Billy's Bilibala Blog
跟祢移動,方覺受用
估市 Gimme 5 : 10月去向

恒指終於升破 27000點, 中資金融,電訊,石油股同地產股都升左, 依家輪到電力股都升埋一份. 第三次煤電聯動還未出台(reveune stay), 煤價繼續升(cost up)而電廠繼續建(supply up), 仲有稅率由 15%加到25%(profit drop), 種種不利因素之下都可以令電力股升 20%-30%, 想來升市己進入第三浪. 恒指自8月16日起由最低 19,500點, 升至9月尾27,000點, 個半月升38%, 都係時侯調整下. 我太細膽, 唔敢沽移動(0941)同國壽(2628), 不過在$10.3-$10.5沽出所有華能(0902), keep番D cash, 進可攻退可守. 我相信在依家直到 QDII 以及直通車「既濟未濟」之間, 大市應該會有1000-2000點調整. 好比劉翔一口氣跑完十個百米跨欄比賽, 唔死得, 但都要休息下啦, 何况個市 non-stop咁升咁多? 不過世事難料, 還是凡事交託罷.




2007-09-29 20:59:19 GMT
Comments (3 total)
Author:Anonymous
其實我認爲,吾好嘗試去分升市第幾浪,嘗試找規律...

每次原因都唔同,
2007-09-29 21:29:34 GMT
Author:Anonymous
我認爲,除非你好有信心 個市會向下調一定幅度(如果僅僅一兩千點調整,個价依然偏離合理价,你亦吾會有膽買入),otherwise,不變應萬變係最好,短期波幅會令人太傷神...有錢都無福消受...

個市長綫依然向好,hold 住 起碼有股息分...
--Lok
2007-09-29 22:23:40 GMT
Author:Anonymous
Lok: thanks for reading & your response. I totally agree with the "buy & hold" approach and tell you honestly , you are right, I dunno whether the market will fall in Oct or not. That's just my wish or guess. 股市 = 估市嘛 :P

I also have a tax concern. Each year, My mum has CA$9,000 basic tax credit, which means I can report CA$15,000 - CA$18,000 capital gain / dividend income without paying any tax, therefore, thanks to the government, I can't follow the "buy & hold" theory completely. I need to buy & sell to realized some gains and buy back (hopefully at a lower price), so i won't have a 1 time hit in future.

Too bad we are in Canada :(
But Thx God we have capital gain :)
That's why we have a tax concern :P
--Bilibala
2007-09-30 02:15:43 GMT
     


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