Lok Sabha 2004:
State-by-State Assessment and Data


POST-LS ELECTIONS (2005 Update)

Jharkhand - In what has become a national political crisis, Jharkhand's governor appointed JMM Chief Shibu Soren as Chief Minister, immediately after the NDA combine, led by Arjun Munda, presented 41 MLA's who expressed their support. The Congress Party, accused of engineering the formation, has received major criticism for autocratic tendencies from the mainstream media. The NDA smuggled out all 41 of its MLA's to Delhi to repeat the 1984 demonstration by NT Rama Rao, TDP CM of Andhra Pradesh, who proved his majority in front of the President.

Bihar - Infighting between the three UPA allies saw the BJP-JD(U) combine emerging as the biggest alliance in 2005. The LJP still does not want to have anything to do with the BJP or RJD, despite forming part of the NDA under Vajpayee and being part of the UPA with Yadav. The BJP-JD(U)has projected JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar as its CM, and the RJD, with the support of the Congress and other socialist parties, has decided on Rabri Devi taking the reins again. Whatever Ram Vilas Paswan decides will decide the fate of the state. President's Rule has been introduced until that decision can be made.

Haryana - Congress received a clear majority in a wave of anti-incumbency against the INLD Government under Om Prakash Chautala. INLD still managed to end as a formidable opposition, while the BJP performed disastrously. Ending weeks of mystery, Sonia Gandhi and other Congress leaders decided on Bhupinder Singh Hooda as the new Chief Minister.

Goa - After ruling for 5 years, the BJP's Manohar Parrikar government was dismissed as it attempted to prove its majority in the Assembly, and a Congress government under Pratap Singh Rane was introduced. The Governor of the state, coming under increasing pressure, especially with the Jharkhand episode, asked for President's Rule until elections to five constituencies are held, from which the BJP's MLA's had resigned.

Madhya Pradesh - In a political drama, the Central Government went after Chief Minister Uma Bharati, who resigned her post in late 2004 and used the charges of 'unveiling the tricolor' as part of her moralizing efforts in the BJP. She appointed Babulal Gaur as her successor, and he was easily confirmed into the post. However, once the charges against her were finally dropped, with the Opposition feeling negative reaction against its actions, the BJP Central Governance did not wish to see her return. However, Uma has a very strong support base among the BJP's Madhya Pradesh MLA's, and she is not likely to sit quietly.

Arunachal Pradesh - After the Lok Sabha Elections, CM Gegong Apang decided to go back to the Congress in a shock move. In the 2004 Assembly elections, Congress received a thin majority with 34/60 seats. The upside for the BJP is that it still has the state's 2 Lok Sabha seats, and for the first time, it made a presence in the Assembly, winning 9 out of the 39 seats it was able to find contestants for at the last minute. Independents won 13 of the seats.

Maharashtra - After a tie between the two alliances in the LS Elections, the Congress-NCP combine marginally performed better (140/288 seats), and with the help of some others, it staked the claim to form the new government. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine received 116 seats, foiling its hope of returning to power in the state amidst storng anti-incumbency against the current regime. Vilasrao Deshmukh replaced sitting CM Shinde, after being ousted in 2003 by factionalism.


Andhra Pradesh (42 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: YS Rajasekhara Reddy
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress-TRS Allianced (Elected May 2004)
OPPOSITION: Telugu Desam Party-BJP
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
TDP5
TRS5
INC29
CPI1
CPM1
AIMIM1
Heavyweights:
Union Minister Bandaru Dattatraya (BJP) lost from Secundarabad
Union Minister C.V. Rao (BJP) lost from Karminagar

Assessment: With the BJP taken down to 0 LS seats and only 2 Assembly seats, its one Southern Gateway has been closed, and the state saw the biggest transfer of power between the two formations at the centre, with the TDP left with a measly 5 LS seats. On the other hand, the INC has much to cheer about, making a slam dunk in the Assembly and also in the LS. The TRS may cause pains down the road if there separate Telenagana state demand is not met, but the Congress has a clear majority without the TRS' support, something it could not do in other states. The TDP still kept some power in its traditional strongholds, but the new government will have to balance Andhra's old and new, or Mr. Chandrababu Naidu could be back in power 5 years down the line.

Arunachal Pradesh
CHIEF MINISTER: Gegong Apang
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress (2004)
OPPOSITION: BJP, Independents
Next Elections: 2009
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP2
Assessment: Ever since the BJP subverted the state government, it has something to smile about in the otherwise sensitive border state. The BJP grabbed both Lok Sabha seats, but Gegong Apang had a surprise for the party just before the elections, as he subverted back to the Congress Party, easily winning re-election. The BJP's only consolation was opening its own account of MLA's.

