Check for confounding factors --separate the variables.
.
.
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Common Fallacies of logic and rhetoric:
- Ad hominem - attacking the arguer and not the
argument.
- Argument from "authority".
- Argument from adverse consequences (putting pressure on the
decision maker by pointing out dire consequences of an
"unfavorable" decision).
- Appeal to ignorance (absence of evidence is not evidence of
absence).
- Special pleading (typically referring to god's will).
- Begging the question (assuming an answer in the way the
question is phrased).
- Observational selection (A subconscious bias toward counting the hits and forgetting the misses).
- Statistics of small numbers (such as drawing conclusions
from inadequate sample sizes (--altho a test that achieves statistical relevance in a small number does show validity).
- Misunderstanding the nature of statistics (President
Eisenhower expressing astonishment on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below-average intelligence!)
- Inconsistency (e.g. military expenditures based on worst
case scenarios but scientific projections on environmental
dangers thriftily ignored because they are not "proved").
- Non sequitur - "it does not follow" - the logic falls
down. See next...
- Post hoc, ergo propter hoc - "It happened after, so it
was caused by" - confusion of cause and effect. ("Correlation does not imply causation")
- Meaningless question ("What happens when an irresistible
force meets an immovable object?")
- Excluded middle - considering only the two extremes in a
range of possibilities (making the "other side" look worse than
it really is).
- Short-term v. long-term - a subset of Excluded Middle ("Why
pursue fundamental science when we have so huge a budget
deficit?").
- Slippery slope --a subset of Excluded Middle-- unwarranted
extrapolation of the effects (give an inch and they will take a
mile).
- Confusion of correlation and causation.
- Straw man --caricaturing (or stereotyping) a position to make it easier to attack.
- Suppressed evidence or half-truths.
- Weasel words - for example, use of euphemisms for war such
as "police action" to get around limitations on Presidential
powers. "An important art of politicians is to find new names
for institutions which under old names have become odious to the
public."
. . . . Above all --read the book!
JKH: To search for spiritual and metaphysical truth is a loser's game. The first two terms are of opinion, the third suggests that only one opinion is correct. Furthermore, the first two seek an answer in an area that can have no concrete facts, therefore no "truth". Cul-de-sac. Double-bind. Schizophrenogenic!
"Hootmagundy", of the Yahoo Skeptics Club, on how to do "cold-reading" & convince people you can mind-read:
It's chiefly a matter of how you frame your patter with your target audience. Basically, you toss out general guesses, and then make them less general and more specific as you zero in on one of the more responsive, info giving audience members.
. . "I sense that someone here has lost a loved one recently, yes?" (Somebody will have lost a loved one 'recently', a vague term which could mean ten minutes ot ten months. When someone responds 'yes!', you zero in on him/her)
. . "I am SO sorry, it was painful for you, yes?"
(Well duh. This is ingraciating butt-kissing for obvious reasons).
. . "I sense that it was some sort of problem with the head..(hesitate just a second, if no 'hit' on head, go immediately to..), "No! The chest area! Yes, the chest area (audience member is nodding enthusiastically, starting to cry), the heart gave out, yes? I have it now. It was the heart..." And so on.
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