TOM WESTMAN - A CASE STUDY
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Opening:
Voting strategy is dependent upon the social dynamics and relative strength of the individual players in the tribe. This is as much true at the beginning of the game as it is at the end and any discussion of strategy has to begin with a summary of the individual players in the tribe.
- Caryn: PP-player. Classic PP-player sitting in the wings and complaining about her inevitable demise later. Caryn formed an early relationship with Janu.
- Coby: AP-player. A smart and aggressive player but lacking in support. Formed an early relationship with Willard and Janu.
- Gregg: AP-player. An athletic and smart player. Formed an obvious and solid partnership with Jennifer but also with Ian, Tom and Katie.
- Ian: AP-player. Another smart and athletic player with leadership skills. Formed a strong relationship with Tom and Katie but also with Gregg and Jennifer.
- Janu: PP-player. Another PP and even less aggressive than Caryn. Janu formed a relationship with Coby and Willard but really seemed out of her element in this tribe.
- Jennifer: PP-player. Fromed an early relationship with Gregg and Katie but also with Ian and Tom. I find her a little tougher to rate because it was hard to tell whether she was just following Gregg's and Katie's lead or taking initiative herself. My guess is the former.
- Katie: AP-player. A stratigically a strong player though she can't compete with the three males when it comes to leadership and working around the camp.
- Tom: AP-player. Yet another type four in an incredibly strong tribe, Tom formed a strong relationship with Ian but also with Katie, Gregg and Jennifer. Tom was the dominant personality from the get go and set the tone for the tribe which more than happy to follow his lead.
- Willard: PP-player. Very tough to rate because Willard never really factored into this game.
D-players: Ian, Katie, Tom
T-players: Caryn, Coby, Gregg, Janu, Jennifer, Willard
The Koror tribe is likely the strategically strongest tribe to ever play the game. A likely source of this was that the players picked their own tribes in this season and strong players tend to be attracted to other strong players. Unfortunately, the reverse of this seems to work as well as Ulong, the tribe across the island, easily became one of the sadest tribes ever. It was not surprising to see Korror kick their butts. Korror went on to win ever single immunity challenge until the merge.
Tribal Council 1 - Day 12 - Boot: Willard
Votes:
Caryn, Coby, Gregg, Ian, Janu, Jennifer & Katie voted Willard
Willard voted Katie
Tom voted Willard
No immunity challenge loss here. This time both tribe went to tribal council. By the time this vote came down things were pretty much set in this tribe with a dominant five of Gregg, Ian, Jennifer, Katie and Tom completely calling the shots. Willard accomplishes two things: it sacrifices little as far as tribe strength and takes away Coby's closest ally. Coby is most certainly the biggest threat to the dominant players in this tribe but he's a popular one. An attack on him now would have been premature and likely to adversely effect tribe moral.
Rating: Good - Willard was Tom's best choice.
Early Middle-game:
With no immunity challenge losses and no swap, this tribe never went through this phase of the game.
Tribal Structure:
Caryn -> Janu
Coby -> Janu
Ian -> Katie
Katie -> Ian
Tom -> Ian
Janu -> Coby
Gregg -> Jennifer
Jennifer -> Gregg
N-players: Katie, Ian
D-Players: Tom
T-players: Caryn, Coby, Gregg, Janu & Jennifer
Watching this season it was so easy to just think of the fivesome of Katie, Ian, Tom, Gregg and Jennifer as just one group, but these were five aggressive players, five players that could each be contending to win given a different season. Here, they were not only all in one tribe, but all in one alliance and certainly each was trying to earn the upper hand over their mates. Understanding the later developments in this season really hinges on understanding this complicated quintet.
The core group is really Katie, Ian and Tom. They formed extremely early. It seems to me that Tom made the deal with Ian and then brought Katie in as the third. Ian, though making the deal with Tom, was also entertaining a deal with Katie and I really do believe that his plan from fairly early on was to be sitting opposite her in the final two. But it doesn't stop there, as I believe Katie also had a deal with Jennifer and Jennifer a deal with Greg. From Greg's and Jen's perspective, I think they say Tom as the fifth in this alliance but whether Jen saw herself opposite to Greg in the end or opposite Katie is completely unclear. Katie on the other hand showed by her later actions to always be planning to be opposite to Ian.
Circles inside circles and it was great to see so many players using their heads.
Late Middle-game:
Tribal Council 2 - Day 24 - Boot: Coby
In a sense the tribes merged though only one more player made her way into Tom's game from the former Ulong tribe.
- Stephanie: AU-player. Stephanie was a shoot from the dark type of player. She positioned herself within the dominant group within this tribe but didn't want to step forward as leader. Instead she and her group targeted leadership candidates within the tribe. Is there any wonder the tribe fell apart?
Tribal Structure:
I would say by this stage the plan by at least Katie, Jenn and Gregg was to get rid of Tom at five. Whether Ian was going to support this or not - it sure seems he did in a later episode - is irrelevant as at five, three vote was all that was needed. Ian would be forced to follow suit. This pushes Tom down to a T-player, perhaps he always was.