Assam (14 seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Tarun Gogoi
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress (2001)
OPPOSITION: Asom Gana Parishad, BJP
Next Elections: 2006
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP2
AGP2
INC9
Heavyweights:
Bhupen Hazarika (BJP) lost from Gauhati

Assessment: Despite a heavy publicity campaign in the Northeast, the BJP could not make the inroads in Assam that it was expected to do. Dumping the AGP was probably the wrong way to go. Had the BJP-AGP come together, the combined effort would have taken some more seats from the Congress. In the 2006 elections, despite hesitation in factions of both parties, the combine could come together to rout the Congress.

Bihar (37 seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: President's Rule
STATE GOVERNMENT: President's Rule (Since March 2005)
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
RJD19
BJP5
JD(U)6
INC3
LJP4
Heavyweights:
Union Minister Shahnawaz Hussain (BJP) lost from Kishanganj
Union Minister Rajeev Pratap Rudy (BJP) lost form Chapra

Assessment: In perhaps the most publicized case of poor election security, massive accusations of poll-capturing, criminal candidates, caste division for votes, etc. were in place. Despite predictions of an anti-incumbent mood against the RJD which would give the BJP-JD(U) combine an even better standing in the state, the voters gave back the RJD power after a beating in the 1999 elections. Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan took on roles in the cabinet, but infighting between the three UPA allies saw the BJP-JD(U) combine emerging as the biggest alliance in 2005 Assembly Elections. The LJP still does not want to have anything to do with the BJP or RJD, despite forming part of the NDA under Vajpayee and being part of the UPA with Yadav and the Congress. The BJP-JD(U)has projected JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar as its CM, and the RJD, with the support of the Congress and other socialist parties, has decided on Rabri Devi taking the reins again. President's Rule is on in the state until a majority formula can be reached.

Chattisgarh (11 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Raman Singh
STATE GOVERNMENT: Bharatiya Janata Party (Elected December 2003)
OPPOSITION: Indian National Congress
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP10
INC1
Assessment: If anything else, Chattisgarh did not fail to continue as a BJP winner after the 2003 Assembly Elections. This will likely remain a safe territory until the next elections.

Delhi (7 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Sheila Dikshit
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress (Elected December 2003)
OPPOSITION: Bharatiya Janata Party
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP1
INC6
Assessment: This was one of the major damage zones for the BJP. It was surprising to analysts who expected a split ticket. Instead, The Dikshit government's strong support from voters may have helped to secure a wash-out of the BJP MP's, from 7 down to 1, all gains for the Congress, reflecting the victory of the INC in 2003 Assembly Elections.

Goa (2 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: President's Rule
STATE GOVERNMENT: President's Rule (Since March 2005)
Next Elections: 2007
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP1
INC1
Assessment: A stiff fight in the Mormugao cons. led to the loss of that seat for the BJP, although they still kept the Panaji seat easily. After ruling for 5 years, the BJP's Manohar Parrikar was dismissed in a motion of no confidence, with the Congress utilizing its governor to immediately install a Congress Government. The BJP used its own tactics to ensure the government did not win its confidence vote. The controversy over the actions of the Governor of Goa, a Congress politician, led him with no other option than asking for President's Rule

Gujarat (26 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Narendra Modi
STATE GOVERNMENT: Bharatiya Janata Party (Elected 2002)
OPPOSITION: Indian National Congress
Next Elections: 2007
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP14
INC12
Gujarat: Why did the BJP stronghold end up being a split state? Well, many attribute it to the 2002 communal violence. However, the BJP held most of the affected constituencies, and never had Muslim support in the state. The real reason, some analysts say, was farmer anger against Modi's pro-industry policies, which led to defeat in some of the more rural constituencies. Still, the infiltration of the Congress into traditional BJP turf is cause for alarm.

Haryana (10 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Bhupendra Singh Hooda
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress (Elected 2005)
OPPOSITION: Indian National Lok Dal, BJP
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP1
INC9

Assessment: Haryana neatly fell into the Congress lap after a wipe-out in the last elections. Anti-incumbency against the Chautala Government was strong, and the BJP did not want to be near it. However, neither the INLD or BJP could do very well. The margins of victory for the Congress were very safe in all constituencies. In 2005, this was repeated, as the Congress secured as a safe majority.

Himachal Pradesh (4 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Virbhadra Singh
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress (Elected 2003)
OPPOSITION: Bharatiya Janata Party
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP1
INC3
Assessment: A slight swing from 1999, with the Congress benefitting. This would reflect that not much changed in local attitude since the BJP government was voted out about one year before.

