THE LATE-MIDDLE GAME

The late-middle game runs from when the tribes have merged and one tribe has established a majority, until there are only four players left, at which time we move into endgame.

Just One More Player Type

Okay, just one more player type, but it's a simple one. Now that the tribes have merged and one tribe is in the majority, it stands to reason that one tribe is in the minority. The players of this tribe I will refer to as M-players. Just to recap, this means that every player has one of four positions to play from. Let's Look At The Stats

The following table contains all the players from the first nine seasons of Survivor that made it to this stage of the game and what catagory they fell into. The winners are bolded.

N-players Richard (Borneo), Rudy (Borneo), Colby (Australia), Tina (Australia), Ethan (Africa), Lex (Africa), John (Marquesas), Tammy (Marquesas), Brian (Thailand), Clay, Jenna (Amazon), Heidi, Christa, Sandra, Amber (All-Star), Rob M (All-Star), Ami, Leann
D-players Sue (Borneo), Kelly (Borneo), Keith, Tom (Africa), Kim J, Robert, Zoe, Helen, Jan, Alex, Rob (Amazon), Rupert (Pearl Islands), Jenna L (All-Star), Rupert (All-Star), Scout, Twila
T-players Sean (Borneo), Amber (Australia), Jerri (Australia), Kelly (Africa), Kathy (Marquesas), Neleh, Paschel, Ted, Christy, Deena, Matt, Burton, Jon, Lillian, Alicia (All-Star), Tom (All-Star), Eliza, Julie
M-players Colleen, Gervase, Greg (Borneo), Jenna (Borneo), Alicia (Australia), Elizabeth, Nick, Roger, Brandon, Frank, Kim P, Teresa, Rob (Marquesas), Sean (Marquesas), Vecepia, Ken, Jake, Penny, Butch, Dave, Roger (Amazon), Darrah, Ryan O, Tijuana, Kathy (All-Star), Lex (All-Star), Shii-Ann (All-Star), Chad, Chris, Lea, Rory

A couple of points of explanation on some players: In Survivor-Amazon, the tribal loyalties had pretty much broken down making the traditional approach rather pointless. The N-players were most certainly Jenna and Heidi (in fact they were the only self-supporting pair). Once that is established, the rest pretty much falls into place. In Survivor-Pearl Islands, Lillian out and out joined joined the forces of Drake as a T-player, the only player to ever switch tribes like this, though it took her tribe voting her out and a twist bringing her back to accomplish it.

Okay, here's the ugly truth: seven of the nine winners were N-players at this stage. The players in that catagory have an amazing win percentage of 39% (the highest it could possibly be is 50% as there are always two N-players). The only other group to produce winners in the first nine seasons are the M-players with a win percentage of 6%. The rest, bupkiss until Tom pulled it off as a T-player in the recent (at this writting) Survivor-Palau. Even if I had Tom in, it gives the T-players a winner percentage of only 5% and the D-players are still a big goose egg.

And It Gets Uglier - Who Wins Final Twos

In the final tribal council, players talk about honesty, integrity and gameplay and almost everyone of them is blowing smoke because when it comes down to it, the vote comes down to social tribal standings. And here are the standings.
  1. N-players
  2. M-players
  3. D-players
  4. T-players
Don't believe me? Look at the data. Pull out the final twos from the above table and match up the ones that are from different catagories. Everytime the players are from different catagories, the one from the higher catagory wins. In fact, it is when the players are from different catagories that we tend to get the landslide victories. And yes, both times the M-player won it was over a T-player and it's easy to see why: the M-player is pretty much guaranteed all the votes from his or her old tribemates while the T-player will lose many of their own tribemates votes because they dared to upset the order of things. Personally, I think the M-player should be sitting above the D-player too, it's just that the two have never met in the end.

So, does that mean that you had best be an N-player for a reasonable shot at winning this thing? Not necessarily, but it obviously helps. What needs to be recognized is that, in order for a non-N-player to win, there must be some kind of shake up of the order of things and that means playing aggressively. Non-N-players that make it into the final two just because they won some immunity challenges at the right times have a very small chance of winning unless they can point to some place where they blazed their own path and didn't simply follow the pack. Moreover, if players want to win in the final vote, they cannot be sitting opposite a player of a socially higher standing than them. Again, that means the non-N-players need to get rid of the N-players, hopefully before the final four, and the lowly T-player needs to make part of their plan sitting opposite to another T-player, if at all possible. But, talking about the final two is getting a bit ahead of ourselves. Let's step back a little to what our goal should be for the end of this phase of the game - the final four.

