealing with so many people, the common people there are overwhelmed with all things government. The transfer should be smooth. There will be some trouble from the military but the generals will be won over, promised more perks and expanded power.

The catalyst will come early in 2000. Three or four of Mao's old war-horses will die of old age within a two week period, leaving a power gap with which the younger members will see an opportunity to institute some changes for the entire body.

In 2001, China will take neighboring territories in one fell swoop. Hong Kong and the Macao take-overs have rekindled the flame of expansionism in the Chinese leadership. The advantages in commerce and power prove too much to resist and a fine diversion for public unrest with unemployment and borderline starvation. Especially while the USA and other NATO countries are in disarray over economic disruptions and the United Nations has become insolvent and ineffective. Self-preservation in the USA and most everywhere else, along with a firm reluctance by uneffected countries to get involved in foreign military disputes, provides an opportunity for China's advancement.

The World Bank, the IMF, NATO and all the other world bodies will register their protest and impose sanctions and sabber rattle, but China will thumb their nose at them and carry on with their intregration. (see Wars)

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