ETHAN ZOHN - A CASE STUDY
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Opening:
Voting strategy is dependent upon the social dynamics and relative strength of the individual players in the tribe. This is as much true at the beginning of the game as it is at the end and any discussion of strategy has to begin with a summary of the individual players in the tribe.
- Clarence: PP-player. A loyal but non-aggressive player. Though strong and athletic, Clarence was isolated from the get go.
- Diane: AP-player. Diane definitely acted as one of the leaders very early on, though it didn't seem too many people were following. Though not around long, she seemed to not be timid when it came to game play.
- Ethan: AP-player. Easily likeable but definitely there to play. Always involved in any decision making process but prefers to let others lead the discusions. Formed an early relationship with Lex and Tom
- Jesse: PP-player. Jesse was became ill at an early stage and showed no signs of having her head in the game.
- Kelly: PP-player. A very social player who's tactical aggression is difficult to read. Definitely someone to be a little wary of if she isn't in your alliance. Formed an early relationship with Kim J.
- Kim J: PP-player. An older and physically weaker member, Kim formed an early relationship with Kelly though wasn't the type to make bold moves.
- Lex: AU-player. An athletic and fairly charasmatic team leader, Lex was somewhat of a control freak. Formed and early relationship with Ethan and Tom
- Tom: PP-player. A loyal tribe member who most folks found entertaining as well. Formed an early relationship with Ethan and Lex.
D-players: Ethan, Lex, Tom
T-players: Clarence, Diane, Jesse, Kelly, Kim J
Tribal Council 1 - Day 3 - Boot: Diane
Votes:
Clarence, Jesse, Kelly, Kim J & Lex voted Diane
Diane & Tom voted Clarence
Ethan voted Diane
When Diane collapsed during the immunity challenge, this became an easy choice. What made work even better is that she may have been the only other AP-player that was not in the dominant alliance. Easily the best choice all round.
Rating: Good - An aggresive player who collapsed during the challenge; it doesn't get much easier.
Tribal Council 2 - Day 6 - Boot: Jesse
Votes:
Clarence, Kelly, Kim J & Lex voted Jesse
Tom voted Clarence
Ethan voted Jesse
By this stage the boys were firmly in control of this tribe and could really take out who they choose. Jesse, who had been ill most of the time and not making strong relationships with anyone, represents a path of least resistance boot. At this early stage, that is not entirely a bad thing but even ill, Jesse could run circles around Kim at the challenges and with them losing their second immunity challenge in a row they really needed to be thinking about tribe strength. Certainly Kim was popular but I think the tribe could have been sold on her need to go. The one decenting voice may have come from Kelly, but I think she just would have put her energy into getting close with Jesse. I think the tribe would have been better off but they lucked out through the complete collapse of the Samburu tribe on the other side of the island.
By the way, don't fooled by Tom's vote. This is him just keeping Clarence in his place. Yup, way to build tribe moral, Tom.
Rating: Dubious - I think strengthen the tribe by taking out Kim would have been the better move.
Early Middle-game:
Tribal Structure:
Clarence -> Tom
Ethan -> Lex
Kelly -> Kim J
Kim J -> Kelly
Lex -> Ethan
Tom -> Lex
N-players: Ethan & Lex
D-Players: Tom
T-players: Clarence, Kelly & Kim J
The Ethan-Lex-Tom trio completely running the show with Lex as the undisputted leader. Clarence is playing the loyal soldier and Kelly and Kim J, though building a relationship between the two, are not making any moves at changing the leadership structure.
One day 13 a surprise swap saw Kelly, Lex and Tom sent over to Samburu and three new players entered Ethan's game.
- Frank: AU-player: Frank was co-leader of the Samburu tribe until his second, Carl, lost in a tie vote and was gone. Frank and Teresa are the only ones left of their alliance and both of them are furious with the other alliance in their tribe, especially Silas.
- Silas: AP-player: Silas was leader of the "mall-rat" alliance back in Samburu. He had made a deal with Carl and Frank but went back on it, incidentally the right move for his part. Silas is a gamer but underestimated the anger that his lazier alliance would generate from the older members of his tribe.
- Teresa: PU-player: A tough player to catagorize. By no stretch a leader, she is loyal to those players she feels that deserve it but willing to turn her back on her tribemates that don't. For now, she's following Frank's lead.