The Goal

Obviously the first goal is to make the final four but secondary to that, you want to be one of the N-players by this stage. That means, if you are currently an N-player you want to maintain the status quo, but if you are not an N-player, you need to two things. One, get rid of both N-players by the final four because if an N-player lucks into winning the final two immunity challenges, they've likely won the game. Two, have a solid final two partner that you have a chance of beating, rounded out by two other players that support you and your partner, not each other. This is no small task if you are sitting down in the pecking order, but not insurmountable. Here comes the basic strategies of how to do this.

M-players - Stir That Pot

Although hardly ideal and certainly not what you have been working towards, M-players still have hope as Vecepia and Chris showed us. What is required, though, is for the other tribe to break down and that can be encouraged through some pot stirring. First, forget about all previous power structure within your own tribe. All of that has to be put into the past and you are going to have to work with whomever you have available. Identify the power structure on the other tribe and begin working on the T-players. You need them to realize that they have little hope of a win unless they turn on their leaders and for that they are going to need the help of your tribe. Be relentless with this. If it makes the leaders of the opposing tribe mad, great. When emotions are high the chances for mistakes increase. Don't approach the T-players on mass. If four of you work on a single T-player, it would clearly not be to that player's advantage to come over to your side, but if one or two go over with the impression you are ready to ditch your tribemates later, it may just work. Whatever impression you give, though, don't ambandon your tribemates during this phase. The more of your own people you can bring deeper into the game, the better your chances of winning will be.

If you do get a chance to take on the dominant alliance in the other tribe, remember, shoot for the head. Under no circumstances try to weasle yourself into the dominant alliance. That method is doomed to failure. Your only real chance of winning comes from bringing the dominant alliance down.

T-Players - Look For Your Opening

When I started writing this section I began going through all kinds of different scenerios that the T-player may find themselves in and realized that this was getting way too crazy. It is clear that the T-player is going to need to think on their feet and play the situations as they come, so I decided to just go with a few overriding concepts instead.

First, don't be satisfied with fifth or sixth or whatever crumb the dominant alliance is throwing your way. Second, don't kid yourself that the alliances aren't what they are or that if you suck up to the N-players enough they will let you in. It ain't gonna happen. The N-players have likely invested considerable energy into building what they have and they aren't going to just throw that away.

In order for the T-player to come out on top, they are going to have to play aggressively and that means toppling the tribal heiarchy by voting out those that are on top. If you aren't prepared to do that, you might as well pack your bags and get comfortable on the jury. If you are prepared to do that, then read on.

Your ability to orchestrate a coup depends upon the dynamics within the T-players and M-players, and perhaps one of the D-players. Let's start by taking a look at a favourable situation. Your tribe is up seven to two and you have a solid relationship with the other T-players in your tribe. This is a "what are you waiting for" type of moment. The T-players plus M-players give five votes and solid control and they can take out whom they choose. In addition, the T-players will outnumber the M-players (likely by three to two). The M-players will almost certainly join you as they have no better option but you will still be able to control the situation and dispose of them later in the game. The first target should be the leader of the dominant alliance, no questions asked. You can worry about immunity contenders later.

Okay, let's look at the other end of the spectrum. Your tribe is up five to four and the N-players have a solid four player alliance that you cannot make headway with. Your chances of ending up on top of this game are exceedingly slim but not nonexistent. Your best hopes lie with the D-players. If they are playing right, they should be disposing of an N-player when there are six players left. The problem is, D-players tend to be passive-predictable types (exactly the types good N-players put into that roll) so there is a very good chance you aren't going to make any headway with them. Don't let them fool you! If you don't think they've got what it takes to pull the coup down the road, take matters into your own hands. Obviously joining flat out with the M-players is not an option as you are only making a lateral move (fifth to fifth) and screwing over your tribe to do it, but that doesn't mean you have no other options. Be creative. Here's a possibility.