Jammu & Kashmir (6 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Mufti Muhammad Sayeed
STATE GOVERNMENT: People's Democratic Party and Indian National Congress Alliance, 2.5-year Chief Ministership sharing agreements, supported by outside parties (CPI-M, PDF, etc.) (Elected 2002)
OPPOSITION: Jammu & Kashmir National Conference, BJP
Next Elections: 2007
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
JKN2
INC2
PDP1
IND1
Assessment: With a strong tie-up between the PDP and Congress and a snap between the JKN and BJP, the two BJP seats were wrested by the Congress. The PDP brought in the popular Mehbooba Mufti, while the JKN may look to revival under Omar Abdullah. Ladakh voters preferred an independent, home-grown politician. As 2006 Elections approach, the JKN has shown some overtures to the BJP once again, with nothing final.

Jharkhand (14 seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Arjun Munda
STATE GOVERNMENT: Bharatiya Janata Party and Allies (Elected 2005)
OPPOSITION: INC, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, RJD
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
INC6
JMM4
RJD2
BJP1
CPI1
Assessment: Flowing with popular predictions, Jharkhand showed an anti-incumbent mood and went for the Congress-JMM-RJD combine in the state, its first LS election to date. However, following that, the 2005 Assembly Elections surprised completely, with the BJP, after a major political coup d'etat, putting its own government in place. Its government is propped by its alliance partners, which includes JD-U, AJSU, and others.

Karnataka (28 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Dharam Singh
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress-Janata Dal-Secular(Elected May 2004)
OPPOSITION: Bharatiya Janata Party
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
INC8
BJP18
JD(S)2
Assessment: BJP's hopes of forming its first stand-alone government in South India was hampered by the Janata Dal (Secular), which made a pathetic showing in the Lok Sabha but received results in the assembly. The end results showed the BJP ahead in the assembly, but the Congress quickly worked to ally themselves with the JD-S, the first time it has had to form a coalition in the state. Tensions may rise, as the Congress showed Party Chief Deve Gowda the door as Prime Minister.

Kerala (20 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: AK Antony
STATE GOVERNMENT: United Democratic Front (Congress Alliance) (Elected 2001)
OPPOSITION: Left Democratic Front (CPM, CPI, etc.)
Next Elections: 2006
Assessment:
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
CPM12
CPI3
MUL1
KEC1
IND1
IFDP1
Assessment: Anti-incumbency on the horizon? The Congress was nearly wiped clean, aside from a seat for its ally, the MUL. The NDA was on fair terms, despite its hope of a BJP seat in Trivandrum ending up washed out once again, its ally the IFDP gained on seat. The big gainers were the CPM-CPI combine, which have been representative of Communist resurgence in many states. This may bode well for a Left Government in 2006.

Madhya Pradesh (40 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Babulal Gaur
STATE GOVERNMENT: Bharatiya Janata Party (Elected December 2003)
OPPOSITION: INC
Next Elections: 2008
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP25
INC4
Assessment: With little chance for anti-incumbency against the Bharati Government, the BJP strengthened its hold over the state. Uma Bharati resigned in late 2004 in a dramatic episode, and handed the reins over to a hand-picked successor. Rumors about her returning to the post are not out of the question.

Maharashtra (48 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Vilasrao Deshmukh
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress-Nationalist Congress Party Alliance (Elected 2004)
OPPOSITION: BJP-Shiv Sena
Next Elections: 2009
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
Shiv Sena12
BJP13
NCP9
INC13
RPI(A)1
Assessment: Another split state. The anti-incumbency against both the NDA and the Congress Alliance cancelled each other out? In any case, it is now up to both factions to go back to the drawing board and prepare for the upcoming state elections this year, because both have a fair shot of coming out on top.
In late 2004, the NDA was upset in a close race, as the INC-NCP came out on top, although barely. In fact, their winning alliances will require the support of 'others' to push over the halfway mark. Among the big issues of this alliance is the fact that the INC received the CM's chair, despite the NCP winning 2 more seats. The Congress was quick to change the Chief Minister to bring in a new image with its new government.

Manipur
CHIEF MINISTER: Okram Ibobi Singh
STATE GOVERNMENT: Secular Progressive Front, led by the Indian National Congress (CPI, MSCP, NCP)

OPPOSITION: BJP, Samata Party, Federla Party of Manipur
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
INC1

Meghalaya (2 seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: D D Lapang
STATE GOVERNMENT: Meghalaya People's Forum, a coalition of the Indian National Congress, NCP and MDP OPPOSITION: UDP, BJP, Independents
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
AITC1
INC1

Mizoram
CHIEF MINISTER: Pu Zoramthanga
STATE GOVERNMENT: Mizo National Front (Member of the NDA) (2004)
OPPOSITION: Indian National Congress
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
MNF1

Assessment: In this 95% Christian state, the BJP pumped in financial support to the MNF and helped it back into a surprising re-election.

