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04/14/03 07:46 PM
I know this seems long after the fact, but I meant to read the
article in the link above and then never got to it and forgot. I found it
again tonight and really liked it. I like his three categories for players:
leader, follower and hybrid and his different types of tribes: L-tribes
(leaderless), N-tribes (one leader), D-tribes (double leader) and M-tribes
(multi-leader). It's a really neat way of looking at the game.
H.C.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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04/14/03 11:03 PM
Okay, I hope people don't mind, but I'm having trouble sleeping
and I'm hoping working some junk out of my head will help. Feel free to
ignore.
As many of you know, I have my own Survivor Page
where I analysis the play of the players and score them on how they vote.
I've always felt very good about how I score the later stages of the game
where player roles become defined but it's the very early stages of the game
that I've often bounced back and forth with. It's trying to strike that
balance within a tribe of athletic strength (to win challenges and do work),
social strength (which also helps win challenges) and securing ones own
position within the tribe that is difficult. I think I was always trying to
fit all tribes into the same strategic mold, but I'm starting to feel that is
a mistake.
One of the main ideas in Non-cooperative Game Theory is that your strategy
should be opposite your opponents'. If you’re in a tribe full of leaders,
it's better to be a follower. If you are in a tribe full of followers, you’re
best to be a leader. And there is a lot of grey area in between. I want to
take a look the different types of tribes and how the strategy applies within
them at the very early stages of the game (the first one or two boots). I'll
then take a look at some examples. Any input is welcome.
N-tribe: The one leader tribe. This is the perfect tribe to be in. Richard,
Ethan and Brian all won playing out of N-tribes. If you found yourself in an
N-tribe I think your strategy is a simple one, be a follower and let the
leader lead. Nuzzle up close, become a member of his/her alliance and screw
him/her later. N-tribes even have the luxury of making boot choices more
easily as the internal battles aren't nearly so visible so they can
concentrate on tribe strength. This is where Sook Jai went so wrong. They had
an N-tribe and should have booted players based on keeping the team strong,
i.e. Shii Ann should have been their first boot.
L-tribe: The leaderless tribe. We don't get many of these anymore in
Survivor, but who knows, they may come back (to be honest, Tambaqui may be
close though I don't think so). In this case the best thing to be is the
leader. The quintessential leaderless tribe was Pagong, but imagine what
Gretchen could have done if she seized control of these guys. Doing this, of
course, turns the tribe into an N-tribe.
D-tribe: Double leader tribe. Now it's getting harder. The best (only?)
example of a D-tribe is Ogakor where we had two factions lead by Tina and
Jerri. Obviously the D-tribe will have tension and it took expert playing on
Tina and Colby's part to pull this one out of the bag and keep their tribe
from self-destruction. Getting rid of Jerri at the first opportunity
certainly played a big part in their success, but a tribe that starts a
D-tribe right from the start (Ogakor didn't) may be better off taking out one
of the leaders very early even if that person was a strong contributor.
M-tribe: Multi-leader tribe. These tribes are disasters and are pretty much
guaranteed for self-destruction. Samburu is the perfect example. It wasn't
just Carl and Silas because once Carl was gone, Frank filled his shoes. Once
Silas and Lindsay were separated, Lindsay became a leader. Once the merge
hit, Brandon showed he wasn't
about to follow anyone's orders. At the very least, there were five leaders
on this tribe and the removal of one or two of them (no matter who they were)
were likely not going to help. These tribes have to target leaders first, if
they have any hope of survival.
So let’s look at some specific examples. I rank votes from blunders (-2) to
brilliant (+3).
The Stacey boot: I ranked this as dubious (0 points) but I've never been
particularly comfortable with it. My logic was one of tribal strength
figuring the name of the game was winning challenges and the boot should have
been Rudy. I recognize the logic of removing a leadership threat (hence why I
never gave this a mistake (-1)), but looking at tribe types the Stacey boot
was likely the best move from Richard's perspective. Tagi was likely becoming
a D-tribe at this point, but the removal of Stacey turned it into the perfect
N-tribe. Even from the winning challenges view point, one can't ignore that
N-tribes tend to win more challenges than D-tribes.
Kel: Again I gave this a dubious for the same reasons as above, but Ogakor at
this stage was likely an M-tribe and removing one of the potential winners
(edit: I mean leaders) was likely the best move in keeping this tribe from
self destruction.
