Life,
the Universe, and Strat-O-Matic
Volume I, Number 1
January 8, 2001
Who do I take with my first round pick? A
common question each year in a draft league. Since Darryl Kile was cut two
years ago after allowing all those dingers in Coors Field, he’s suddenly one of
the best pitchers available in this year’s draft. On the other hand, Jon Rauch
is one of the most highly-toted future stars. So who should you go after?
A big mistake many a manager will make is
to think he can turn a rag-tag bunch into a contender every year through the
draft. If your league has only 6-8 teams, this may not be so far-fetched.
However, once you hit 10 or more teams, especially if you keep 40 or more –man
rosters, it is highly unlikely you’ll find enough players to fill multiple
holes. There are bound to be at least 2 or 3 teams who lack only a starting
pitcher and half a bullpen, or 1 outfielder, a backup catcher and a leftie
reliever. So what do you do?
SWOT (No, Not the
‘70’s Cop Show)
Before entering the draft, the first
thing you should do is, what is commonly used in MBA classes, a SWOT analysis
of your team – Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats. Who are your
stars, at what positions are you lacking, where can you improve for the current
season and/or the future, and who are your biggest opponents, and what holes do
their teams have? These are the questions you need to answer when evaluating
your team. Once you’ve made these assessments, then, and only then, should you
make your draft preparations.
There are several strategies to use in
drafting. If your team is solid, with 2 or 3 holes to fill (i.e. a backup
catcher, a 3rd starter, a first baseman, a 2nd leftie reliever),
then by all means try to win this year. If you can get Ryan Dempster to finish
out your rotation, that’s great. Not only is he good this year, but he’s a
legitimate prospect for future years too. On the other hand, if he’s not
available Darryl Kile might fit the bill, even though it’s questionable about
his future value. It’s always nice to draft a Pedro Martinez his rookie year,
pitch him then, and continue pitching him for years to come. But sometimes ya
gotta go with the best card to help you win, and worry about the future next
year.
Don’t make the mistake, though, of
drafting Darryl Kile when you only have Omar Olivares, Sidney Ponson and David
Cone to finish out your rotation, and Derrek Lee is your only hitter with
double-digit homeruns. Especially when you’ll face teams with a rotation of
Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton and Greg Maddux as its top 3 hurlers, with Carlos
Delgado, Manny Ramirez, Jorge Posada and Chipper Jones in the middle of the
lineup. In this case, you might be better off with Brad Penny, who won’t help
you much this year, but has half a year of major league experience and looks to
be a solid part of the Marlins rotation.
No one likes to lose, and it’s always
tough to play a season knowing you won’t win many games. But why doom your team
to a series of mediocre years where a .500 finish might be an accomplishment?
Don’t draft Craig Paquette just because he’s the only 3B out there who has a
half-decent card. Suffer the year with Joe McEwing hitting below the Mendoza
line while you draft Joe Crede, who will hopefully stock the corner for you in
a couple of seasons. If you don’t have a definite chance at making, and winning
in, the playoffs, it’s sometimes better to play for the draft pick to improve
your team in seasons to come. Now, I am in no way condoning throwing games. You
should always play each individual game to win; it’s your draft that should
determine if you’ll be contender or spoiler.
Currently, I am involved in 3 leagues,
each one run a little different, and with differing circumstances which have
affected my draft strategies in each. My first draft this year came in a
16-team league, in which last year I inherited one of the most motley bunch of
stiffs I’ve ever seen. By trading off the handful of even remotely useful
players I had, I accumulated draft picks, young players who may have had an off
year, and some minor-league and first-year major league prospects. The team
actually has a solid offense, including the likes of Bobby Higginson, Ray
Durham, Eric Chavez and Jacques Jones. The problem is, Jeff Suppan is one of my
better starting pitchers. Ouch.
Come draft time, rather than grab Rick
White or Kirk Reuter, who, while they possess some value for the short term
have little real future value, I drafted very few players who will even get
cards this year. I tried to scarf up as many of the top prospects from various
teams and minor leagues as I could. I call it the 3-5 year plan for rebuilding
the team. If I get lucky and actually have a pitching staff next year I might
be able to compete. But since I’m not counting on it, I will most likely
continue taking prospects next year in hopes that my team as a whole will
mature and turn into a force 3 or 4 years down the road. Then I would look more
at a Darryl Kile for what may be his last useful card to help me win one
season.
A second league I participate in
currently has an interesting situation. We are expanding next season from 10 to
14 teams. Because the existing teams stand to lose players in expansion next
year, my strategy for this league is to grab the best cards that will help my
team win. I already have a solid core of players and pitchers including Carlos
Delgado, Troy Glaus, Manny Ramirez, Jason Kendall, Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada,
Kris Benson and Robb Nen to name a few. Thus far, my picks have been the best
players to fill the gaps I had. They included Jon Lieber’s 251 innings, Mike
Myers, one of the best lefty relievers in the draft, and Byung-Hyun Kim, with
111 K’s in 70 IP.
While Kim is actually a
prospect as well as a usable card, I wouldn’t be surprised if my
Cuts next year include
Myers and Lieber. For this league, I fully plan on winning it all this year, and
have no intention of stocking the new teams by filling my roster with
prospects, some of whom could be lost in expansion.
My third league includes another
wild-card factor, a salary cap. Since I have several of the highest paid
players in baseball, including Delgado, Piazza, Clemens, Hampton, Juan
Gonzalez, but I have arguably one of the best teams in the league, my strategy
will fall somewhere in between. I’ll be looking to fill the couple holes I
have, such as an outfielder and some bullpen pitchers, while trying to pick up
some prospects to take the place of these costly veterans, some of whom I will
soon be forced to part with for lack of funds. Fortunately, I have a strong
rotation coming back with the likes of Clemens, Hampton, Ankiel, Benson,
Millwood and Woody Williams. Thus, Darryl Kile, who is in the draft, won’t be a
priority on my list, as he earns several million $. On the other hand, some
youngster who only threw 115 IP, but makes $250,000 and has a decent card will
be more than enough to supplement my staff, and give me room to trade an
overpriced arm to solidify my team in another area, or to free up some salary.
A couple of years ago I had one of the
most potent offenses in this league. Piazza hitting around .330 with 40 HR
power, Sosa’s 65 HR year, Cirillo’s .335 average, Delgado’s .285 with 50 double
and 40 HR power. But, alas, I had no pitching whatsoever. I had the 2nd
pick in the draft that year and passed up Kenny Rogers’ best card ever and Pete
Harnisch’s big comeback card with the Reds. Instead, I took a rookie Kevin
Millwood. Had I selected one of those other pitchers, he might have won 15
games for me, but the rest of my staff would still have lost more than 90
games. So, I had fun wracking up more than 300 HR’s and allowing several more
than I hit as a team. This year, Millwood has 20 wins to lead my staff (we’re
still finishing the 2000 season) and I am practically a shoe-in for the
playoffs. By accepting the inevitable defeat for one year, I help secure an
excellent chance of victory the next.
Ultimately, you have to look at the needs
of your team and the feasibility of fulfilling those needs in the draft when
trying to select the best players for your squad. Factors like salary caps and
expansion will have an affect on the draft, as will any other special rules
your league may have. But the most important thing to look at remains: “After
the draft, will my team really have what it takes to win it all?” If the answer
is probably not, you should consider looking to seasons down the road rather
than struggling to sneak in as the last playoff team, only to get swept in the
first round by a Yankee-like band of All-Stars, and ending up with a worse spot
in the draft next year.
“Life, the Universe
and Strat-O-Matic” was written and
conceived by Alan May
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