Do It Yourself with Bruce Bundy

Do It Yourself with Bruce Bundy
Brad Woodall

SOM gamer Bruce Bundy is incredible. He's created a number of formulas that help usunderstand the SOM baseball cards. This article contains Bruce's thoughts on theformulas, some of the predictions using the formulas, and the actual formulas themselves.You can also find Bruce's SOM Team Defense Chart at www.oocities.org/dailystrat - Thischart will help you with calculating the relative worth of pitchers.

Bruce, at the SOMWORLD discussion boards, writes this:
"I have created some 48 formulas already for the replication of a strat card. I think myefforts are pretty exacted. But I also know that my time invested is a mere "blink of aneye" compared to the SOM. I know this just from working with the formulae. So when Stevesays "Special formulas", he means it. John Dewan, owner of Stats, Inc., is a long time SOM player. His company makes up special databases for SOM. These are "secret sauses". They earn their money doing what they do very well, I think. Having played a major role in
reformulating the SOM cards has taught me alot - and not all formulas are meant to be broken. Is good - we want SOM to keep their formulas a secret - it keeps them going!"

Here's what Bruce wrote when he started the project.
"Card prognostication is a Pandora's Box to avid Strat players. Newspaper statistics alone will cripple you at draft time. It's time to give our Stratfans the ability to convert published statistics into SOM numbers. Beware! Such knowledge has been found to lopside and destroy leagues of all tenure. Use with discretion. Be patient! To bring every-body along, we'll play it one game at a time. First, we will lay a firm foundation in math basics. Be alert! Harold Richman isn't writing this column. There are hundreds of aspects to deal with in card forecasting. With your help, we can expect a 95 percent accuracy in all formulas presented here. This is a knowledge pool. If you've got a good formula or idea, let us know. A bit of warmth from this journalist: I've played SOM for 20-plus years. My wife has two children and myself to deal with as I work 100 hours a
week, then brave the fires of SOM countless times. I have all SOM football cards from '67
to '85 and my buddy has all the baseball cards. Forecasting SOM cards accurately is an
edge, not a guarantee. The game is all in the dice. If they roll your way, you win; if
they don't, you lose. You've been warned: It's time to open Pandora's Box."

While, Bruce's formula aren't the actual formulas used by the company. They're pretty
close and they provide a little insight into how the SOM cards are made.

I used Formula #14 to get an idea of what the SS e-ratings will look like for the 2000
set. The ratings book will be out in a week or so and we'll see how close I got.

Alex Rodriguez e11
Derek Jeter e27
Neifi Perez e19
Damian Jackson e39
Rey Sanchez e5
Miguel Tejada e22
Rafael Furcal e40
Nomar Garciaparra e22
Omar Vizquel e3
Edgar Renteria e31
Mike Bordick e18
Barry Larkin e19

Here are Bruce's Formulas. Have fun with them.

FORMULA #1: BATTER'S WALK
somW = (((W - IW) * 216) / (AB + ( W - IW) + HBP)) -9

FORMULA #2: HIT BY PITCH
somHBP = ((HBP * 216) / (AB + (W - IW) + HBP))

FORMULA #3: BATTER'S HIT
somH = ((( BA - .265 ) + BA ) * ( 108 - ( somW + somHBP )

FORMULA #4: BATTER'S DOUBLE
somD = (( 4320 * DOUBLE ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) - 90

FORMULA #5: BATTER'S TRIPLE
somT = (( 4320 * TRIPLE ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) - 15

FORMULA #6: BATTER'S HOMERUN
somHR = (( 4320 * HOMERUN ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) - 50

FORMULA #7: BATTER'S PATTERN CHART
see previous articles

FORMULA #8: BATTER'S STRIKEOUT
somK = (( K * 216 ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP )) -17

FORMULA #9: BATTER'S GBA
somGBA = (( 1140 * DP ) / ( AB + ( W - IW ) + HBP )

FORMULA #10: BATTER'S 1ST SB LEAD #
som1SB = (( SB / ( SB + CS )) + .13 ) * 20

FORMULA #11: BATTER'S 2ND SB LEAD #
som2SB = ( 1SB / 3 ) +1

FORMULA #12: BATTER'S LEAD CHANCES
somSBlead = (36 * ( SB + CS )) / ((( H + ( W - IW ) + HBP ) * .85 ) - ( D + T + HR ))

FORMULA #13: ASTERISKS
som* = @IF ( 1SB + SBlead ) > 24

FORMULA #14: FIELDING ERRORS
somE = ( E * 1458 ) / INNINGS FIELDED ( at that pos )
NOTE: LF, CF, & RF is all added together to make OUTFIELDER

FORMULA #15: PITCHER'S TBF
pTBF = ( IP * 2.95 ) + HITS + ( W - IW )

FORMULA #16: PITCHER'S WALK
sompW = (( W - IW ) * 216 ) / ( TBF - IW )) - 9

FORMULA #17a: PITCHER'S HIT
sompH = ((( HIT / TBF ) * 216 ) - 29.4 ) + XF
(XF = Xchart FACTOR; DEFAULT = 4.9)

FORMULA #17b: PITCHER'S HIT
sompH = ((( HIT * ( 168 - sompW ) / (( TBF - IW ) * .265)) + (((( 2 * oppBA ) - .265 ) *
30 ) - XF)

FORMULA #18: PITCHER'S DOUBLE
sompD = (( D * 216 ) / (TBF - IW )) - 90

PRE 1990 FORMULA #18
psomD = psomHR * 1.8

FORMULA #19: PITCHER'S TRIPLE
sompT = (( T * 216 ) / (TBF - IW )) - 15

PRE 1990 FORMULA #19
sompT = sompHR * .4

FORMULA #20: PITCHER'S HOMERUN
sompHR = (( HR * 216 ) / (TBF - IW)) - 50

FORMULA #20: PITCHER'S PATTERN CHART
see previous issue

FORMULA #21: PITCHER'S STRIKEOUT
sompK = (( K * 216 ) / ( TBF - IW ))

FORMULA #22: PITCHER'S HOLD
sompHOLD = (( SB / ( SB + CS )) - .6666 ) * 20

FORMULA #23: PITCHER'S POINT OF WEAKNESS
sompPOW = IP / APP

FORMULA #24: PITCHER'S ERROR
sompERROR = ( E * 1458 ) / IP

FORMULA #25: PITCHER'S BALK
sompBALK = ( BALK * 290 ) / IP

FORMULA #26: PITCHER'S WILDPITCH
sompWILDPITCH = ( WP * 200 ) / IP

FORMULA #27: PITCHER'S CLOSER RATINGS
sompCLOSE =0=N; 1-3=0; 4-6=1; 7-9=2; 10-14=3; 15-19=4; 20-29=5; >30=6

FORMULAS #28:W POWER HR ADJUSTMENT
somHR = (((leagueHR/leaguePA)*20)*(108-somHBP-somW))+somHR(under 10)

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