Tribal Council 3 - Day 15 - Boot: Silas
Votes:
Clarence, Frank, Kelly & Teresa voted Silas
Silas voted Frank
Ethan voted Silas
Frank and Teresa wasted absolutely no time handing Silas's head over on a platter and they even helped Ethan and company throw the immunity challenge, a good move for Ethan as Lex and company were looking at a three-three tie at the Samburu camp as well. For his part, Silas continued to battle right to the end and recognized Clarence as the only potential weak link in the Samburu camp. He tried to rustle together anything he could with Clarence but Clarence was just not nearly an aggressive enough player to take advantage of opportunities to come his way.
Things could have easily gone wrong for Ethan here if there were better players in the mix. Clarence should have explored options with their new tribe mates and if Frank and Teresa were smart (unfortunately, none of these three were) they would have made Clarence a final three deal and with Silas's help - Silas would have been there - voted out Ethan. This would have improved the situation for all four of these players, unfortunately they had all put blinders on and were on a one way track. There was even the opportunity for a truly brilliant play on the part of the Samburus if they could have just managed to put their past differences behind them. Silas and Clarence did hit is off and Silas learned that Clarence had four previous votes on him (half thanks to Tom's bonehead voting) while Silas had only three (thanks to Frank's and Teresa's bonehead voting). Frank, Teresa and Silas could have double-crossed Ethan by all voting Clarence and Clarence would have gone in the resulting tie. Now that would have been sweet.
Rating: Good - It's hard to look a gift horse in the mouth. Though the possibility of counterplay existed, Ethan had the situation read right.
Late Middle-game:
Tribal Council 4 - Day 21 - Boot: Clarence
The tribes merged and the remaining Samburus entered Ethan's game.
- Brandon: AU-player. An aggressive player with little loyalties and now in the minority. His actions are tough to predict.
- Kim P: PP-player. A complete follower but the only Samburu player left who really wants the tribe to hang together. Though loyal to Brandon, she also has a good relationship with Frank and Teresa.
N-players: Ethan, Lex
D-players: Kim J, Tom
T-players: Clarence, Kelly
M-players: Brandon, Frank, Kim P, Teresa
Votes:
Brandon, Frank, Kelly, Kim J, Kim P, Lex & Tom voted Clarence
Clarence & Teresa voted Lex
Ethan voted Clarence.
The argument to remove Clarence was on of strength in the immunity challenges, but it is a weak one. With the number of strong players and the variety of challenges, the likelihood of Clarence putting together any kind of meaningful winning streak is exceedingly remote. In the meantime he is just floating along happy to be there. What made this vote particularly risky was Lex telling Clarence his time had come. A cornered animal, even the most passive of animals, is capable of almost anything and considering that there was fellow T-player Kelly, who even has options with Kim J, in the mix, the two of them would have certainly been better off going over to the Samburus. What makes Samburu attractive is their disdain for each other giving a reasonable chance of a real final four deal with one of the pairs. Alas, it wasn't to be as players rolled over waiting for their number to come up.
By the way Kim J is now a D-player as the Boran alliance has extended a final four deal to her by this stage. Actually, it was likely well before this, likely shortly after the Jesse boot.
Rating: Dubious - Although with the players left, the risk was minimal I think waiting a bit (say when there are eight players left) to get rid of Clarence is safer.
Tribal Council 5 - Day 24 - Boot: Kelly
Votes:
Brandon, Kim J, Lex & Tom voted Kelly
Kelly, Frank, Kim P & Teresa voted Lex
Ethan voted Kelly
First is to realize the obvious, this is very bad for Ethan and company as both Boran and Samburu are tied in numbers, meaning if Samburu vote together the best Boran can hope for is a tie in the next immunity council. Lex has the most previous votes against and Tom is second, so Samburu can take control of this game regardless of who wins immunity.
That being said, Ethan as an individual was in a tough spot. Ethan has been letting Lex run the show but now those birds have come home to roust. Lex went uber-paranoid trying to find who put the extra vote on him (it was Teresa who felt some loyality to Clarence after Clarence dropped the immunity challenge for her). He interigated everyone and then Brandon put the bug in his ear that it was Kelly. Lex insisted that she goes and offered Brandon an immediate final five spot. Lex had both Tom and Kim J firmly on board so Ethan, a vocal opponent of the plan, had little choice but to follow along.
