The Last Drought

Has Time Stood Still for 25 Years?

Charlottesville and Albemarle County imposed mandatory water conservation August 22 for the first time in “possibly a half century.” The two ordinances were identical and took effect the next calendar day for the 80,000 customers. The maximum penalty for wasting water is $500 and water shut-off (“Water Limits Enacted,” Aug. 23, 2002, Daily Progress).

Actually, the last mandatory water conservation was 1977. The ordinances were similar and took effect immediately with the same penalties applied to the 60,000 customers (“Mandatory Water Ordinances Enacted,” Oct. 8, 1977, Daily Progress). The restrictions remained in Albemarle for 34 days and a day longer in Charlottesville.

I was a 13-year-old student at Walker Middle School, lived across from Skate Town on Market St., delivered newspapers, and was interested in weather (B.S. Meteorology 1993). Unless noted, the referenced articles appeared in 1977 from September 1 to November 11 in The Daily Progress.

Now and Then

During today’s drought, Louisa was the only central Virginia county without mandatory conservation until the governor mandated state-wide conservation (“Warner imposes water restrictions,” Aug. 31, 2002, Richmond Times-Dispatch).

In 1977, Louisa was hit hard (“Dry Louisa Town Gets Help in New Water Well,” Sep. 2; “Drought Closes Louisa Schools,” Sep. 6; “Louisa Hits Water, May Open Schools,” Sep. 9; “Louisa Will Build Reservoir,” Nov. 8).

Orange has been seriously affected in the current drought. “The Town Council first discussed building a reservoir in 1947, but the proposal to buy land was turned down for reasons no one in the current town administration seems to know" (“Inaction on water issue leads Orange down familiar path,” Sep. 1, 2002).

In this and the last drought, Scottsville, supplied by Totier Creek Dam, and Crozet, Beaver Creek Dam, have called for voluntary conservation.

In the current drought, the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority promoted a “10 for 10” campaign, ten tips for ten percent reduction in water use. In 1977, the RWSA called for 15-20% reduction in demand. WCHV AM-1260 radio hosted a competition for the best conservation tip (“More Than a Contest,” Oct. 28).

During the current water shortage, the RWSA used percentage of capacity to gauge the severity of the drought. Reserves reached their lowest point last November at 68% then began rising without any rain. According to RWSA last year, 65% would trigger mandatory conservation. That trigger is 70% now.

In 1977, days of supply at projected demand were estimated for each of the reservoirs. Because of sedimentation and increased demand, it is difficult to determine which conservation ordinance was the more urgent. Days remaining seems the more meaningful, comparative measure.

Then as now, Charlottesville and urban Albemarle were served by four water impoundments: Lower and Upper Ragged Mountain, Sugar Hollow, and South Rivanna reservoirs.

In 1977, several large, front page photos displayed scary reservoirs (“Our Water Is Drying Up,” Sep. 28; “Only Mud at Sugar Hollow,” Oct. 6; “The Sign of Things to Come,” Oct. 21).

Water quality became a concern as water volume decreased (“Cleaning the Water,” “Turning Foul Water Into Something Fit for Human Consumption,” Oct. 16; “Mystery Muck,” Oct. 29).

In 1977, a graph of seven-day average water demand appeared on the front page (“Water Consumption Drops as Conservation Takes Hold,” Oct. 12). Similar charts have not appeared in the local mainstream press during the current drought.

The last drought ended with heavy rains locally and flooding regionally but authorities resisted lifting restrictions. (“Southwest Cleaning Up Again: Flash Flooding Routs Hundreds,” Oct. 3; “Water Savings Expected to Lead to Higher Rates,” Oct. 30; “Reservoir Levels Up, Water Use Declines,” Nov. 1; “Light Rain Adds Two Inches To Hungry Rivanna River,” Nov. 3; “Further Water Cutbacks Eyed,” Nov. 4; “Rain Fills Reservoirs; Water Curbs May Stay,” “Flood Watch Posted,” Nov. 6; “Georgia Flooding Kills 37: Wall of Water Bursts From Toccoa Dam,” “Virginia Rivers Jump Banks,” “New Look at the Sugar Hollow Reservoir,” Nov. 7; “Damage in Millions, Many Homeless in Va. Flooding,” Nov. 8; “Curbs On Water Lifted,” “The Drought’s Over…..But Look at the Basement,” Nov. 10; “Curbs on Water Removed By City,” Nov. 11.)

Current Affairs

Terrorists were hijacking planes but not flying them into buildings. President Jimmy Carter “gave away” the Panama Canal. The Allen Bakke reverse discrimination case was being litigated. G. Gordon Liddy was fresh out of prison. Roots won a string of Emmies. Crooner Bing Crosby passed away. The northeast U.S. saw massive blackouts.

John Dalton defeated Henry Howell for governor. Charles Robb defeated Joe Canada for lieutenant governor (“Dalton’s Margin 150,000,” Nov. 11). Five state bonds were approved.

A challenger and incumbent were elected to the Albemarle County Board of Supervisors (“Reservoir Dominant Albemarle Issue,” Nov. 6; “Lindstrom Upsets Carr; Fisher Wins,” Nov. 9).

The city and county jointly purchased the old downtown post office to become a regional library (“Post Office Sale Signed,” Oct. 11). The county did not trust the city (“County, City Still Holding Hands,” Oct. 26) but they both talked of one centralized government (“City, County Executives See Makings of Merger,” Oct. 12 by Karen Lowe).

