Preliminary study shows they will face a crunch on
                 welfare systems because of shrinking and ageing
                 populations

                 UNITED NATIONS -- Europe and Japan may have to
                 follow the example of North America and Australia and
                 encourage large-scale immigration to solve the problems
                 of their shrinking, ageing populations, UN officials have
                 said.

                 "A major change is occurring in geopolitics," said Mr
                 Joseph Chamie, director of the United Nations
                 Population Division.

                 "And it's not happening in 200 years, it's happening now.
                 Population trends and demographic changes are bringing
                 about what I call the New International Population
                 Order."

                 Forecasts released by the UN on Oct 12 -- the day
                 chosen to mark the birth of the six billionth human being
                 -- showed the world's total population rising to 8.9
                 billion by 2050.

                 At the same time, the populations of most developed
                 countries will fall, in some cases dramatically.

                 But they too will see their populations age, putting ever
                 greater strains on welfare systems.

                 "In Germany, there are about 4.5 workers supporting
                 each retiree," Mr Chamie said.

                 "In 2050 the ratio will be two-to-one."

                 Similar percentages hold true for most European
                 countries as well as Japan.

                 But in the US, a ratio of three workers to one retiree is
                 forecast as the population grows from 276.2 million to
                 349.3 million, largely thanks to continuing immigration.

                 The UN is mid-way through a study which looks at
                 various scenarios for immigration in eight countries:
                 Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, South
                 Korea and the US. The study is due out in March.

                 Mr Chamie said on Wednesday that preliminary results
                 showed that if Germany wanted to keep its population
                 constant, it would have to accept 18 million immigrants
                 over the next 50 years.

                 About 25 million immigrants would be needed to keep
                 the size of the labour force constant, he said.

                 But if Germany wanted to maintain the current ratio of
                 people of working age to retirees, it would need 188
                 million immigrants, he said.

                 Mr Chamie said this huge figure is due to the fact that
                 the first immigrants would themselves retire, joining the
                 pool of those requiring support. This would create a
                 demand for more younger immigrants, and on and on the
                 cycle will continue. -- AFP

          Adapted from The Straits Times, 8 Jan 2000.