Keeping working on the fourth in the dominant alliance. Point out they're almost surely gone at four and promise them final two (and mean it). Point out that they are sitting socially higher in the tribe than you meaning a likely win for them should it come to you and him or her in the final two. Hopefully, you've seen this situation coming and have been working on them since well before the merge. Don't be a pain about it, but make sure they realize that option is always out there for them. If you feel they are going to team up with you, make a plan to vote out an N-player when there are seven players left (your two votes plus to two remaining M-players will be enough). The dominant alliance will be furious, but don't worry about that. Vote out the remaining N-player and hopefully the last member of that alliance will see things clearly and help you vote out one of the two M-players and you go into a final four that ain't that bad.

But what if the fourth won't play ball. Again, flat out joining the other tribe (don't believe a single promise they throw your way) or waiting for your number to come up are not options. Here's a better one. At eight, approach the remaining M-tribe members with the offer to force a tie. Tell them that the other tribe will likely be so mad at you that you could easily be forced to join the M-players outright and play fourth to their three (provided, of course, one of the dominant alliance picks the purple stone). At tribal, stick to your guns and roll the dice. Don't believe any sudden, desperation, promises as they will likely be broken the next morning. With some luck an N-player bites the dust. If not, well at least you tried. If an N-player goes down, wait until the next morning to approach the fourth and renew your final two promise. Say that all you want is for the game to be "fair" and for each of us to have an equal shot (PP-players eat up crap like that). Join back with your own tribe if they'll take you (they may just vote your ass out and the M-players might help). If not, at least you can say to yourself that you went down swinging.

Obviously, there is a whole lot of gray area inbetween these two extremes and, more than any other player, the T-player needs to work within the grays and try to manipulate the pieces into their best approximation of a winning game.

D-player Strategy - Bide Your Time

D-players have the worst win record in Survivor, and I don't think that's a quincidence. I don't think it is because the position is inherently weak, quite the opposite in fact. The problem lies in the type of players that fall into this roll. N-players usually seperate themselves from the rest of their tribe fairly early in the game. Quite frankly, the N-players tend to be the best players and as such, they recognize intuitively that their success rides on getting the right people to fill the supporting rolls. In their confessionals they usually say they surround themselves with players they can trust, but what they really mean is players they can trust not to act in their own best interest. Being an N-player usually means that you are pretty good and reading people and the N-players in Surivivor have shown a pretty good track record in picking the D-players that will stick with them right to the end.

Quite frankly, if all players played the way they ought to, the D-player is the strongest position in the game because you are unlikely to be the target of an early stab but you are in the position where you can get the last stab. Ideally, this is what should happen: The D-players should ally, and when there are six players left in the game, they should approach the other two non-N-players (ideally, two nonalligned players) with the plan to vote out the two N-players (remember, we don't want an N-player in the final four). They'll then go into the endgame with as good a hand as you can get.

And this has happened how many times? Oh right, zero, and I'm not holding my breath waiting. What gets in the way is that D-players rarely ally (though there has been many that easily could have) and spend their time sucking up for the favour of the N-players ... sigh. A D-player that isn't getting anywhere with the other D-player should ally with a T-player and perhaps make the move earlier than when there are six players left. For example, at seven there could easily by two N's, two D's, two T's and one M. If the two T's are not allied, a D can ally with one and with the M's support, remove the N-players. There are many possibilities, but they all come down to looking for opportunities, playing aggressively and being creative. For a D-player, though, those opportunities tend to come later in this phase rather than sooner and he who stabs last is the one that is going to control the game.

A Summary For Non-N-players

The common thread between the previous three player positions is the need to dispose of the N-players before the final four. The following points should help you in determining when and how this should happen.
  1. Know your player types: Who of the players that are left are passive, who is aggressive? Who is predictable and who is not? The lower your standing, the more you want aggressive and unpredictable players in the game. If the N-players target one of these types, consider this as a possible time to try and turn the tables. Recognize as well that passive-predictable players are unlikely to help in a coup attempt. A PP-player in a key position can easily spoil your plans and may force you to play aggressively earlier that you would like.
  2. Put yourself in the other player's shoes: You should spend a decent amount of time thinking about the game from someone else's perspective and consider their motivations. N-players are unlikely to ditch their D-players for M-players, so don't waste your time proposing alliances like that. The best alliances are built out of mutual self interest so find the players that are in a position that would benefit from an alliance with you.
  3. Time your move carefully: The timing of any coup attempt is crucial. Too soon leaves room for a counter-attack. Too late and you may not be able to perform a coup at all. Think ahead! Imagine the dynamics with your target gone and how they could shift. The last thin you want is to orchestrate a coup only to have things shift again leaving you as the target.
  4. Shoot for the head: Do I have to keep saying this? When pulling a coup, the target should be one of the N-players, period. Try your best to have neither N-player make the final four.