John (Thailand): Again dubious, but
I guess you know by now where I'm going. Chuay Gahn was definitely heading
into a D-tribe and the removal of John turned it into an N-tribe. Of course,
one could argue that letting John lead would also have allowed the tribe to
become an N-tribe and you could have kept the tribe at maximum strength
(which these guys really needed at this stage) by taking out Ghandia. It's a
tough call.
Anyway, I think I've worked some of this out of my system and am going to try
sleeping now. Any considered input is appreciated.
H.C.
Edited to fix sleepy headed mistakes.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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04/16/03 07:50 PM
You bring up many good points, ********. I do agree with you
about Jeffy largely blowing smoke and that a number of points in the analysis
in that article miss the mark.
The goal of any game should be to win it and any players that have goals that
contradict that can desirably be labeled bad players and we can ditch their
"strategies". That being said, I think you're right that this
throws a wrench in the whole NCGT framework right at the basic postulate level.
How can any strategy deal with a Greg Buis?
But there were things that I liked about the system. Mostly, as I've
mentioned, the way in which the tribes are categorized based upon the number
of leaders. I was always too pragmatic in the way I approached early boots.
It was all about tribe strength for me, and although that's important it's
certainly not the only factor. Maybe (probably definitely) I'm too dependent
on rigid systems to evaluate situations, but talking about M-tribes and
D-tribes helped me.
The simple fact is that N-tribes (single leader tribes) win challenges and
are successful while M-tribes (multi-leader tribes) are not, regardless of
their relative athletic strength. An early boot that moves a tribe from an
M-tribe towards an N-tribe can hardly be considered a mistake even if the
player is athletic. The increase in tribal unity more than makes up for the
loss of athleticism.
So going back to the Kel vote, I no longer consider this dubious. Ogakor was
definitely an M-tribe with Kel, Jerri and Colby and maybe even Tina at this
stage bucking for power. One of these had to go. Jerri, Colby and Tina all
had their followers, so in the interest of tribal unity, Kell was the best
choice, despite the loss of an athletic player.
H.C.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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04/18/03 10:02 AM
Leadership is certainly a slippery issue in this game and is
very difficult to define. The word also comes with its own baggage as when you
say the word you automatically think of players like Lex or Deena, but to me
these persons weren't the ones I think of as leaders. It is also here that I
deviate from the article linked to above.
Amazon Rob presented Matt with this chain anology. Each player is the link in
a chain. I don't think it's quite this simple and would rather think of a
tribe or alliance using a bull’s eye anology. Most players seem to naturally
draw towards one player for support in this game. When things get tense, they
go to this one person. If that person were in the final two and them on the
jury they would vote for this person. Through the heavily edited show it
certainly is tough trying to make these links and some of them will obviously
be debatable, but I think doing this is the key to understanding the power
structure within a tribe or alliance as these links seem to usually point to
particular people and these people are not necessarily the visible leaders of
the tribe.
I would put this person in the center of the bull’s eye with the other
players linked to them. The further off you are from the bull’s eye the lower
you are in the tribe. Some tribes have more than one bulls eye and some
tribes have bull’s eyes that prefer to remain hidden until the time is right.
Truly great players in this game keep their leadership hidden until towards
the end of the game. It's hard to argue that Tina was a leader in the early
stages of Ogakor because she was definitely riding in the drafts of more
visible players like Colby, Jerri and even Kel. Ogakor started as an M-tribe,
and then moved to a D-tribe with the Kel boot. It stayed a D-tribe through
the merge until the Jerri boot, but even at this stage it was tough to call
them an N-tribe as both Colby and Tina appeared to be equal leaders and
likely some of the players saw Colby as the leader (Roger, Nick & Amber)
and some saw Tina (Keith and Elizabeth). They almost seemed the D-tribe with
two leaders who just happen to be working together, but appearances can be
deceiving and it's the next three boots that give this away: Nick, Amber and
Roger. Although the Nick boot was based purely on immunity strength and
keeping the two former tribes from being tied, Amber and Roger cannot be
explained that way. The fact that both these people were Colby supporters (as
given away by final TC votes) cannot be ignored. Once in the final four, Tina
was surrounded by three players that would all take her into the final two
and Colby had only Tina. In the end, Colby showed that he wasn't a leader at
all but just Tina's highest ranked follower when he took Tina into the final
two instead of Keith.
