Analysis for Northfield Park
March 28, 2001


 

Race #1
#5 HOGUE'S HAPPY BUCK Left nicely last week and secured the 2 hole trip. Then in the lane the driver decided to go right instead of left into the passing lane and never really had any room. Tonight we get a HUGE driver change and that will probably be enough to make this one a winner against this group. He has speed to get position and has done well at this level in the past.
#2 ROSITAS FILET Has been struggling since coming to Northfield, but tonight faces a much softer group and draws inside. She actually was pacing very strongly in the lane last week and that slight improvement may have been a sign of a general upswing. 3 races back she battled outside to a much faster 3/4's than these can go. Case only helps.
#6 SAND ROUNDER Was the best of the rest against a standout winner. That was this well bred colt's first start of the year and he may be better tonight. He is a maiden and most of these have already won a race and that is a slight disadvantage. Though he still must be considered on breeding and final 1/4 alone.


 

Race #2
#3 LASTING CAM Went a big mile last week battling 1st over the final 1/2 mile against a wire-to-wire winner. He never folded and was battling very gamely to the wire. Add to that a big driver change to Hawk and this one looks set for another big effort. Slight edge in here.
#4 ALBERT'S ANGEL Left and chased a standout winner last time (a horse that came back and beat better Monday) and was a nice even 2nd. He may use similar tactics tonight and look for an up-close trip. He beat this same level 4 back and in here is a gimmick must.
#1 SHIPS MUTINEY Is a bull-headed, hard to handle horse that is more trouble than he is worth. However, B. Miller is back up and his talents get the most out of this one. 2 weeks ago this one left and then came first over, bearing out badly on the final turn, and still was going well at the wire, narrowly missing. If Brett can relax this one early he can follow along for a piece of this one.


 

Race #3
#2 WYE OAK Left last week and was able to grab a 2-hole. As if that wasn't enough, this one pulled out of that 2-hole by the 1/2 mile marker and rolled to the top. He stayed clear and was urged minimally in a very easy win. He did all of that with his hind wraps flapping losely in the wind. Before that he was parked the mile and still went as fast as most of these ever go. Fromt he inside Pantaleano should have him on top and make it 2 in a row.
#1 COSMIC REVOLUTION Probably needed his last start since shipping back to Ohio and he was too far back to challenge anyway. He did trot evenly in the lane and tonight draws the rail. Add Case to the mix and that makes him a dangerous foe.
#3 SELF IMPOSED Was the favorite against the top 2 picks last week and was parked the mile. He was claimed out of that start and B. Miller opted for this one over the #1. He has fared well against better in recent weeks and if this barn has him figured out he merits a lot of respect.


 

Race #4
#5 NONNEL Case drove last week and this one was bet down from 72-1 to 9-5. He responded with a very strong 1st over 2nd place finish to a strong horse. He paced that mile over an off oval much faster than these go with good trips over a fast Northfield oval. The price will once again be short, but Case has been on a terror with Mr. Hall's horses (3 for 4 with a 2nd) and tonight he will make up for last week's miss.
#4 TRUE BLUE Drops out of a tough series and finds himself in a sweet spot. Last week he was locked in and did have a bit of pace once free. He's been hinting for quite some time and Ward has done well with this barn's horses in recent weeks. This is a very soft field and that makes this one all the better in gimmick play.
#2 TURNER Has not shown much since coming north from Florida. Last week he was saddled by the 7 hole and the week before he was behind a leader that stopped. From the inside I expect a wake-up mile and he looks to be the value of gimmick play in here.
#6 JERRY DIRECT Is very fast from the gate and has had parking excuses in recent weeks. With his early foot, if he can find the rail in decent shape he is a superfecta throw-in.