Lex, of course, is incapable of keeping anything under his hat and Kelly soon has caught wind of the situation. She approaches Teresa and Kim P with her support and they, along with Frank, hatch the natural plan to go after Lex. Brandon is left in an interesting position as Samburu can take control whether it is Lex that goes or Kelly.
Rating: Blunder - Deluxe brain cramp, but at least Ethan manages to safe the situation in the next tribal council.
Tribal Council 6 - Day 27 - Boot: Brandon
Votes:
Frank, Kim J, Kim P, Teresa & Tom voted Brandon
Brandon & Lex voed Frank
Ethan voted Brandon
Samburu seemed to patch up their differences with Brandon and seemed to be on track to take out Lex. In the meantime, Ethan convinced Kim J and Tom that Brandon could not be trusted and that he had to go. It looked like we were heading for Lex's demise but then he won the immunity challenge and instead of doing the obvious and shifting the vote to Tom, Samburu's uneasy truce completely crumbled and the turned on their own with Brandon.
Rating: Great - Not only does Boran regain control of the game, but Ethan has gotten rid of a player that was supporting Lex while stepping up as the more natural leader within his own tribe. This vote likely represents the beginning of Lex's process of throwing this game away.
Tribal Council 7 - Day 30 - Boot: Frank
Votes:
Kim J, Kim P, Lex, Teresa & Tom voted Frank
Frank voted Kim J
Ethan voted Frank
With the silliness apparently behind them, Boran settles into pagonging mode starting with the natural boot of taking out Samburu's leader and strongest immunity contender.
Rating: Good - Easy vote.
Tribal Council 8 - Day 33 - Boot: Kim P
Votes:
Kim J, Lex & Tom voted Kim P
Kim P & Teresa voted Lex
Ethan voted Kim P
Rating: Good - Kim P and Teresa, it's six of one and half a dozen of the other.
Tribal Council 9 - Day 36 - Boot: Teresa
Votes:
Kim J, Lex & Tom voted Teresa
Teresa voted Tom
Ethan voted Teresa
If the two D-players, Tom and Kim J, were tight there is a real risk of a coup here but with the players left in this game that just wasn't going to happen. Never-the-less, Teresa wasn't about to go out without swinging and, taking a page from Brandon's book, approached Lex saying that Tom was thinking about removing him. Again, Lex's paranoia almost got the better of him when he approached Tom with this. Tom was angered and if Ethan wasn't already in control of this game before this point, he was now.
Rating: Good - Another easy vote.
Endgame:
N-players: Ethan & Lex
D-player: Tom
T-player: Kim J
Tribal Council 10 - Day 37 - Boot: Tom
Votes:
Kim J & Lex voted Tom
Tom voted Lex
Ethan voted Tom
The thing to realize here is that despite Kim J winning immunity and throwing the order of the boots out of wack, Ethan has already won this game. Lex has a final two deal with Ethan and he is of the personality that he would stick to it. Tom's swan song vote shows where his loyality lies and Kim J will show in the next immunity council that she is an Ethan supporter as well. Ethan's easy nature and leadership skills coupled with Lex paranoid behaviour pretty much insures a final two win against any of them.
Rating: Good - No choice, really.
Tribal Council 11 - Day 38 - Boot: Lex
Votes:
Kim J voted Lex
Neither Ethan nor Lex voted in this tribal council.
Mama Kim figured she would have lost to either so she picked the one that she felt deserved to win. Personally, I think she was selling herself a bit short as both Brandon and Kim P voted for her anyway and it would have been interesting if she could have squeeked a couple of more votes if she was against Lex - Kelly? Teresa?
Tribal Council 12 - Day 39 - Boot: Kim J
Votes for winner:
Frank, Kelly, Kim P, Lex, Teresa & Tom voted Ethan
Brandon & Kim P voted Kim J
I've always considered Ethan a bit of a under-rated player. He was easily the best there was to offer this season and I think his biggest mistake really centered around his trust in Lex's stability than in anything else. Though not as strong as our previous two winner, Ethan more than deserves his seat amoungst the winners, especially considering what many of the future winners will be like.
Grades:
Opening: B-
Early Middle-game: B
Late Middle-game: D
Endgame: B
Overall Voting Strategy: C+
Overall Social Strategy: A
Comments: Ethan was extremely well liked and respected by almost all the players that he worked with. He certainly stepped behind Lex when it came to leadership, which almost cost him the game, but by the end it was him that was the more respected. Leadership: B+, Social Ability: A+
Overall Rating: B+