THE DRAKE EQUATION
THE DRAKE EQUATION
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Calculating the probablity of ET life.
The Drake Equation was proposed by Frank Drake at the first SETI meeting in 1961. It reads:

N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fi × fc × L

Where:
N = The number of communicative civilizations.
The number of civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy whose radio emissions are detectable.
. . R* = The rate of formation of suitable stars.
The rate of formation of stars with a large enough "habitable zone" and long enough lifetime to be suitable for the development of intelligent life.
. . fp = The fraction of those stars with planets.
The fraction of sun-like stars with planets is currently unknown, but evidence indicates that planetary systems may be common for stars like the sun.
. . ne = The number of "Earths" per planetary system.
All stars have a habitable zone where a planet would be able to maintain a temperature that would allow liquid water. A planet in the habitable zone could have the basic conditions for life as we know it.
. . fl = The fraction of those planets where life develops.
Although a planet orbits in the habitable zone of a suitable star, other factors are necessary for life to arise. Thus, only a fraction of suitable planets will actually develop life.
. . fi = The fraction life sites where intelligence develops.
Life on Earth began over 3.5 billion years ago. Intelligence took a long time to develop. On other life- bearing planets it may happen faster, it may take longer, or it may not develop at all. For more information, please visit Dr. William Calvin's "The Drake Equation's fi".
. . fc = The fraction of planets where technology develops The fraction of planets with intelligent life that develop technological civilizations, i.e., technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
. . L = The "Lifetime" of communicating civilizations. The length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.

More briefly:

N- is the no. of communicative civilizations in the galaxy
N(s)- the rate of formation of suitable stars in the galaxy
f(p)- the fraction of stars that have planetary systems
n(e)- no. of planets in each system that are suitable for life
f(l)- the no. of these planets where intelligence arises
f(c)-the fraction of these planets on which technical civilizations capable of communicating arises
f(L)-the fraction of planetary lifetime during which civilization exists.

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from MKAKU.ORG :
. . From sub-atomic particles to the large-scale structure of the universe goes through a staggering 43 orders of magnitude.
Specifically, we can rank civilizations by their energy consumption, using the following principles:

1) The laws of thermodynamics. Even an advanced civilization is bound by the laws of thermodynamics, especially the Second Law, and can hence be ranked by the energy at their disposal.
. . 2) The laws of stable matter. Baryonic matter (e.g. based on protons and neutrons) tends to clump into three large groupings: planets, stars and galaxies. (This is a well-defined by-product of stellar and galactic evolution, thermonuclear fusion, etc.) Thus, their energy will also be based on three distinct types, and this places upper limits on their rate of energy consumption.
. . 3) The laws of planetary evolution. Any advanced civilization must grow in energy consumption faster than the frequency of life-threatening catastrophes (e.g. meteor impacts, ice ages, supernovas, etc.). If they grow any slower, they are doomed to extinction. This places mathematical lower limits on the rate of growth of these civilizations.

The Borg are a Type III civilization which absorbs lower Type II civilizations.
The fabled Planck energy: 10^19 billion electron volts. This energy is a quadrillion times larger than our most powerful atom smasher. This energy, as fantastic as it may seem, is (by definition) within the range of a Type II or III civilization. The Planck energy only occurs at the center of black holes and the instant of the Big Bang.
AM: So is there is kind of inevitable end for intelligent life, no matter how advanced the particular civilization may become?
MK: Astronomer John Barrows of the University of Sussex writes, "Suppose that we extend the classification upwards. Members of these hypothetical civilizations of Type IV, V, VI, ... and so on, would be able to manipulate the structures in the universe on larger and larger scales, encompassing groups of galaxies, clusters, and superclusters of galaxies." Civilizations beyond Type III may have enough energy to escape our dying universe via holes in space.
. . Lastly, physicist Alan Guth of MIT, one of the originators of the inflationary universe theory, has even computed the energy necessary to create a baby universe in the laboratory (the temperature is 1,000 trillion degrees, which is within the range of these hypothetical civilizations).
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