NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS SUPPLY
Various clips, mostly September, 2000.
Colin Campbell says that natural gas production is best described as a "plateau" followed by a "cliff" due to the high mobility and recovery of gas. Whereas oil declines slowly as it moves through the porespace of the rocks under declining pressure, the decline of gas is a cliff --not a slope. Thus, the gas market gives no warning of the cliff because it is no more expensive to produce the last cubic foot than the first. Global natural gas production is expected to "cliff" sometime between 2010 and 2020.
. . The gas production curve lags behind oil by about 10 years, with experts predicting the peak between 2020 and 2030 [contrast w 2010-20 above]. North American production is expected to peak according to some studies as early as 2007, just at the time as much of the power grid in the region has changed over to gas as the power source.
. According to a 1999 study by the National Petroleum Council, in order to meet projected demand in 2015, drilling would need to double and be expanded into protected federal land and offshore areas. The cost in drilling, supply development and pipeline construction is expected to be $658 billion with an additional $128 billion in upgrades.
Canada currently provides about 13% of the US gas supply and is supposed to increase its exports enough to provide 17% by 2005. It is hoped that Canadian imports will rise from 3 trillion cubic feet in 1998 to 4 tcf in 2007. But a March 2000 study by Canadian industry and government geoscientists casts doubts on the ability of Canada to meet US demands for gas much longer:
. . "Based on 1993 reserves data, Canada's total marketable endowment of conventional natural gas resources was estimated at 373 Tcf by the CGPC in 1997. Removing the gas consumed through 1998, about 250 Tcf of conventional marketable gas resources remain to be exploited in all of Canada."
There were 413 active storage fields in the United States during 1999. Natural gas is injected into these fields generally during April thorough October and withdrawn during November through March. The volume of gas available for withdrawal ranges from near 3 Tcf at the end of September to under 1 Tcf at the end of March. The single largest source of *synthetic gas is the Great Plains Synfuels Plant in Beulah, North Dakota, which, in 2000, produced 49 Bcf of gas from coal.
U.S. Total Natural Gas Production:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/ng_enp_sum_nus_m_d.htm
June 28, 2001
The total world LNG ship fleet, including new orders, as of May 30, 2001, stood at 163 ships or 19,070,161 cu m, of which 26% is on order.
. . Gas is loaded into the ship's pre-chilled cargo tanks as a refrigerated liquid (at -256° F) at atmospheric pressure via a closed system from insulated storage tanks at the Liquefaction Plant. During the voyage to the Regasification Plant, a small amount of LNG is allowed to evaporate and this is used to fuel the ship's boilers that provide steam for the ship's steam turbine engines.
. . 72% of the remaining reserves located in the Middle-East and Russia. "Currently, the US has approximately 600,000 oil wells in operation. Nearly 500,000 of those wells produce less than three barrels a day." Moreover, the CEOs of Agip (Italian oil company) and Arco have both published estimates of a global oil peak in 2005.
Heat-pumps: ...the school derives its heat from 480 deep wells. Cold water mixed with antifreeze is circulated down 180-foot wells, where the temperature year-round is about 50 degrees. It handles 376,000 square feet. The holes are 450 feet deep --232 of them, with 47 miles of water pipe. The holes were backfilled with a clay-like compound that's a good conductor of heat.
. . Owners of a 2,400 sf country home with a GeoHeatPump system in Bismarck, ND, report an average utility bill of $25.84 per month. The system cost $10,000 to install, which is about $3,500 more than a conventional system. But he was able to get a loan at 5 percent from his local utility company, and it turned out the $144 monthly payments were less than what they would have paid in heating bills with a conventional system. 'It paid for itself in three years', he said.
Trinity Episcopal Cathedral in Cleveland is installing the city's largest geothermal heating and cooling system. Once installed, the new system is expected to cut electricity consumption by more than half. Wells go 300 feet below the cathedral's parking lot.
. . At $1.7 million, the system cost about $350,000 more to install than a conventional heating and cooling system. But it will cut electricity costs from $78,700 to $35,500 in its first year of operation, according to the engineering firm that designed the system. With maintenance costs figured in, the geothermal system will pay for itself in 8½ years.
Geothermal power is a relatively mature source with a worldwide capacity of almost 8 GW at the end of 2000.
The amount of power that solar cells can generate increases by about 20% if the solar cells are mounted on a system that tracks the sun as it moves across the sky.
. . Wind turbines. The cost of a kilowatt-hour has dropped by a factor of ten in the last 20 years. A number of studies have shown that about 1 to 2 birds per turbine die each year. Towers should be at least 20 meters tall to be effective, and most suburban zoning laws prohibit structures taller than 11 meters (35 feet).
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