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What if...One of the exciting bits of history and wargaming is the 'what if' scenario. Now over many years I have fought many games and campaigns in many periods based on 'what if' scenarios. Many of these are based on leaders making different decisions, what if Hitler had invaded England or not invaded Russia or had reinforced Rommel in Africa? What if Stalin had invaded West Germany during the cold war? The only trouble with that style of scenario is that the leaders concerned were unlikely to make the different decision by the nature of their personality. But there are what if scenarios that will work and many of these are based on historic accidents. In 1931, a taxi in New York looking for late night fares was making its rounds. It was an icy dark night and as the taxi turned onto Fifth Avenue a short dumpy man stepped into the taxi's path. The taxi hit the man and he died later that night in hospital. The obituary that appeared in the Times next day spoke of Churchill's contributions to British politics in the Great War. The failure of the Dardanelles campaign was laid firmly on Churchill and the promise he had shown as a possible Tory leader was praised. At the end of the twentieth century very few American historians blamed the victory of the Nazis during the war of 1939-1947 on this obscure event. After all, history is entirely the result of great social movements and the actions of millions of people. The surrender of Great Britain in 1940 by the Prime Minister Lord Halifax was a reasoned and sensible recognition of the hopeless strategic position she found herself in. But the handing over of the Royal Navy to the Kregsmarine had been deeply critisied in the American Press. When the invasion of South America was launched by the combined Axis forces, the use of the Royal Navy enabled the Germans to guard the convoys that crossed the South Atlantic. The war between the American forces and the Nazis in South America that ended in 1947 still haunts the American public. If in 1940 Britain had had a more determined leader then may be this could have been different. |