Greg Maddux In The News 1997
Greg Maddux In The News 1997
October 1, 1997 By Bill James in ESPNet:
James: It's Maddux, for now
At this point in their careers, the Atlanta Braves' Greg Maddux would have to be
considered the top pitcher of his generation, over Roger Clemens, said baseball
author Bill James.
But in a chat session with ESPN SportsZone users, James also left room to
change his mind if the Toronto Blue Jays hurler continues to have seasons like his most recent, when he won the Triple Crown of pitching.
If you missed his Oct. 1 chat as part of this week's Showdown topic -- Who's the top pitcher of this era? -- below is an edited transcript.
Ike Farrell: Hey Bill, looking forward to your next book. When all is said and done, where do you think Maddux and Clemens will rank among the all-time greats?
Bill James: No one in history has been more consistently at the top of baseball than Maddux, but he's done that for 7-8 years. He has to do it for longer than that to rank with Walter Johnson, Tom Seaver and Grover Cleveland (Pete) Alexander.
I think Clemens has a 50-50 shot at 300 wins, and an equal shot at ranking second on the all-time strikeout list. Those things will put him way up on the ladder, but you can't assume that he'll be there.
Derek: Roger has pitched on some really less than average Red Sox teams. In November, Roger should be picking up his (fourth) Cy Young, and how about those stats in '90 -- 21-6, 1.93 ERA, 49 ER, 4 SHO. It was too bad Bob Welch won 27 games that year! Maddux, meanwhile, has been on some "dynasty" Braves teams. He is an awesome pitcher, no doubt, but the nod goes to Rocket.
Bill James: There's a difference in the quality of the teams, I agree. Clemens not only pitched for lesser teams, but also had a three-year period when that team just didn't score for him. Clemens went through a period of several years when the Sox just didn't score when he pitched.
Jack Zentner: Its definitely a tough call to decide whether Greg Maddux or Roger Clemens is the best pitcher of his era. I think the biggest reason is because they're have two completely distinct and different pitching styles. Maddux -- amazing control. Clemens -- a cannon for an arm. Ultimately, if I were a manager I think I would rather have Maddux because not only is he a very consistent pictcher but he also has never landed on the disabled list and most likely won't.
Bill James: The power pitchers are less prone to end up on the DL than control pitchers, not the other way around. Clemens has bounced off the DL a couple times, but he has been healthy most of the time. But you're right on something -- Clemens is like Bob Gibson or Tom Seaver or other guys we've seen before. Maddux is unique. There's never really been a guy who's pitched the way he does at the level he does -- except for Orel Hershiser, but even he wasn't consistent.
Who's the premier pitcher of this era? I suppose that you have to pick Maddux, but I could change my mind in another two months. It's close and there's really no way of saying until their careers are over.
Dave: Can you place Randy Johnson in a historical perspective? His late start and relatively low win total, and injury history, don't bode well for lifetime wins. Was there a dominant lefty big-game pitcher prior to him that matches up with him, and is that guy in the Hall of Fame?
Bill James: The historical match was Dazzy Vance. He was a righthander (for Brooklyn in the 1920s and '30s) who had zero career wins at age 30 and ended up in the Hall of Fame. He was incredibly wild; he was pitching in the minors and did not find his control until he was 30.
It's early to say Johnson's going to go down as one of the greats, but when he's healthy he's as good as you'll ever see.
Thomas Cassidy: I have to say its a toss-up at this point. But Derek makes a good point about Roger's 1990 season: a 1.93 ERA pitching at Fenway, in the era of the designated hitter? Extraordinary. A feat the equal of or greater than Maddux's relative ERAs in 1994 (1.56) and 1995 (1.63).
Bill James: That's why we look at things like relative ERA rather than raw ERA. Designated hitters drive up the earned run average.
That's an excellent point about Clemens, who was equally amazing in 1992 (18-11, 2.41 ERA) but didn't win the Cy Young.
Thomas in Texas: Clemens' postseasons have not been Rocket-quality. Tired from overuse? Mythical "choking"? Or just saddled with typical more-lucky-than-good Boston teams?
Bill James: I think he has been worked to death in some seasons, a lot of which was his own doing. This was one of those seasons; he pitched well in September but not as well as he did early in the year. The problem is, he always wants to pitch.
Casey: I think if you would have put Maddux in the AL with all those free swingers, he could have won six or seven Cy Young awards by now, and probably be a lot closer in strikeouts to Clemens than he is now.
Bill James: The comment is biased and ill-informed. Strikeout rates are always higher in the NL because of the pitchers batting. All that comment really proves is that you're a National League fan.
Honey Fitz: Any thoughts on whether the Blue Jays will continue to get their money's worth? Clemens won't have that "I hate (Boston GM Dan) Duquette" thing next year unless he has mental problems.
