Bill Gates & Microsoft - Near Future

Date: October.23.1999







Bill Gates

Bill Gates will remain the wealthiest person in the world until his death. He will distance himself from the day-to-day operations of the Microsoft organization yet remain the figure-head and spokesman still providing direction and long-range goal objectives for the company. Bill is, and will continue to be, hounded by people trying to get at his wealth and will become even more security conscience. Expect sporadic news of security breaches, where 'odd' people have managed to approach him unexpectedly, which will eventually upset him and drive him to very infrequent public appearances. One incident will occur at a TV station within the next six months. A fellow will run onto the set and challenge Mr. Gates to solve the world hunger problem by giving his wealth away to the needy. Although the incident will not be live, the tape will be on the news programs. Gates will do broadcasts later from an unknown location, built by him, to fill his public spokesman's role.

Bill will become more benevolent with his money and have an elite staff who's job it is is to seek out worthy causes for him to donate to. He will create more foundations to help various under-privileged, under-funded projects, some of which won't be known to the public. One will be drug abuse rehabilitation.

Bill has been feeling slightly hunted and haunted by the media and the 'nuts' trying to get a piece of him. Although wealth accumulation as a measure of success, was important to him before, the focus on materialism has been replaced by creative energy on what are the most beneficiary projects for his money.

He wants to make communications on the planet wireless and easily accessible to everyone and continue to work with innovative companies that are working on new technologies. Governments, not the citizens, will put roadblocks in his path. Communications freedom is something a good number of federal governments will not embrace for a few more years. They will see it as an attack on their hold and power on the populace.

There will be a TV program which Bill will try to keep from airing which shows his homes, his ship, and his offices and speaks of some of the security precautions whenever, or where ever he travels. He will bring the case up to the Supreme Court as a case of invasion of privacy and argue it threatens his safety. The program will not be aired but excerpts will be shown as news items as the case progresses.

Bill Gates has the media tag-line of "the worlds wealthiest man", but does have tremendous integrity and character. Both assets to Microsoft and a relief to world governments (explanation below).

Microsoft

The company will not have much success at first with the launch of Windows 2000. Migration from Windows 95 or 98 by client companies will go slowly in the beginning mostly because of the problems by most organizations with the Y2K millennium computer problem. Microsoft will be the effect of the 'upgrade freeze' put on IT departments. Companies will be wrestling with the programs they have working and abandon many programs which are cost prohibitive to fix. Eventually, a lot of surviving companies will have to install all new programming, so Windows 2000, after numerous revisions and added features which make it even more attractive to their clients. The stock will fall next year but make an astounding come-back in late 2000 and 2001.

Microsoft will have to grant an amnesty to countries using pirated Microsoft software in conjunction with reduced licensing fees to assist the world with their problems. Other software companies will do the same. Expect un-president growth in the technology sector.

I expect nothing much coming out of the present court case against Microsoft by the United States Justice department. Probably a slap on the wrist, with a fine of a couple of billion dollars to feather the US Treasury, but it is actually a prelude to breaking up the Microsoft organization. Microsoft's wealth and the individual wealth of Gates and the executives, have world federal governments concerned since they collectively have more liquid funds then the entire Gross National Product of most countries. Gates integrity and social conscience is all that keeps governments from moving toward breaking up and making public the various divisions much like they did with AT & T a few years ago. Governments tend to think money is power and see Microsoft's wealth as a threat. Plus they don't understand a lot of the new technologies that will surface soon so will be afraid it will empower their citizens before they understand the changes and their effects on their power base. (see the Technology section for more).


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