The Advertiser, 28 September 2005
Terror expert warns of JI attack
By Max Blenkin
THE Indonesian terror group behind the Bali bombing could be planning another attack
soon, an Australian terror expert said today.
Jemaah Islamiah (JI) appeared to be undergoing a split but its hardline elements
remained dangerous, Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) program director
Aldo Borgu said.
JI had been hard hit in the post-Bali bombing crackdown but it could still carry out
terror attacks, he said.
"But, importantly, it's still got the capability ... to undertake annual attacks," he said.
"There is still a possibility that one might be in the offing some time soon."
The al-Qaeda-linked JI bombed two Kuta nightclubs in October 2002 killing 202
people, including 88 Australians.
It was also behind the Jakarta Marriott Hotel attack in August 2003 which killed 11
people, and the Australian embassy attack in September last year which also killed
11 people.
The dates indicate an operational cycle of about 12 months.
In an ASPI report on terrorism in Indonesia, Mr Borgu and Australian National
University Indonesia expert Greg Fealy noted that JI, founded in 1993, was
South-East Asia's largest and most sophisticated terror network.
But evidence was emerging of a internal split between hardline elements who favoured
mass casualty attacks and the central leadership who favoured a return to the original
vision of achieving an Islamic state by more gradual means.
Should JI's non-bombers emerge on top, they would probably return to their 25- to
30-year plan for an Islamic state using preaching, education and military training to
defend against attacks from infidel forces, Dr Fealy said.
"However, there is a risk here. Once you give people military training in how to make
bombs and do assassinations, they may not be patient enough to wait for the
realisation of your 30-year plan," he said.
"They may want to go out and do something next month. They may well be very angry
and alienated people.
"JI is becoming less of a lethal threat. The threat is now in other kinds of networks
that the bombers have moved to. They are recruiting from groups who have been
closely involved in the Muslim-Christian conflicts in places like Maluku and Central
Sulawesi."
Dr Fealy said this would mean more scattered terror networks.
"They (security organisations) have to be open to the possibility that people they've
never heard of before can in a very short space of time be recruited to an operation
and become the foot soldiers in a major terrorism attack," he said.
Mr Borgu said future JI operations could have more to do with sectarian and
communal conflict and that could more directly threaten Indonesian national stability.
"One of the things that has characterised JI over the last five years is that it hasn't
directly attacked the Indonesian state," he said.
"If that does change, in some respects it could actually be a greater challenge to
Australia's interests that directly targeting individual Australian citizens."
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