I see an unbelievable quantity of regional and religious conflict coming very soon in the Middle East. Extremists will be one of the catalyst which pits the 'old ways' leaders against those who've embraced modern technology and Western culture. Not only will the death toll be very high in 2002, due to civil wars but also for those who rely on the non-functioning desalination plants (sea water is de-salted and purified), estimated at around 21 million people, but food and oil production disruptions and shipping problems will grind the economy to a halt. I see two major pipeline spills which prove disasterous to the environment. The oil pools are purposely ignited to try to burn off the mess.

The Islamic leaders will seize their problems as a justification not to trust or rely on 'modern' practices or thought and call for Jihad (Holy War) against non-believers. Unfortunately, those who've kept to their old ways and maintained self-reliance seem to be the lest affected. The benefits that trade has had on the region over the many years will be ignored and the populace will be whipped up into a religious fever of hatred and fanaticism. Many in the West aren't aware that there are terrorist acts involving bombings and gunfire that slaughter innocents in numerous European and Mid-East countries almost every day presently by factions that have already declared Jihad.

The organizations for Jihad are already in place and well financed. All that is needed is something which sparks more of the populace to join into action. To die as a martyr for the cause puts one seated beside Mohammed for eternity. Only WW2 vets fighting the Japanese have witnessed an enemy willing to sacrifice themselves without thought to their own lives and actually seek out death. I expect terrorist acts in every country on the globe by Muslims who embrace the call for Jihad.

Not only will battle lines be drawn between religious thought bringing on great bloodshed amongst peoples but age-old hatreds between countries within the Mid-East region are going to flare-up. I'll cover this in the War Section.

As if that wasn't enough, the ruling Royal families and the 'privileged' class of the Middle East are in for something akin to the French Revolution. All the while, the United Nations and NATO will not intervene mostly due to their own country's hardships during oil disruptions and collapsing economies. Also the will of the people and the military leadership aren't there to send their valuable personnel and resources off to foreign lands to fight other people's battles. Especially to protect unworthy leaders in far-off lands when the military will be taxed at home in areas of civil unrest and public utility failures.

The sane and educated in the Middle East will flee if they can and the region will slip back into the Dark Ages much like Russia will be experiencing.

A new era of power alliances and economic isolationism amongst countries will swipe the globe within a few short months. The first question asked by leaders when asked to join in any international effort will be, "What's in it for us?"

Back To The Future

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