The way I see leadership, it's not about running the tribe but running the
game. It's that person in the center of the bull’s eye or at the head of that
chain. Perhaps a more accurate word than leader needs to be chosen.
Staying in the same game, Kucha definitely played as an N-tribe. They
functioned efficiently, booted isolated players rather than leaders and
kicked ass in challenges. As has been noted so often, Ogakor was damn lucky
that Michael fell into the fire and Kimmi gave away that Jeff had votes on
him. With Michael gone Kucha floundered and one really has to wonder if so
many of their members would have bailed so early in that decisive immunity
challenge or even if they would have been taken in by Colby's act to draw
votes his way.
The other interesting question regarding Kucha that unfortunately will never
be answered is would it have remained an N-tribe. Would players like Alicia
and Jeff have continued to play Michael's stooges? Somehow I don't think so
which means that Michael couldn't have gotten away with the Richard Hatch
style of pagonging the enemy, they would have had to make a pre-emptive
strike on Alicia or Jeff in much the same way that Tina took out Jerri, but
would Ogakor have played along? Would Roger and Elizabeth have balked at
removing a tribe-mate when they were still "enemy" players about?
Unfortunately we will never find out, but it underscores that categorizing
tribes is more complex that just throwing them into one of four pigeon holes.
As for any good strategy being thrown by the poorer players, I 100% agree
with you *******. It would have been an extremely difficult road for any
player to emerge a winner out of the king of M-tribes, Samburu, regardless of
how smart they played. Kucha did get screwed by Kimmi and it wasn't their
fault. I thought Pappy played a good game in Marquesas and would have had a
great shot at winning if Vecepia hadn't won immunity at F4. Most recently, Deena
(a strong though likely too obvious a player) got screwed over by Rob's
mistake, IMHO.
The thing is, that still doesn't change the fact that there should be general
principles and strategies under which the game should be played. Does this
mean that players should be able to dial up a win? Absolutely not. Luck will
always have a roll in this game. It's like a poker game, one can't control
the cards you get, but you can do the most with the ones you are dealt.
H.C.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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04/21/03 12:55 PM
Maybe I'm the only one who finds this interesting, but I find
this talk of leadership within tribes to be illuminating. Here's my take on the
different tribes that have played thus far using the above language. There is
sure to be disagreement here so I am interested in hearing other people's
thoughts.
Sorry for the length.
Pagong: An L-tribe but an L-tribe can never remain as such under the
pressures of this game, though Pagong remained an L-tribe for an incredible
24 days. When Greg got voted out by the Tagi alliance they finally realized
that alliance voting was the only way to play and shifted into an N-tribe
with Jenna as the leader, but of course by then it was far too late.
Tagi: It took a few days for it to happen, but certainly by the Stacey boot
(day 9) this tribe was an N-tribe with Richard at the front. Although there
was talk of disposing him, in the end players either didn’t have the support
or the nerve to do it. By the time of the final four, everyone was sailing in
Richard’s shadow figuring he would never win that final jury vote. Oops.
Kucha: With the removal of Debb on day 3 this tribe became an N-tribe with
everyone falling behind Michael’s leadership. These guys acted the N-tribe as
well, kicking ass in challenges and removing isolated players (Kimmi) instead
of thinking about internal politics. Most folks feel that Kucha was the
stronger of the two tribes in this game and would have come out on top if not
for their leader falling into the fire and being removed from the game. Jeff
took over the role but couldn’t rally the troops in the same way that Michael
could and they went into the immunity challenge after merge far too
overconfident, directly leading to their demise. After Jeff and Alicia were
gone Kucha became an L-tribe and spent its time sucking up to the dominant
pair of Tina and Colby as opposed to conspiring against them.
