Survivor-All Star Predictions (April 1, 2004)
Well, episode 9 has just ended and we are now down to nine players. This is my time when I like to make my prediction on who wins. This prediction has nothing to do with spoilers (in fact, I avoid them) and everything to do with how the players have played in the first half of the game and what position they now occupy. For a detailed account of how I do this and it's success record over the first seven seasons visit A Question of Predictions.
The first thing I look at is the points accumulated thus far.
| Vote Points |
| Amber | 2 |
| Jenna | 2 |
| Alicia | 1 |
| Rob | 1 |
| Tom | 1 |
| Rupert | 0 |
| Kathy | -2 |
| Lex | -4 |
| Shii Ann | -4 |
Admittedly, pretty slim pickings which was caused by the top players left in the game having only gone to tribal council once or twice, but we can only work with what we've got.
The second thing to look at is the strength of each player's position.
| Player Position |
| Paired | Most Support | Rob |
| Second | Amber |
| Weaker Alliance | Jenna
Rupert |
| Weaker Tribe | Kathy |
| Shii Ann |
| Unpaired | Thirds & Fourths | Tom |
| Weaker Alliance | Alicia |
| Weaker Tribe | Lex |
This is always subjective, but support lines seem fairly clear in this one. Whether Kathy is paired with Shii Ann or Lex is one question, but since the likelihood of any of these three winning is pretty low, it really doesn't make too much of a difference. What would make a difference is where Alicia fits in. I'm guessing that she is not in Rob's final four plans yet at the same time I think Alicia is supporting Rob, making her an unpaired weaker alliance player. If she has a deal with someone else (the best candidate would be Jenna) it doesn't improve her position, but it would the person she is supporting.
The next step is to add the ranking of each player from the above two tables together to get their overall rank.
| Points Rank | Position Rank | Total |
| Amber | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Jenna | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Rob | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Rupert | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Tom | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| Alicia | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Kathy | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Shii Ann | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| Lex | 8 | 9 | 17 |
Ranking The Players By The Numbers:
Amber: Do not discount this woman! She stands a very solid chance of winning the whole thing. Paired with Rob she has the advantage of being in a very powerful alliance but is seriously underestimated by her opponents. If Rob goes in a coup it is very possible the revolutionaries will mistakenly keep her around and her jury support would likely get her the win in much the same way as Jenna and Sandra won in Amazon and Pearl Islands. A second very possible scenario is that her and Rob are in the final three, but the third player wins immunity. This player would most likely boot Rob and then most likely lose to Amber. I cannot ditch the game that she has played thus far.
Rob: Five out of seven times the player at the top of the heap at this stage has gone on to win the whole thing and there is absolutely no indication that Rob won't do the same thing. Everyone seems to want to be riding in Rob's shadow right now thinking that someone else will take him out for sure. Well that someone else is them and if they continue to wait, Rob will likely ride this thing right to the end.
Jenna: The most likely beneficiary if there are any coup attempts. Jenna could pull this one out of the bag. Her greatest asset is the solid support from Rupert and her ability to ride under the radar. She can greatly increase her chances of winning through securing a final three deal with Alicia. When there are seven players left she could use that support, along with the remaining Mogo Mogo, to oust Rob and his cronies. Frankly, although ahead in points, I don't think Jenna has the strategic strength to do this as her opening strategy of mindlessly voting off winners showed. Even with that, Jenna could fall ass backwards into a win as she stands a good chance of making the final four with Rob. A timely immunity win and Rob could be gone and juries have certainly made stranger decisions. Personally, this last possibility represents the worse case scenario for me as to how this game could realistically end.
In the past, the winner has always come out of my top three picks and I have confidence that one of the three mentioned above is going to be a million dollars richer soon, but just for fun, lets go through the also-rans.
Rupert: The other half of Jenna but one not likely to do nearly as well as his ability to fly under the radar is very low. As well, Rupert seems to have shown a flawed concept on how to play the game, never pairing with anyone in Pearl Island and only making a default pairing with Jenna. He is not an alliance builder or a coup puller.
Tom: Big Tom is playing the exact same game he played in Africa, riding third to a dominant pair and not making any moves to secure support beyond that. This means his fate is almost surely to be the same one he had before. I'm looking forward to his jury question though.
Alicia: Alicia is in a damned if she does and damned if she doesn't situation. Likely her best alternative is to team up with Jenna and Rupert, if they'll take her. The problem is, I think everyone is scared to take her deep and I think her chances of making the final four are slim.
Kathy: She has the best chance of the Mogo Mogos, but that ain't saying a hell of a lot. Her greatest strength is the fact that she has the support of both Shii-Ann and Lex and if the merge can come along before Mogo Mogo manages to vote off any more of their members she should try and secure an alliance with Jenna and Rupert. Unfortunately, I don't think she is planning on doing anything of the sort as the running Mogo Mogo strategy seems to be sucking up to Rob. Guess what, guys? Rob doesn't need your help.
Shii Ann: I would say that she has played the worse game I have ever seen, but I still have one more player to talk about. I used to feel sorry for Shii Ann, when she was stuck in the brutal Sook Jai tribe last time, but this time we got a look at how the tribe functions when she is towards the top. Maybe I was too hasty blaming Penny and Jake for all of Sook Jai's woos.
Lex: Lex has played the worse game that I've seen. He's rock bottom in both points and position, and not just in this game but over all the survivors at this stage. That's quite an accomplishment consider he beat out players like Greg Buis. The one thing that Lex has shown us is that Ethan did indeed deserve to win Survivor-Africa just for the sole reason that he kept Lex from shooting not only himself in the foot, but everyone else around him. Too bad Ethan couldn't do the same thing this time.
HC's Call:
So when all is said and done, who is my call to win? Normally, I don't go against the numbers, but I can't ignore the fact that the only reason Amber is currently ahead of Rob is because of the goofy swap that happened in the previous episode, giving her one more opportunity to vote than Rob. When the race is half over, you should rarely not bet on the horse in the lead.
My Pick: Rob Mariano