Bill James: Clemens has pitched well every year of his career. His record doesn't show it for a couple years in Boston, but he was pitching great anyway. Of course he'll pitch well; he always has.
Jim Buckley: But for an inning or two by Steve Ontiveros, Clemens would have won the AL ERA title in 1994 (2.85 ERA), but because of the strike and the poor record of the Red Sox, no one noticed. I thought Boston fans and writers were grossly unfair in their analysis of Clemens his last few years in Boston.
Bill James: Amen!
Michael: I think that Maddux is the definitely the smartest pitcher in
this era. What do you think?
Bill James: He's a very smart pitcher. I don't know if you ever noticed this, but almost all top pitchers are smart. If you look at the list of pitchers who won more than 250 games since World War II, 80 percent of them are real bright guys. Tommy John and Robin Roberts and Warren Spahn and Tom Seaver -- these are just very bright guys. That is the identifying characteristic of 250-game winners. There are lots of guys with 95-MPH fastballs and retire with 35 career wins. The difference between them and the Madduxes and Clemens is the the ability to figure out what to do with what they've got.
James: Maddux is often thought of a "nerd" by baseball players, media, and even fans. Is this an accurate depiction, or is it merely because he wears glasses? Do you think there are other players as intelligent as Greg who don't have his reputation?
Bill James: His glasses, his narrow shoulders and his Orel Hershiser
appearance. That has to do more with trivial stuff than anything else.
Randy Johnson, for instance, doesn't look it but he is a bright guy. When I watch him being interviewed, I'm always struck by the foundation there. He's never confused with what he's doing. Randy is as fascinating a player as I've seen. You look at him the first time and you think he's the ugliest guy who you've ever seen; but he's incredibily graceful, more graceful than any basketball I've ever seen. Other times he says something stupid, and then other times he is absolutely brilliant. He certainly pitches brilliantly.
Sid Fernandez is like that. No one will tell you he's smart but he's an incredibly smart pitcher.
BarryW: Did you see the baseball writers' poll this summer, where they rated the all-time greats at each position? Nolan Ryan rated as one of the top five righties ever, and Seaver didn't. Is it just me, or is that insane? Also, it made me wonder if you had plans to update the Historical Abstract.
Bill James: My next book will be an update of Historical Abstract, and thanks for asking.
Rating Ryan ahead of Seaver is wacko.
Another sort-of parallel to Randy Johnson, by the way, is (former Baltimore and Houston pitcher) Mike Cuellar. Cuellar didn't have Johnson's fastball, but he was a hard-throwing lefty who struggled until he was about 30 and then had about 10 really good years.
Mike McCann: Where would (early-century pitcher) Christy Mathewson fit in in todays game?
Bill James: Mathewson was a Maddux type.
Tom Nissley: One thing I've learned from your books is that most pitchers have a mid-career crises to deal with, when their steam runs out a little and they have to learn how to pitch with different tools. Do you think Maddux has reached such a crisis point? Do you think Roger has passed his?
Bill James: I definitely think Roger has passed his. I don't think Maddux has reached his yet.
Thomas in Texas: Which was the last pair of pitchers THIS good? Tom Seaver and Steve Carlton? Unprecedented?
Bill James: In the 1960s we had (the Los Angeles Dodgers') Sandy Koufax and (San Francisco Giants') Juan Marichal, both in the same league. Plus, Carlton and Seaver won 300 games apiece -- these guys haven't done that yet.
Hansoo: Which pitcher had the most incredible single season, in your
opinion?
Bill James: I'll give you five:
Joe Wood, 1912
Dazzy Vance, 1924
Lefty Grove, 1931
Sandy Koufax, 1965
Steve Carlton, 1972
Clemens' year was good but it's too soon after the season to evaluate it. I haven't look at it closely enough.
Moderator: Bill had to leave the room -- there's some baseball to watch. Thanks for all your questions and have a good night. Check back on Friday for the Showdown verdict on who deserves to be called the best pitcher of this era.
October 1, 1997 by Rob Neyer in ESPNet:
Consistency gives Maddux nod
By Rob Neyer
ESPN SportsZone
Maddux and Clemens. It's like comparing Renoir and Degas, Pavarotti and Domingo, Chamberlain and Russell. Or -- more to the subject at hand -- Seaver and Carlton.
Being a baseball fan can be tough these days, but we should all consider ourselves blessed by the simultaneous presence of Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens, arguably two of the 10 greatest pitchers in the long history of the game.
In terms of winning percentage, Maddux and Clemens are nearly dead ringers. Overall, Maddux is 184-108 (.630) in his career. Clemens is even better, at 213-118 (.644).