Ogakor: A mess of an M-tribe at the start with Jerri and Kel butting heads
from the get go. Colby should also be considered one of the early leaders
here and it was clear that a leader had to go if this tribe was to become at
all functional. Jerri would have just been replaced by Mitchell and Colby by
Tina, so the tribe did the right thing in removing the isolated leader in Kel
on day 6. They then made a go at appearing the N-tribe with Jerri at the
front, even taking out the athletically week Maralyn at the next tribal
council, but when Ogakor went into its third consecutive tribal council, the
Brutuses came to the forefront and wisely removed the ailing Mitchell. The
lines were now firmly drawn and we had ourselves a D-tribe. This was
unavoidable as even if they decided to take out Jerri instead, it would still
have been the D-tribe as Mitchell would have filled her shoes. Luck certainly
played a large roll in these guys ending up on top of the Kuchas but once
there, Tina and Colby played it perfectly taking out Jerri at the first
opportunity and finally becoming an N-tribe on day 27. Although at the start
it appeared that Colby was actually the leader of this alliance, definitely
by the time Amber got the boot on day 33 it was Tina. When the power shift
actually occurred is tough to call, perhaps it was Tina all along.
Boran: Likely the tribe that had the easiest time achieving the N-tribe
status. The only hint of alternate leadership came from Diane but the moment
she passed out during the first immunity challenge her fate was sealed. After
her boot, all of Boran fell behind Lex’s leadership. When Lex, Tom and Kelly
left and were replaced with Frank, Teresa and Silas the tribe still remained
the N-tribe with Ethan now as the leader and Frank and Teresa just being
happy to get rid of Silas. After the merge, the tribe easily got the best
over it’s fractured opposition, but something happened on Lex’s road to
victory as by the time we moved into the final four, he was no longer the one
everyone looked to in his tribe, it was Ethan. Where exactly this happened is
tough to call but I suspect it began when Ethan organized the rest of his
tribe to help vote out Brandon against Lex’s will on day 27 and ended with
Lex questioning the support of Tom when Teresa was being booted on day 36.
Whatever it was, as we entered endgame it was Ethan who was in control of the
game and not Lex.
Samburu: Likely the worse M-tribe this game has ever seen. Divided right down
the middle into two camps led by Carl and Silas, you might think this was a
D-tribe, but once Carl was removed Frank stepped into his shoes and if Silas
had been removed he would have been replaced by Lindsey and the tribe would
still have been no where near being an N-tribe. Perhaps the best thing to do
in this situation would have been for one of the secondary leaders to try and
form a third alliance out of the followers, isolate the leaders and take them
out, but given there were only two true followers in this tribe (Teresa and
Kim Powers) it seems this idea would have been doomed to failure as well. As
it was Carl was removed and then Linda and at the beginning of day 13 they
were still an M-tribe. At the swap though, Frank, Teresa and Silas were
replaced with Lex, Tom and Kelly and the tribe became a D-tribe with Lex and
Lindsey as the two leaders. It would have been interesting if they could have
managed to remove Lex (who would have been my target in the tie), but alas it
wasn’t to be and Lindsey went down. Once the merge occurred, there were only
four members left from this tribe and you would think that finally they would
any differences behind them and be an N-tribe. To be honest they made a go of
it, but when push came to shove Brandon showed that he
couldn’t just follow Frank and he became an isolated leader himself. When Brandon went on day 27 the
tribe was finally an N-tribe but, like Pagong before it, it was way too late
to make a go at winning the game against the solid N-tribe it was up against.
Maaramu: With Hunter obviously going to play the leader whether the others
liked it or not, future Brutuses like Rob and Sean had to make decision to
take him out or fall into his shadow. For a while it looked like they were
going to do the later (and smarter) thing, and Maaramu was at least trying to
impersonate an N-tribe, or at the very least a D-tribe with a very weak
second leader (Sean). The apple cart was turned over though on day 6 when
Hunter and his followers made a move to vote out Sarah, Rob’s follower and
Rob made the right decision that this was too high a price to pay to hide behind
Hunter and so they moved to take out Hunter’s support structure in Patricia.
All illusions were cast aside and we had ourselves an M-tribe. Taking out
Hunter himself would have been tempting but it was unlikely that Patricia
would have followed the Rob/Sean pair, so they made the best decision in
keeping Hunter’s physicality. However, when the tribe lost its third immunity
challenge in a row, it was clear that Hunter had to go and the tribe finally
became an N-tribe with Sean falling behind Rob’s leadership. The problem was,
it took them three tribal councils to achieve this and they were now down 5 to 8 to the other tribe. In hindsight, the
better play may have been for Rob to join forces with Sean early and make
Hunter their very first boot. Things may have gone much differently in that
case. After the Hunter boot though, the tribes switched and Sean, Vecepia and
Rob went over to Rotu for Kathy, Paschel and Neleh. With Neleh and Pashcel
solidly supporting each other and Kathy supporting the duo, this tribe was a
very definitely an N-tribe now and acted as such, removing the most isolated
players and even winning an immunity challenge.
