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Bilibala 講股仔 - China Mobile (CHL/0941)

Company info: China Mobile just published its 3Q results, with significant figures only, not its finl stmt. Reveune up 21.5%, EBITDA up 14.9% and profit up 29.8%, meet my expectation. ARPU remain at $89 as semi 2Q, which above my expectation. One interesting question is: why reveune & profit up +20% and EBITDA only up 15%? Tax and interest are pretty stable, I guess there is an significant increased in depreciation & amortization in 3Q07 to pull off the EBITDA. Again, I am lack of information to do further analysis on this.

Financial data: P/E ratio 43.22, forward P/E 34.3, PEG 1.66, all the data looks kind of risky now, expect return on equity improved to 23.2%, SMS service up 43%.

Sector info: Telecom is one of the government support sector, and CHL is the monoply has over 65% market shares. China's mobile subscribers is only 40% of population compare to +90% in developed countries, growth in subscribers in the coming 5 years is expected. Add'l service such as mp3, sms, email, online and 3G growth should be strong too.

Outlook: 1) govt would like to develop 3G in 8 cities before Olympic; 2) China Mobile may issue A shares (not cuz no $$, but forward the marco policy); 3) continue to growth in country side.

Risk: 1) price rise $76 to $152 (last week) or 100% in less than 2 months, kind of too rapid; 2) government encourage competition, may split China Unicom and merge with China Telcom & Webcom which may impact CHL's market share 3) CHL was being pushed by govt to acquire oversea telecom business, there is a risk to acquire overvalue and unporfitable ones, but this can be control by management.

Conclusion: my target price will remain at $140 and current price is $142.2, and i will give it a "hold".

Any conflict? Yes, I hold CHL in my portfolio.


2007-10-22 16:28:51 GMT
     


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