 

Race #5
#2 THE DESERT FOX Makes his sophomore debut tonight and faces a weak lot of maidens. His qualifier was even at best but he did have the 7 hole. Last year he won a qualifier with a strong 1/2 move in a decent 2 year old time. Pantaleano took this one oveer the #6 and that makes him even more dangerous. Expect an aggressive drive tonight and with such he is the one to beat. Tab the tote.
#4 SAND CRUSIN JACK Drops back down to maidens tonight after a no try outside post effort against a tough bunch. He has done well at this level, never missing a check when he stays on stride. That alone makes him a consideration in here.
#1 SCOTTY G DARN Tried the front end last week and almost lasted. I believe that effort was a bit inflated as I'm not sure how hard others tried in that race. Still, from the rail and with another aggressive drive he could share.


 

Race #6
#1 TUNGNCHEEQUE Most likely needed his last start off that sick scratch. He was also privately purchased by Jenny Belcher since then. Last week he was used twice and gave up turning for home. From the rail I expect him to be out and hunting the lead or 2 hole. Belcher/Miller has been a hot combination lately and this one looks like he could be good value.
#9 RICH MAN POOR MAN Is a VERY consistent sort. He hasn't missed the board in his last 5 starts and from the 2nd tier should have the striking position to challenge once again. Last week he was locked in til mid last turn and when he did find room he closed very nicely to just miss. A gimmick must.
#6 BIG TIME KISSER Was claimed out of his last start and could be set for a big effort. He was a terror about amonth ago, but then started to cool off. Last week was his best effort in quite some time and if the upswing continues for the new connections he may be the best of the rest.


 

Race #7
#5 SMOOTH SCOOTER Is a very luke warm selection in here, mostly due to the softness of the 7000 group. Last week he was unable to hold of a brush by the 1/2 and from there backed out of a fast last 1/2. That was his worst effort in many weeks and I'm hoping he bounces back off that effort with his usual heart and determination. He is loaded with early foot and only races up close, so the first 1/4 is key for him. If he makes the front in good shape, or gets a good 2 hole he may be the one to beat.
#2 T W HEIDER Debuted for John Lee last week and did not fire a lick. He just sat in mid-pack and raced evenly. This one went some very nice miles last year on a slow 1/2 mile track and if he remembers any of that he looks tough in here. Chance to share with his best.
#1 FAST AND EASY Has some speed and draws the rail so he will control his own destiny. Last week he was locked in an never had room. He doesn't like to win races, but in this field is a gimmick must.


 

Race #8
#1 C N JORDACHE Was my top pick last week and actually tried to leave from the 2nd tier. That got him in tight quarters on that first turn and he jumped it off. He was able to recover and get back in the flow on the backside. Then turning for home this one tipped out 3 wide and was ROLLING with a lot of trot left. His little legs were really moving. If he minds his manners tonight he should beat these easily.
#2 THE CRACK OF DAWN Gets some class relief and draws in tonight. Last week he chased a fast pace and a tough winner but still managed best of the rest honors. There isn't much in this field and he could complete a 1-2 exacta.
#3 DECIDING FACTOR Returns to Northfield where he went a big mile 4 back. He wore the trotting hobbles at The Meadows and seemed to have troubles. I'm not sure why they keep going back and forth, but if he repeats that effort of 2-27 he will finish the trifecta in here.


 

Race #9
#1 READY TO BE RICH Debuted very nicely for the Schillaci stable this past Saturday and is eligible back at the same level. He draws the rail and should be able to get away in the 2 hole without much problem (he may even want to cut the mile). This one went some very nice miles in soft stake company in Illinois last year and is no stranger to the 1/2 mile surface. A repeat is in the cards.
#6 ULTERIOR MOTIVE Had the services of Sir Walter last week and responded with a lifetime best by nearly 6 seconds an open length victory. That was against one step below this level, however, off that mile, a mile in which he left and then brushed on the backside, he merits serious respect. A repeat would be no surprise.
#2 B G SCOOTER Went to the lead and cut an honest pace and though driven to the wire, was a pretty easy winner over a slow oval. He is rounding into form and should be leaving again in here. A gimmick possibility.