Rotu: With not losing an immunity challenge unit day 15 this tribe had the
luxury of never really defining a power structure and certainly appeared the
L-tribe. By the time they lost their first challenge, a swap had occurred and
they now had Sean, Vecepia and Rob with them instead of Kathy, Paschel and
Neleh. John also seemed to have built himself a little alliance with Tammy as
his second and Gabriel as his third but then things got interesting as
Gabriel claimed he wasn’t in any alliance and was just there for the
experience. The tribe was certainly an M-tribe now, split into two camps with
John and Rob at the head of each one and back up leaders to replace them.
John became paranoid about Gabriel and thought that Rob and Sean would fall
in line and help vote him out, he should have known better as the first thing
they did was approach Gabriel and try to force a tie vote. In the end Gabriel
bowed out by throwing his vote away, but John was still left with threats to
his leadership. When the merge came, Rob and Sean wasted no time in trying to
secure support from isolated former Rotus and correctly saw Kathy as the weak
link. John managed to get the support to get rid of Rob and seemed on the
verge of getting rid of Sean as well which would have likely cleared his road
to victory, but they rubbed their dominance in the faces of the lesser
players during the immunity challenge and Paschel and Neleh woke up and
decided to join forces with Kathy, Sean and Vecepia and John was gone. After
John’s departure on day 24, no one stepped into his leadership roll and
finally the game evolved into the classic N-tribe with Paschel as the leader
and they acted like an N-tribe in systematically pagonging John’s former
alliance mates. No threats appeared to Paschel's leadership until the final
four when the player that was surely slated to go next, won immunity. Vecepia
was not about to make the same mistake as former fourths Kelly Wigglesworth
and Kim Johnson and simply target the third and buy her way to the next
tribal council. She forced a tie by voting Neleh. In a new tie breaking
method it was Paschel that ended up leaving and the entire dynamic changed.
No more leader and second, just three players thinking about who would they
win against in the final jury vote. When the popular Kathy was the first to
fall out of the final immunity challenge, it was clear that it was going to
be Neleh and Vecepia in the final two. Sometimes it just isn’t in the cards
for the leaders.
Chuay Gahn: The tribe became an N-tribe on day three with them voted out
John, the only other leadership candidate. Brian became the leader of this
tribe and was never threatened once from within or without his tribe.
Sook Jai: A core group of four formed very quickly from Penny, Jake, Ken and
Erin. A complex quartet, but with Jake and Erin’s support of Penny, it was
she who was the leader. This became especially obvious when it was just the
four of them left and they had to decide who to go. Ken and Erin were each
sucking up to the duo of Jake and Penny and I got the distinct impression it
was Penny that called the boot, but I’m getting ahead of myself. Technically
a D-tribe at the start with Penny and Jed as the respective leaders, the
thing was Jed was such an ineffective leader as to pose virtually no threat
and he and his two followers were not after any of the dominant four but
their fifth in Shii-Ann, a non-athletic and, far more significantly, a smart
player that would never have played the underdog if she could help it. She
was this tribe’s only Brutus and should have been the first one to go. The
fact that they threw the immunity challenge to get rid of Jed on day 9 just
adds to this mistake. Either way, with Jed gone the tribe became a classic
N-tribe like Chuay Gahn but with far more athletic players and should have
humped them. Instead they voted off their most athletic players and sheltered
their smoldering Brutus. The merge was delayed this season, which only
allowed this tribe to disintegrate even further, but when the merge finally
hit, the three remaining players still showed they had learned nothing about
how to play and like Kucha before them, soon became an L-tribe and spent
their time sucking up to the dominant players like Brian and Clay when they
should have been stirring the pot.
H.C.
Edited to fix numerous typos and unclear statements.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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04/21/03 08:19 PM
In reply to:
A small point I would disagree with you on. I don't think Kel, John Raymond
and Diane qualify as leaders. They may have wanted to be, but leaders without
followers are just isolated cranks.