N-Player Strategy - Hold Your Breath And Count To Five

Here's the first thing you need to realize as an N-player: you should never win! I know this seems in stark contrast to the statistics quoted at the beginning of this document, but the truth behind that statement is abundantly clear. If everyone played this game the way they ought, they should always get rid of you at some point in the game. So, your hopes are pinned upon these players not doing what they ought to. Thankfully, the success rate of the N-player bares out the fact that this happens more often than not. So the primary advice for the N-player is to play it cool and don't wake those sleeping dogs.

When this phase of the game begins, there are either ten or nine players left in the game so the key number of votes the N-player needs to maintain their control is five (remember, unless the actual tribes are tied in number, there is little chance of a tie happening so half the votes are enough). When the game is down to eight, you need four votes and when down to six you need three. So, the question becomes, do you have the votes to pull this off?

It seems ironic that the slimmer your majority the better your chances are, but upon closer inspection it's easy to see why. If seven of your tribe make the merge, it means there are three, perhaps even four, T-players that are not in your final four plans. Moreover, it also means there are only three M-players. Let's say you boot an M-player first, then there are three T-players and two M-players with nine players left in the game. Even the slowest of T and M players would realize they have a majority if they team up, and the thought of turning the tables on you can't be too far behind. Compare that to a five-four majority where there is only one T-player and four M-players. The M-players would likely love to take in the T-player but even the most aggresive T-player is unlikely to screw over his or her tribe only to remain a T-player just for the other tribe. You boot an M-player here and if your final four alliance was built correctly, you can likely cruise right into the final two. That is why I mentioned in early middle-game strategy that it may be a good idea to begin to throw challenges once the opposing tribe is down to four.

N-players have things set up pretty good and what they need to do is play it safe. The safest course is the systematic removal of the opposing tribe, affectionately referred to as "pagonging" after the first tribe to suffer this fate. Start your pagonging by removing the leader of the M-players, not necessarilly the biggest immunity threat. After a traditional merge, there are eight individual immunity challenges and the chances of someone putting together that kind of win streak is not your overriding concern. What is, is the possibility of a coup and it is charasmatic, smart leaders that are the biggest threat here.

That being said, you still don't want to keep strong immunity contenders who are not in your alliance for long. My general advice is this: as long as you get rid of these types of players before there are six players left, you are probably sitting alright. This is especially true if you yourself, or your second, is also a strong contender in the challenges.

What about removing a T-player before all the M-players are gone? This is certainly a possiblity but needs to be considered more carefully as there is a greater risk involved. First, do you have firm support from you D-players for such a move? Second, do you need the support of the M-players? If the answer to this second question is yes, then think long and hard before making this move. Any smart M-players would immediately fink you out and try and turn this into a coup opportunity. Thankfully, the game is populated with not-so-smart players and if you removed the M-player leaders early, there is a decent chance for you to get away with it. Just make sure the risk you are taking is clearly recognized and worth the reward. Removing an annoying player may best be left until the numbers are down to such a point that you don't need the M-player's help.

If you have survived to eight, then your chances of being in the final two have increased substantially as long as you can keep your two D-players loyal. Ideally, these should be PP-players, but by this stage it may be too late to begin adjusting them much. Be very wary about tinkering with your alliance. Protect your D-players because it is upon their backs that you will ride to victory. Make sure their comfortable with their spot in the final four and the thought of turning on you is far from their minds. You need to be particularly wary of the fourth in your alliance. If you have a weak link, it is here. Do everything you can to not give them reasons to think about their other options.