N-players: Katie, Ian
D-player: Jenn, Gregg
T-players: Tom, Caryn, Coby, Janu
M-player: Stephanie
Votes:
Caryn, Gregg, Ian, Jennifer, Katie & Stephanie voted Coby
Janu voted Stephanie
Coby voted Janu
Tom voted Coby
I think by this stage, Tom began to worry he was on shaky ground as he told Stephanie that he would protect her as long as he could. He was certainly looking forward further backup and I can only assume that he felt he wasn't getting it from enough members of his own alliance. The one T-player he wasn't going to get that support from, though, was Coby who was a solid player and would have turned on Tom as soon as the opportunity presented itself. Coby was easily the most dangerous player left in this game outside of the dominant five.
Rating: Great - Other than Tom, the only solid T-player left. Removing him simplifies the game and leaves players like Caryn, Janu and Stephanie to draw support from.
Tribal Council 3 - Day 30 - Boot: Stephanie
Votes:
Caryn, Gregg, Ian, Jennifer & Katie voted Stephanie
Stephanie voted Caryn
Tom voted Stephanie
There was no vote in the previous tribal council as Janu quit. With Gregg, Ian, Katie and Jennifer wanting to remove the tenacious Stephanie Tom is left with little choice but to follow suit.
Rating: Good - Time for Stephanie to go.
Tribal Council 4 - Day 33 - Boot: Gregg
Votes:
Caryn, Ian & Katie voted Gregg
Gregg & Jennifer voted Caryn
Tom voted Gregg.
Katie made a fatal error when she took Jennifer and Gregg along on a reward challenge instead of taking Ian. Ian began to suspect she was closer to these two than to himself and went to Tom for support. They came up with the plan to use Caryn to force a tie. Ian then did the very fine move of letting Katie know they were fully prepared to go to picking stones to determine who goes and she, very predictably - and understandably - decided to avoid the tie and help vote out Gregg outright. Afterall, she still had both Ian and Jennifer to draw from.
Rating: Brilliant - I love Tom's and Ian's willingness to calculate the risk and roll the dice. Wonderfully done.
Tribal Council 5 - Day 36 - Boot: Caryn
Votes:
Ian, Jennifer & Ian voted Caryn
Caryn voted Ian
Tom voted Caryn
Katie and Jennifer campaigned aggressively to get rid of Tom and brought Caryn into a female alliance - one a doubt would have held after Tom was gone - to vote Tom with the backup plan of voting Ian. Tom, however, won the immunity challenge and it was obvious that Katie was not prepared to throw away Ian's support and the vote shifted to Caryn
Rating: Good - Tom had little chance of turning this vote in another direction.
Endgame:
N-players: Ian & Katie
D-player: Jennifer
T-player: Tom
Tribal Council 6 - Day 37 - Boot: Jennifer
Votes:
Ian & Katie voted Jennifer
Jennifer voted Ian
Tom voted Ian
Tom won immunity a found out through a slip from Ian that was the one scheduled to go fourth. Tom decided to change his mind and vote Ian creating a tie. All the votes held in the revote - showing Katie was devoted to Ian afterall - and in a fire starting sudden death challenge between Jennifer and Ian, Jennifer lost and was gone.
Rating: Great - With no one left in the game that would take him into the final two Tom's best plan was to remove his greatest competition in Ian.
Tribal Council 7 - Day 38 - Boot: Ian
Votes:
Tom voted Ian
I very unique final immunity challenge took place here. As is typical, it was an endurance type challenge. Katie fell out early and Ian and Tom looked no where near giving in soon when Ian, obviously wracked with guilt having lied to both Tom and Katie, offered to step down if Tom would take Katie to the final two with him. Tom agreed.
Rating: Good - Easy vote.
Tribal Council 8 - Day 39 - Boot: Katie
Caryn, Gregg, Ian, Jennifer, Katie & Stephanie voted Coby
Janu voted Stephanie
Coby voted Janu
Votes for winner:
Caryn, Gregg, Ian, Janu, Jennifer & Stephanie voted Tom
Coby voted Katie
I really find Tom an interesting player. For one, he's the first T-player to pull out a win, by no stretch a small accomplishment. He did this by being objective and observant when it came to evaluating his position within the tribe. He judged people by their actions instead of their words and he reacted appropriately when it was called for, though certainly winning the final three immunity challenges was an integral component to his victory. What I especially found refreshing was the gamesmanship shown by the dominant five in this game. They were friends, but they didn't let that stop them from playing this game as hard as they could.
What I found a little unfortunate was the size of his victory. Though next to the overpower personality of Tom, Katie's case to win seemed pretty weak and I don't blame the jury for their votes, never the less she played a hell of a game, better than half the folks that have one in the past. Another player I particularly enjoyed was Ian who likely would have been the winner without Tom's timely immunity wins. It's too bad he couldn't stick to the course, especially Katie's course, with a little more conviction.
Grades:
Opening: B
Early Middle-game: NA
Late Middle-game: A+
Endgame: A-
Overall Voting Strategy: A-
Overall Social Strategy: B+
Comments: Tom was very highly respected by almost everyone to the point of intimidation. So much so that he had great difficulty getting other players to work with him when it came to voting strategy. Towards the end, his attempts to lead the voting verged on bullying. Leadership: B-, Social Ability: A
Overall Rating: A-