Absolutely. I think I referred to them as "isolated leaders" an
undeniable oxy-moron though they are certainly leader wannabes. I think the
original article would have labeled these people "hybrids" but the
writer just seemed to use that term as a catch-all for the people that didn't
neatly fit the category of leader or follower. Either way, I think these
people are fair game and good targets if it moves the tribe towards being an
N-tribe.
I think the evidence seems to show that the first tribe to become at least
the semblance of an N-tribe is at a tremendous advantage.
Borneo: Tagi achieved N-tribe status on day 9,
Pagong day 24. Leader after merge, Tagi. Winner from Tagi.
Australia: Kucha achieved
N-tribe status on day 3, Ogakor day 27. Random elements seemed to have
conspired against Kucha here. I think most of us agree that if Michael hadn't
fallen into the fire, Kucha would have ended up on top. Even with that, it's
not like Kucha didn't have its chances later. If Kucha had played better they
wouldn't have helped with the boot of Jerri but instead turned the table on
Colby or Tina, which would create a whole new game. The thing is, once Alicia
was gone, Kucha was no longer an N-tribe but a sad dog L-tribe.
Africa: Boran achieved N-tribe on day 3, Samburu
day 27. Boran romped.
Marquesas: Rotu achieved N-tribe on day 24, Maaramu day 9. This comparison
may not be fair as Maaramu had to remove three players to achieve N-tribe
status and was truly at the disadvantage come the merge. I think there is little
doubt that if Vecepia had not won the immunity challenge at F4 she would have
been gone and the winner would have been a Rotu. That being said, without the
coordinated and continued attack by Rob, Sean and Vecepia, John's leadership
would likely have never been toppled and Vecepia would likely have never got
to the final four. Maaramu's unity (even if it was just three players)
certainly played a factor in Vecepia's win and if they had drifted into
L-tribe mode like Kucha, the winner would probably have been John in a very
boring game.
Thailand: Chuay Gahn achieved
N-tribe on day 3, Sook Jai on day 9. This is another one that is a little
deceptive as, IMHO, Sook Jai's downfall had little to do with it's tribe type
and more to do with a dominant four that didn't recognize who were the
threats and who could be used. Frankly speaking, Sook Jai had no idea of how
to play at any stage of the game.
I think the most telling thing to note is that every time the winner has come
from the dominant tribe, that winner was the leader of the N-tribe, though
admittingly a couple of times it wasn't until late in the game that the
leader emerged.
In reply to:
So how would you analyze Tambaqui and Jaburu so far, and does that say anything
about who is on the track to the winner's circle.
Well since you asked ...
. I should preface this by saying that I think Amazon is, by far,
the most complex game to analyze in this way as the intertribal alliances are
tough to untangle.
Jaburu: Maybe I just don’t know women well enough (a distinct possibility),
but I was very surprised to find that it was them that gave us this game's
M-tribe with Jeanne, Jenna and Deena player the leaders. Maybe it was the
threat of the guys, but they sure starting by playing the N-tribe, winning
challenges and booting an isolated and non-athletic player in Janet, but
after Janet went Jenna and her two followers realized that they would be next
and tried to pull in Deena to take out the abrasive JoAnna on day 12, and the
facade of a united tribe fell aside. Besides removing their biggest athletic
asset, this boot does little to move the tribe towards the N-tribe ideal as
we still have Jeanne, and Deena would still have to contend with Jenna and
her followers, which outnumber her and Christy three
to two. Deena would have been better off convincing Christy that
revenge on JoAnna will come and take out Jenna. She could then play the
Brutus roll, hiding behind Jeanne’s leadership and waiting for her
opportunity to get the best over the abrasive pair. I would say at this stage
the tribe moved into a D-tribe as Jenna and her followers did the wise thing
of sliding behind Deena's shadow. They remained a D-tribe even after the swap
on day 13 which say Jeanne, Heidi and Christy go in return for Rob, Alex and
Matt. They lost one leader in Jeanne and picked up Alex instead. Some
interesting things happened though as Rob formed an alliance with Denna but
at the same time Alex was bonding with Shawna. Denna convinced Jenna that
Shawna needed to go and she helped vote her out. I found this strange, but
perhaps Jenna felt she could bring Alex in with her, which is exactly what
happened. These remaining players formed an alliance, but it was clear that
when the merge came and Heidi and Christy returned, we had a group of seven
players in one alliance. Something had to go. Alex joined Jenna and Heidi
behind Deena's leadership creating an N-tribe with a severe Brutus complex.