Nagaland
CHIEF MINISTER: Neiphi-u Rio
STATE GOVERNMENT: Northeast People's Front (Nagaland People's Front, BJP and allies) (2003)
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
NPF1

Orissa (21 seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Naveen Patnaik
STATE GOVERNMENT: Biju Janata Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party Alliance (Elected May 2004)
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJD11
BJP7
INC2
JMM1
Assessment: Orissa remains an NDA stronghold, as it did not succumb to the Congress wave at all, although the majority in the Assembly was slightly reduced.

Pondicherry
CHIEF MINISTER: N. Rangasamy
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
PMK1

Punjab (13 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Amarinder Singh
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress (Elected 2002)
Next Elections: 2007
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP3
INC2
SAD8
Assessmenth: Going along with expectations, anti-incumbency aganst Amarinder's regime caused a blow to the Congress Party. With that being done, this may get the ball rolling for a BJP-SAD government after the next Assembly elections.

Rajasthan (25 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Vasundhara Raje
STATE GOVERNMENT: Bharatiya Janata Party (Elected December 2003)
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP21
INC4
Assessment: As with Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh, anti-incumbency was impossible in Rajasthan at this point, and the BJP continued its stronghold over the state for the time being.

Sikkim
CHIEF MINISTER: Pawan Kumar Chamling
STATE GOVERNMENT: Sikkim Democratic Front (INC Ally) (Elected May 2004)
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
SDF1
Assessment: The SDF, a swaying ally of both coalitions, continues to keep a stronghold over both the Assembly and the lone Lok Sabha seat.

Tamil Nadu (39 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: J Jayalalithaa
STATE GOVERNMENT: AIADMK (Elected 2001)
Next Elections: 2006
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
DMK16
INC10
PMK5
MDMK4
CPM2
CPI2
Assessment: The 2004 elections saw a clean wipe-out of the BJP and the AIADMK. It is unlikely the BJP would have done well on its own, so the AIADMK became the only hope. Anti-incumbency is on a severe swing as J.J. has not shown much achievement as a Chief Minister. The DMK-PMK-MDMK combine is likely to enjoy the equation, as long as the Centre pays them some heed, and this could cause a change of hands in the next Assembly elections. As the 2006 elections approach, J. Jayalalitha has one option: to try damage control or face a massive vote-out.

Tripura
CHIEF MINISTER: Manik Sarkar
STATE GOVERNMENT: Communist Party of India-Marxist & Leftist Allies
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
CPM2

Uttaranchal (5 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Narayan Dutt Tiwari
STATE GOVERNMENT: Indian National Congress (Elected 2002)
Next Elections: 2007
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP3
INC1
SP1
Assessment: In its first Lok Sabha election, Uttaranchal has not proven to be a safe state for either party.

Uttar Pradesh (80 Seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Mulayam Singh Yadav
STATE GOVERNMENT: Samajwadi Party, with support from the Congress Party, CPI-M and numerous other factions in a large coalition government (Elected 2002)
Next Elections: 2007
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
BJP10
INC9
SP35
BSP19
RLD3
JD(U)1
NLP1
SJP(R)1
IND1
Assessment: Giant Uttar Pradesh did little to help either of the two major coalitions. The Samajwadi Party, as expected, will support the Congress Government, more or less to ensure a non-BJP Government and to ensure that the Congress continues to keep Mulayam Singh Yadav's Government intact in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP, which in its heyday received a clear majority of LS Seats from Uttar Pradesh, was even less lucky this time. The Bahujan Samaj Party continues to show its strength, as well, appealing to the backward castes. The Indian National Congress, hoping for resurgence with Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, saw its hopes dashed, as its vote bank once again opted for the SP and BSP en masse.

West Bengal (42 seats)
CHIEF MINISTER: Buddhadeb Bhattacharya (Communist Party of India-Marxist).
STATE GOVERNMENT: Left Front Coalition (Elected 2001)
Next Elections: 2006
PARTY2004 LS POSITION
CPM26
INC6
AIFB3
CPI3
RSP3
AITC1
Assessment: Was it worth it? Just like Tamil Nadu, the BJP's alliance in West Bengal did not do it much good. This may be due to Mamata Banerjee, who replaced almost all of her sitting MP's and was not getting the same support she had in the last elections. She remains the only NDA Lok Sabha member from West Bengal. The Left Front regained their authority over the state, and INC picked up some of the NDA remnants in a small resurgence. As 2006 approaches, the Left Government will most likely extend its decades-old rule on the state.

Other Union Territories
Andaman and Nicobar Islands: Indian National Congress
Chandigarh: Indian National Congress
Dadra and Nagar Haveli: BNP
Daman and Diu: Indian National Congress
Lakshadweep: Janata Dal (United)