I have been computing ratings for high school and college football for 10 years. I have tinkered with various formulas to come up with an objective rating system which can help explain why games go the way they do. Although I have been know to place a wager or two on various animals such as dogs and horses, these ratings are most certainly NOT for gambling purposes. In fact, if you desire to bet on high school football, you need to go to gamblers annonymous worse than I could ever explain.
The formula that these ratings are derived on is a combination of the RPI used to help choose the NCAA basketball tournament field and a consideration of victory margins. For those of you who wish to replicate these rankings, I sum the team's own record, their opponent's records and their opponent's opponents records. Then I multipy that sum by 45, the mercy rule level in the small school (8 man) classes. In eleven man football, games played against Class B schools are discounted by 15%. Games played against class C1 and C2 schools are discounted 30%. In 8 man football, I do not discount because the differnces in school size tends to be insignificant. (they're all real small.) I then multiply this product by 3, and add in the teams average victory margin (or deficit). This is to give three times the weight to schedule strength as victory margin. Finally, I divide by 3, which usually results in the class A and 8 man champions having ratings near 100. The formula gives you a chance to compare teams across classes. I publish all 11 man and all 8 man ratings to make those comparisons.
The season is over. The computer ratings ended with 5 of the 6 state champions on top. Of course, the one that differs is Class A. Obviously, if I were rating the teams in a statewide paper, I would put Lincoln SE over Millard North in the final ratings. Beyond that, there would be few other changes necessary. I'd probably reorder Westside, Central and Creighton Prep as 8, 9, and 10 respectively in class A. Creighton Prep did give both Millard North and Lincoln SE their toughest test before the finals, but it's hard to ignore the overall 6-5 record, and the losses to Westside and Central in the same rating area. Millard South remained ahead of SE on the computer due to strength of schedule consdierations. Specifically, Lincoln SE played Lincoln SW, while Millard North did not. This has been another interesting year in Nebraska High School Football. Look for me again next year!
I am extremely interested in any comments you have on these ratings. Thank you for looking!
A B C1 C2 D1 D2 All 8 Man All 11 Man 2002 Rankings. Ratings for prior years.