Deena seemed oblivious to the threat that this trio represented and on day
27, Deena finally made a move to target Alex but simply didn’t see the
support he had. Even Rob strangely fell behind Alex here. At the current stage,
I would say this is a pretty solid N-tribe with Jenna as the leader, but Rob
is a wild card. I would categorize him as a follower who wants to be a
leader, knows he needs to be a leader, but doesn't have the social skills to
do it. He may be desperate and capable of anything and I really can't see
what he is going to do next.
Tambaqui: Technically a D-tribe to start with Roger the lead of one camp and
Ryan the lead of the other, this status didn’t last long as most of the
players did the smart thing and hid behind Roger’s leadership (see, people
are learning
) and Ryan bit the dust creating an N-tribe though Roger was up to
his armpits in potential Brutuses, especially Alex. The swap saw Rob, Alex
and Matt go for Heidi, Christy and Jeanne. A tie vote loomed but the
remaining guys made the wrong move in approaching Heidi to switch as she was
part of a strong alliance (and Dave knew this!) and would have never remained
loyal to them. Heidi should have been the target in this group. When the
merge came, Christy and Heidi ran back to their respective alliance and the
remaining loyal Tambaqui never saw it coming.
Currently, I think tribal lines have pretty much completely broken down so
I'm going to make two tribes out of the remaining players.
Dominant Tribe: Jenna-Heidi-Alex-Rob. N-tribe with an unstable fourth.
Weaker Tribe: Matt-Christy-Butch. Total L-tribe waiting for someone to tell
them what to do.
Obviously I could so easily have this wrong. The alliances are complex enough
as it is and EPMB's editing is always tough to slug your way through, but if
I were to make a call as to the winner, I would go with Jenna.
H.C.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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04/22/03 07:04 AM
I hear what you are saying, *******. Gretchen was certainly
targeted because of her leadership skills. In fact I think that is one of
Richard Hatch's best moves of the game, but when I use the term leadership, I
really mean in a game sense. Was she controlling other peoples' votes? When
she went, this is how her tribe voted.
Colleen voted Richard
Gervase voted Sue
Greg voted Jenna
Gretchen voted Rudy
Jenna voted Gervase
To me this indicates no leadership at all as far as playing the game.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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04/22/03 10:37 AM
I have a question as far as types go, ******. At what stage of the
game do you make the determination as I think tribes can change from one type
into another over the course of the game? If we are going by what they were
the majority of the game, I would categorize them as follows. Of course all
this is subject to opinion.
Tagi: N
Pagong: L
Ogakor: D
Kucha: N
Boran: N
Samburu: M
Maaramu: M
Rotu: N
Chuay Gahn: N
Sook Jai: N
Jaburu: M
Tambaqui: N
Just to clarify my definitions, which I've tweaked a bit in my own mind from
the original article.
L-tribe: No players are directing voting. Players are voting as they
individually see fit.
N-tribe: One player is directing overall voting. N-tribes may contain
isolated players that are not voting with the group but are making no moves
towards leadership or forming alliances. N-tribes may also contain Brutuses
that may have secret alliances and plan on overthrowing the leader at some
stage. As long as their plans remain hidden from the leader, it will still
remain an N-tribe. Two leaders working together also form an N-tribe as there
is still only one source of leadership. My experience is that even this
situation has only one leader in the pair, though power can shift back and
forth.
D-tribe: Two leaders working two different factions within a tribe. D-tribes
are one boot away from being N-tribes, if the right person is removed.
Example: When Jerri was booted, Amber fell right in tow changing Ogakor from
a D-tribe to an N-tribe.
M-tribe: Multiple leaders. There may still be only two factions, but removing
the leader from either faction does not create an N-tribe because there is
another leader to fill the void. Example: Samburu was led by Carl and Silas,
bur removing either one does not create an N-tribe. Carl was replaced by
Frank and Silas would have been replaced by Lindsey.
I know these are likely slightly different than the original definitions and
any input in nailing them down more precisely is appreciated.
H.C.
"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."
-Crash Davis in Bull Durham
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