Maddux has been brilliant this season, but Clemens has been even better, posting his best numbers in a career of great numbers. How good has the Rocket been? Well, the difference between his 1997 ERA (2.05) and the league ERA (4.56) was 2.51, the third highest this century.
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PITCHING DUEL |
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Career statistics in selected categories for Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens: |
|
Category |
Maddux |
Clemens |
|
Years |
12 |
14 |
|
Record |
184-108 |
213-118 |
|
Shutouts |
22 |
34 |
|
ERA |
2.81 |
2.97 |
|
Strikeouts |
1,820 |
2,882 |
|
Walks |
609 |
924 |
|
Cy Youngs |
4 |
3 |
The only two higher? Believe it or not, they were 2.65 and 2.55, and they both were posted by Greg Maddux, in 1994 and '95.
That two-season run is impressive enough, but also points to a greater attribute . Maddux's incredible, astrounding, almost magical consistency. In 1994, Maddux became the first pitcher ever to win three straight Cy Young Awards. A year later, he became the first pitcher to win not only four straight, but four at all. And after a year off, it looks like he might win another in 1997.
Clemens, meanwhile, has had his ups and downs, or at least his ups and a pair of downs. In 1993 he went 11-14, with a 4.46 ERA. After a typical Clemens-esque 1994 campaign (2.85 ERA), he suffered a merely average season in 1995 (4.18 ERA). The point being, not that Clemens isn't one of the great pitchers of all time, but that he does occasionally pitch like a mere mortal.
Maddux hasn't pitched like a mortal in about a decade. He's a true baseball immortal, in the mold of Christy Mathewson and Walter Johnson. A major leaguer for 12 seasons now, Maddux has never, never ever been on the disabled list. In fact, work just seems to make him stronger. You look at his record, and all you can do is shake your head in wonderment. In each of the last 10 seasons, Maddux has topped 200 innings. Beginning in 1991, he pitched more innings than any National League pitcher for five straight seasons.
March 27, 1997 by David Schoenfield in ESPNet:
Masterful Mr. Maddux
By David Schoenfield
ESPNET SportsZone
Celebrate Greg Maddux.
You are witnessing one of the most dominating pitchers of all time.
He doesn't possess the blazing fastball of Nolan Ryan, the intimidating glare of Roger Clemens, the fist-pumping victory celebration of Dennis Eckersley.
He doesn't make TV commercials, write books or pose for magazine covers. The spotlight? The only one he cares about is the center of the baseball diamond.
He is precision on the mound, throwing the ball exactly where he desires: he walked only 17 batters unintentionally in 35 starts last season.
Bob Klapisch sums up Greg Maddux perfectly: "Understand his genius."
The past five years of Maddux's career -- from 1992 through last season -- might rank as the greatest five-year stretch a pitcher has ever compiled. Put him alongside the top pitchers in history -- Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Sandy Koufax -- and Maddux fits right in (see graphic, below).
Maddux has compiled a 90-40 record (101-42 if adjusted for the strike) over that time with a 2.13 ERA. How impressive is the ERA? Only two pitchers (Kevin Brown in 1996 and Billy Swift in 1992) have beat that mark in one season.
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THE BEST
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Greg Maddux and four other all-time greats (*indicates led league): |
| Greg Maddux |
| Year |
W-L |
ERA |
League
ERA |
| 1992 |
20*-11 |
2.18 |
3.50 |
| 1993 |
20-10 |
2.36* |
4.04 |
| 1994 |
16*-6 |
1.56* |
4.21 |
| 1995 |
19*-2 |
1.63* |
4.18 |
| 1996 |
15-11 |
2.72 |
4.22 |
| Totals |
90-40 |
2.13 |
|
| Roger Clemens |
| Year |
W-L |
ERA |
League
ERA |
| 1986 |
24*-4 |
2.48* |
4.18 |
| 1987 |
20*-9 |
2.97 |
4.46 |
| 1988 |
18-12 |
2.93 |
3.97 |
| 1989 |
17-11 |
3.13 |
3.88 |
| 1990 |
21-6 |
1.93* |
3.91 |
| Totals |
100-42 |
2.71 |
|
| Sandy Koufax |
| Year |
W-L |
ERA |
League
ERA |
| 1962 |
14-7 |
2.54* |
3.94 |
| 1963 |
25*-5 |
1.88* |
3.29 |
| 1964 |
19-5 |
1.74* |
3.54 |
| 1965 |
26*-8 |
2.04* |
3.54 |
| 1966 |
27*-9 |
1.73* |
3.61 |
| Totals |
111-34 |
1.95 |
|
| Lefty Grove |
| Year |
W-L |
ERA |
League
ERA |
| 1928 |
24*-8 |
2.58 |
4.04 |
| 1929 |
20-6 |
2.81* |
4.24 |
| 1930 |
28*-5 |
2.54* |
4.65 |
| 1931 |
31*-4 |
2.06* |
4.38 |
| 1932 |
25-10 |
2.84* |
4.48 |
| Totals |
128-33 |
2.56 |
|
| Walter Johnson |
| Year |
W-L |
ERA |
League
ERA |
| 1912 |
33-12 |
1.39* |
3.34 |
| 1913 |
36*-7 |
1.14* |
2.93 |
| 1914 |
28*-18 |
1.72 |
2.73 |
| 1915 |
27*-13 |
1.55 |
2.75 |
| 1916 |
25*-20 |
1.90 |
2.82 |
| Totals |
149-70 |
2.13 |
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Sure, the slim right-hander slipped a bit last year -- heck, he dropped all the way to second in ERA in the National League as his mark rose to an unsightly 2.72 -- but consider this list of achievements in the past half-decade: four consecutive Cy Young Awards, three ERA crowns, three times leading the league in victories, four times leading in innings pitched, three times compiling the most complete games, twice leading in shutouts.