 

Race #10
#5 YANKEE BOOSTER Returns from the Big M where he was facing a much tougher lot. The fact that they sent this one out there means they liked his chances. He re-unites with the hands that steared him to his last victory at this level. He has good gate speed to get position and can close up ground nicely. The price should be right and he looks to be good value.
#1 MRS JANE Was shuffled back and locked in until too late last time out. Once this one was free she flew home with lots of trot left. She is a classly little mare that loves to close. From the rail she should have striking position and just needs a little luck with room at the right time. Good value in the gimmicks.
#8 HE'S NIFTY Has been pulling VERY badly in all starts. He had to re-qualify last week and did so with a front end effort. He is a classy trotter and has a ton of ability, but right now he is his own worst enemy. He'll need his best and some luck from out here, but still merits consideration.


 

Race #11
#1 & 1A NOBLE STRIKE & MATT DILLON Is a VERY tough entry in here, though they do draw two of the outside 3 posts. Last week they finished 1-2 in a leg of this series, and the week before they swept both legs. The former is 3 for 3 with B. Miller and went a HUGE mile last week, going 3 wide at the 1/2 and never quitting. The latter has only been with Belcher 2 weeks and is getting better. Either way they look tough.
#3 MARSHRON TABLE Was too far back and out of position last week. He didn't fire a shot, electing to save all he could for this week's final. He draws in tonight and will be forwardly placed. He can really turn it on late and if he catches some room at the right time he could complete the exacta.
#2 SUN GLARE Is starting to tail off a bit after having a super form spree earlier in the year. He draws the rail tonight and Case is up, and with the money down in this final he figures to be tough.


 

Race #12
#4 SAND HIDDEN LAIR Gets the nod off of last week's EASY victory. This one left on the first turn and tucked into a hole, where he sat for a few steps only to pull first over and use a strong brush to clear a leader that usually is very stubborn on the lead. From there B. Miller just took ahold of this one and NEVER touched him. He was pacing all on his own the final 1/2 mile and looked very good doing so. He went some very fast miles in Chicago and I think Mr. Belcher has a horse that will win quite a few for him.
#1 TIMEFORMETOFLY Left last week and didn't really improve his position. He was pushed back behind a dead leader going to 3/4's and when he did get out he had already spotted the leaders 3 lengths. He closed up that ground and tipped out 3 wide and flew home to just miss in another sharp effort. He will likely leave for a 2 hole behind the top pick and is the only one in here that looks like he could possibly beat the top pick. Either way he should finish the exacta.
#2 GOOOOOOAL Ok, so I shortened his name...you get the picture. Anyway, he was claimed back by the barn that does the most with him and he looks to be getting better. He is famous for staying close to the pace and finishing well. From the 2 hole he should stalk the top 2 picks and figures to complete the trifecta.


 

Race #13
#2 SAND MY SAGE Was locked in on the final turn and when the #6 unexpectedly quit this one found herself without any room. Prior to that she had been going very well and will use her early foot to her advantage. Though she is the only girl in the race she has proven she can beat these before. An edge in a tough final.
#3 CARIBU Looks to be peaking at the right time for the final. He has a very stong late kick and with the final money on the line the early pace should be honest to fast. If this one can stay close enough and catch a little racing luck he should be flying home and could surprise many.
#6 BLINDSIGHT Left and was used hard last week and tired BADLY in mid-stretch. I really don't know why this horse quit that badly, but I'm hoping that Mr. Belcher has fixed the problem. If he races back to his previous starts he will be tough in the final. I'm just hoping that first 1/4 killed him last week and it wasn't more serious.


 

Race #14
#1 C MON CO COA Was too far back to a tough winner last week and did not fire at all. This week he draws the rail, drops to face much softer and gets B. Miller. All of these factors make this on the one to beat.
#2 HOLLY HLL BEAU Parlayed a positive driver change into a nice win at almost $100. That same driver is back tonight and the horse he beat last week won easily Tuesday night. He should be forwardly placed tonight and though the price won't be nearly as good, he still should have some value.
#7 D MILAN FLASH Has disappointed 2 straight weeks. This one seems to have trouble in the last 1/4 and tends to give up. He does drop to face softer tonight and with Case up I'll give him the best of the rest honors and suggest him as a superfecta throw-in.
#6 SUPER MERCADO Needed his last start for Pantaleano and may be better tonight.