Section : POLITICS
Country : ERITREA / ETHIOPIA
Although the governments in Asmara and Addis Ababa have been closely linked since their joint victory over the regime of ex-president Mengistu Haile Mariam, they have seen growing mutual dissension which Ethiopian prime minister Meles Zenawi went to Asmara discreetly for a day to debate with Eritrean head of state Issayas Afeworki at the beginning of September. The causes of this low-intensity political conflict are multiple and illustrate positions of State logic which are increasingly far apart. For Zenawi, the head of Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), creation of the nacfa, Eritrea's new currency, was a pretty rough way of giving Ethiopia reason to be unhappy with the parity of the Ethiopian birr: Addis Ababa is complaining of the different exchange rates (US$1 is worth 7.2 birrs in Asmara but only 5.6 birrs in Ethiopia) which allow the Eritreans to attract foreign currency. But this crack in the "Birr Zone" may turn out to be a case of the remedy being worse than the sickness: an independent n acfa is going to increase Eritrean autonomy and push the Addis Ababa authorities into assuming alone the charges of Ethiopia's debt (part of which is theoretically at least also owed by Eritrea). Eritrea's recent closure of Assab refinery has increased Ethiopia's costs of importing motor fuel although Eritrea counter-complains that since the closure, Addis Ababa has shifted some of its import traffic to the ports of Djibouti and Berbera. In another sector, Asmara wants to repatriate (perhaps because of growing tension along its frontier with Sudan) several thousands of its soldiers still serving in the EPRDF armed forces, whereas Meles says he still needs them, notably in south-eastern Ethiopia where in recent months fundamental Islamic guerrillas have stepped up the rhythm of their activities.
The latest pebble-in-the-shoe is the two countries' attitudes to Khartoum. In Asmara, tension is climbing: not a week passes without a fundamentalist commando sliding into the country from Sudan and laying landmines on the roads. Some have exploded in Akele Guzzai, less than 50 km from the Eritrean capital. In Ethiopia, much vaster and less troubled by fundamental Islamic skulduggery, the government is little disposed to riposte by supporting the Sudanese opposition, although in May and June, Eritrea did not hesitate to order its own troops into action against the Sudanese army. The Khartoum's regime, which has spotted this divergence of views, recently attempted to separate Ethiopia from Eritrea by offering to hand over to Addis Ababa a number of leaders of Ethiopian opposition organizations operating from Sudanese bases in exchange for the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops giving logistical support to units in Kurmuk and Queissan (Eastern Sudan) of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), headed by colonel John Garang. EPRDF's response was negative, but only after a noticeable hesitation which irritated Asmara.
Zenawi's visit to Eritrea seems to have ironed out much of the problems using arbitration which, as often in Ethiopian-Eritrean relations, leaned more often in favour of the smaller partner. In the short term, the sharpest reaction will be on support for the Sudanese opposition, particularly as SPLA forces in the south and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) forces in the north are preparing for military operations against the Sudanese army which might well benefit from direct Ethiopian-Eritrean support. This would be especially the case if peace negotiations on Sudan planned in Nairobi on October 28 produce nothing. Meanwhile, posters slapped up on Asmara walls in mid-September instructed all army veterans demobilized since 1995 to register by October 3, to permit their eventual recall to the colours.