Regional transportation was born (“JAUNT Offers Public a Ride,” Sep. 14). Teenagers were assaulting pedestrians near the University (“6 Seized In Attacks Near UVa,” Oct. 20). City Schools were unpopular (“City Schools Face Enrollment Drop,” Sep. 9). The SPCA held a charity fair at Barracks Road Shopping Center October 7-8.

Urban renewal was in full swing. There was a move to split the Charlottesville Redevelopment and Housing Authority and bring Housing under direct control of City Council (“Housing Board Change Argued: Council Split,” Oct. 14). If successful, the separation of the independent agency’s two functions, property purchase (Housing) and resale (Redevelopment), might have minimized the impact of renewal.

City Council delayed discussion of the proposal and approval by the General Assembly was needed (“City Council Will Weigh Housing Authority Control,” Sep. 3; “Authority Hearing Postponed,” Sep. 30; “City Puts Off Housing Authority Shift,” Oct. 18). Today, the Housing Authority remains intact.

The mayor wanted a second Elderly high-rise at the top of Vinegar Hill at then City Market, site of the old Midway School. The Authority wanted it in the “Garrett Street urban renewal area.” Housing Authority Board Chairman Richard C. Collins said “‘the benefits of home ownership’ were being exaggerated” and “‘it’s a sham’ for people to think everyone can afford to own their home” (“Price of Highrise Site Set by Council: Midway Location Chosen,” Sep. 13).

The Housing Authority came within two days of losing a $6.2 million grant “to construct a 58-unit housing project on First Street and four other smaller complexes scattered around the city” (“City Housing Grant Okayed,” Sep. 30).

Rule of Law was not absolute. After lengthy debate, car washes and acid brick cleaning were exempted in the city (“Car Wash: New Law May Hurt Business,” Oct.9; “Council Exempts 6 Firms,” Oct.18). The county opposed then allowed the exemptions (“County Opposes Water Exceptions,” Oct. 20; “Car Wash Businesses Exempted,” Nov. 3). In the current drought, the exemp-tions are routine.

On-street permit parking had been banned by the Va. Supreme Court. Signs came down and went back up when the U.S. Supreme Court over-turned the ruling (“City Takes Wait, See Attitude on Permit Parking Decision: State Court Overturned,” Oct. 12).

There was much talk about “economic development,” “revitalization,” “com-prehensive plan,” and “quality of life.” WINA AM-1070 radio had opinions (“Need for Economic Development,” Oct. 15).

Some of the Players

Mills Godwin was governor, best-known for his 40-hour work week decree in the extended record cold and energy crisis of the winter of ’76-’77.
Nancy K. Obrien was mayor, now active in the effort to save Jefferson School from her own Democratic party.
Francis H. Fife was vice mayor (“Vice Mayor Goes Jogging, Loses Pants,” Nov. 11). He presently serves as member of the board of directors of Advocates for a Sustainable Albemarle Population (“Group opposes county growth,” Sep. 2, 2002).
Cole Hendrix was city manager. He served as seven-month interim executive director of RWSA, RSWA last year.
Eugene K. Potter, Jr. was RWSA operations director. Today, Potter continues as water authority director.
Satyendra Huja was and is city planner.
Richard C. Collins was Housing Authority board chairman. “Rich Collins” is director of UVa’s Institute of Environmental Negotiations (“Group opposes county growth,” Sep. 2, 2002).
Robert Hodous was member of the Housing Authority board. He is now chairman of the Charlottesville Republican Committee.
Kay Peaslee wrote a letter to the Progress (“Measures Inadequate to Protect Reservoir,” Sep. 14). She founded The Observer, now published by Jeffrey M. Peyton.
Bob Gibson reported on crimes small- time and big. He still works at the Progress and writes about state-wide politics.

Climatology

The expert was wrong. As soon as State Climatologist Bruce P. Hayden predicted persistent drought, the pattern changed to abundant rainfall ("Severe Record Drought Expected to Continue," Oct. 4). Current State Climatologist Patrick Michaels has downplayed the severity of the present 3 to 4 year drought.

If we define drought as rainfall deficit from "normal," that belief requires devastating floods before the drought can be over. Take this hypothetical.

Your region needs 20 inches of rain spread evenly over 30 days to recharge completely groundwater and reservoirs. Suppose no rain falls for the first ten months of the year, the worst drought on record by far. Then 20 inches fall in November. The ground is saturated. Is the drought over? You're still 20 inches below normal for the year. If you get 20 inches of rain in December, you will wish for drought.

Historically, flood is a greater threat here than drought. A 45-day dry spell is rare enough that it makes news. Charlottesville and Albemarle have less water now than in 1977 because of sedimentation. We have the same reservoirs and higher demand. We run completely out of water if it doesn't rain at all for 4 or 5 months.

The last drought is why mandatory conservation now is premature. If authorities had waited a few more weeks in both cases, the rains would have come before mandatory conservation. As you would expect according to the climate, we now seem to be in a wetter pattern.

To save money and effort, authorities should consider letting things get a little worse before stepping in. It may seem counter-intuitive. But next time, let the water supply go to 50 percent. If we get that low, then something big might have happened to the weather.

Or possibly, floods are just around the corner.
— Blair Hawkins
Posted Sep. 8, 2002.

Drought Perspective - Issue 2.

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