Historically, his most impressive feat has been the microscopic, mind-boggling ERAs. Johnson, Grove and Koufax all won more games in their peak five seasons: Johnson 149, Grove 128 and Koufax 111. But after adjusting for era -- Maddux must toil in this time of homers and runs -- Maddux matches and even surpasses them in ERA.
This is done by comparing Maddux's ERA to the league average by dividing the pitcher's ERA by the league ERA. This is called relative ERA. The lower, the better.
His 1.56 mark in 1994, when the league compiled a 4.21 ERA, works out to a relative ERA of .371 -- Maddux's ERA was 37 percent of the league mark. His 1.63 total the next year -- when the league was at 4.18 -- works out to .390.
Walter Johnson, the second-winningest pitcher of all time, blew away American League opponents for the Washington Senators from 1912-1916. His 1913 year, when he went 36-7 with a 1.14 ERA, is perhaps the best ever for a pitcher.
Johnson's ERA was never higher than 1.90 in those five years. But his two best relative ERAs were almost identical to Maddux: .389 and .416.
Sandy Koufax dominated the National League for the Dodgers from 1962-1966, when arthritis forced his early retirement during the prime of his career. He led the league in ERA all five seasons, three times in wins and three times in strikeouts (something Maddux has never done).
Koufax compiled a win-loss mark of 111-34, pretty close to Maddux's adjusted total of 101-42. His composite ERA of 1.95 edges Maddux's 2.13.
But consider this: Koufax's best relative ERA was .479 in 1966, when he had a 1.73 ERA compared to the league average of 3.61.
Koufax also benefited from a huge home-field advantage. Dodger Stadium in the mid-'60s, with its high mound and deep fences, was one of the best places ever for a pitcher to earn a living.
Relative ERA: pitcher's ERA divided by league ERA. By normalizing all league ERAs on a scale of 1.00, pitchers' ERAs across different seasons can be adjusted and compared directly to each other. The lower on the scale, the better.
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It's funny. People always think a young, erratic Sandy Koufax turned his career around in 1962. After compiling ERAs of 4.48, 4.05, 3.91 and 3.52 from '58-'61, he suddenly led the league the final five years of his career.
But what really happened is that in 1962 the Dodgers moved from the L.A. Coliseum to Dodger Stadium and, as Bill James once wrote, "Koufax became Koufax."
Check out his road and home ERAs from 1960-1963:
| Year |
Road |
Home |
| 1960 |
3.00 |
5.27 |
| 1961 |
2.78 |
4.29 |
| 1962 |
3.53 |
1.75 |
| 1963 |
2.31 |
1.38 |
Koufax's road ERAs don't change a whole lot -- but, boy, did he love Walter O'Malley's new ballpark. After going 17-22 with a 4.46 ERA in four seasons at the Coliseum, he went 57-15 with a 1.37 ERA his five years at Dodger Stadium.
Maddux has not enjoyed the same advantage. His ERA at home the past five years is 2.12. On the road? 2.14.
Lefty Grove is perhaps the greatest pitcher of all time. He led his league in ERA a record nine times (nobody else has done it more than five), led his league in wins four times and in strikeouts for seven consecutive seasons.
He was at his best from 1928-1932, when he went 128-33 with a 2.56 ERA. Heck, in 1930 -- before there were "closers" as today -- he led the league with 28 wins and with nine saves.
Grove's best relative ERAs were .474 and .546, not as good as Maddux's.
Have we witnessed the greatest stretch a pitcher ever had? Perhaps. Lefty Grove in Dodger Stadium in 1964 may have been unhittable. Walter Johnson averaged 30 wins and 359 innings during his stretch.
But Maddux is right there as one of the best ever.
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor for ESPNET SportsZone.
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