Some examples:

The Good:

Scout from Survivor-Vanuatu: Scout entered this phase of the game a solid D-player, riding third to N-players Amy and Leann. She had a close ally in Twila whom both seemed to feel was also in the final four pact. The T-players were Eliza and Julie, while the M-players were Chris, Chad, Rory and Lea. It was a 6-4 merge and the predictable pagonging began: Rory, Lea & Chad bit the dust. I've got to say that I'm not super happy with the order of the pagonging. Rory was the most unpredictable and unlikable of the M-players, but Chris was clearly the leader. I would have started there, then Lea, Chad and then Rory. The thing is, though respected, as a D-player Scout's roll right now was to follow Ami's and Leann's lead.

It was after Chad's boot that things got fun. Scout recognized that Twila's was no longer sitting fourth in the alliance and had been replaced by Julie, in fact Julie may now be sitting third (remember N-players: don't muck with your alliance). Scout realized that the time was ripe to turn the tables on Ami and Leann and the opportunity was provided when they wanted to target the unpopular Eliza. Ami and Twila pulled in the support of Eliza and Chris and booted Leann (Ami had won immunity), then Ami and then Julie (perfectly done). Scout went into the final four with the solid support of Twila with third and fourth Eliza and Chris. Though having an M-player in the final four is a bit scary - especially when he was their leader - but Scout really did the best she could with the tools that she had.

The Bad:

The Kucha tribe from Survivor-Australia: After a feeble performance in an important immunity challenge when the two tribes merged tied at five players a piece, Kucha ended up on the short end of a tie vote and entered this phase the M-players. Kucha consisted of Alicia, Elizabeth, Roger and Nick. The N-players were the very obvious Tina and Colby backed up by solo D-player Keith with the agressive Jerri and her stooge Amber making up the T-players. Tina and Colby started by pagonging Alicia but when their next target, Nick, won the immunity challenge they approached them with taking out Jerri instead of the extremely likable Elizabeth and Roger. The door was open but Kucha decided to close it again. With Colby, Tina and Keith voting Jerri and Jerri and Amber voting Elizabeth, the Kuchas didn't even have to risk going to Jerri and Amber, an act that may have angered Tina and Colby turning the vote back their way. All they had to do was put three votes on Colby - tie and a revote. In the revote, the only eligible people to vote for are those that are tied (Colby and Jerri) with those two inelligble to vote. All Kucha has to do was keep the votes on Colby. Tina and Keith would certainly vote Jerri again so the deciding vote would fall to Amber, and considering the attempted stab on Jerri, she would almost certainly be forced to write down Colby's name. In fact, if Kucha had played their votes right when Alicia went and voted Colby, Colby would have gone because of votes against regardless of how Amber voted now. With Colby gone, and Jerri and Amber not knowing whom to trust, we would have a whole new game on our hands.

The Ugly:

Jon from Survivor-Pearl Islands: The N-players were Christa and Sandra backed up D-player Rupert (a rare T-leader). Jon was looked to be occupying the fourth spot in this alliance but had a second in crime in Burton backed up by Lillian, who are back in the game despite being voted out earlier due to a rule twist. The game was rounded out by M-players Andrew, Darrah, Ryan O and Tijuana. Jon had this set up pretty good. All he had to do was wait until there were seven players left and use the support of the remaining M-player to get rid of Rupert and company, but he was over eager for the stab and pulled the trigger one immunity council to early. By then Andrew and Ryan O were gone and there was, not surprisingly, no problem drumming up support to send Rupert packing. Jon really dodged a bullet when Darrah and Tijuana didn't team up with Christa and Sandra to turn on Burton and Jon, but he made the mistake of going after Tijuana next. Sorry Jon, but you need her support. The players that should have gone next were Christa and Sandra. Again, Jon didn't pay for this mistake and Sandra and Christa helped get rid of Tijuana but then Jon and Burton flipped again and used Darrah and Lillian to target Christa. Miraculously, this worked again, but Jon decided to flip one more time and vote out Lillian (this would make stab number five by my count! - Rupert twice, Tijuana, Christa & Lillian) and the inevitable finally happened. Lillian joined with Sandra and Darrah and sent Burton packing and Jon went into the final four with no one loyal to him at all.

Jon should have been almost guaranteed the final two and the lesson to be learned is this. As a non-N-player you are going to have to create a coup, but you have to time that stab correctly and you can't keep flipping and stabbing expecting the rest of the players to remain loyal to you. It just doesn't work.